two more analytical shorts from MKB

Iran ridicules EU’s oil sanctions
M K Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Jan 26 2012

China finally came out with a statement strongly critical of the EU sanctions against Iran’s oil exports. The FO spokesman in Beijing said the moves to put pressure on Iran and impose sanctions are not “constructive approaches”. The statement essentially takes the same line that Russia took, namely, nothing should detract from the expected talks between Iran and the “5+1″. Obviously, China will continue to import oil from Iran. Trade also will continue. Last year’s statistics show an increase of 55% in bilateral trade as compared to 2010. China’s oil imports from Iran in 2011 rose by 30%. There will be strong impetus for both sides to sustain the momentum in the economic ties. Meanwhile, has Europe bitten more than it could chew? The IMF is warning of increase of oil price to $140 due to the EU’s Iran sanctions. No wonder Tehran is reacting calmly to the EU’s histrionics. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton got some sound advice from the influential Iranian politician Alaeddin Broujerdi, chairman of the Iranian Majlis’ national security and foreign policy commission, who said she should stop playing “political games” and get serious. The matter can indeed get quite serious next week, even if Ashton refuses to get serious. The Majlis in Tehran is apparently mooting a proposal to put an embargo on oil exports to Europe. Now, the EU sanctions are supposed to come into effect only in July, so that the member countries can make alternate arrangements for their oil needs. Funnily, the Iranians are posing the question:

Why wait till July?

If Iran imposes oil sanctions against the EU, what will Obama do? Will he threaten to go to war with Iran unless Iran continues to export oil to Europe? The decent thing will be for Obama to make an offer to the European countries that the US will make up for the Iranian oil. Perhaps, he could also have a word with his predecessor Jimmy Carter on how to deal with the Iranians in an election year in the US. Meanwhile, Tehran is mending fences with the GCC states. Two deputy foreign ministers have been despatched to Kuwait and Abu Dhabi for consultations. Don’t be surprised if the Saudi-Iranian rhetoric also peters off. Clearly, the GCC states have a great deal to lose if tensions spiral up. They will pay attention to the latest warning by the Supreme Leader’s advisor and veteran Iranian statesman Ali Akbar Velayati to the effect that Iran and the GCC states are travelling on the same boat and they will ultimately swim or sink together.

USAian Islam on march in Middle East
M K Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Jan 27 2012

Qatari PM Sheikh Hamad bin Jasem Al Thani is personally leading the charge of the light brigade at Turtle Bay later today, with the Arab League transferring the flag to the US and its western allies to wage the diplomatic campaign for getting a UNSC mandate for outside intervention in Syria. A battle royal is about to commence at the UNSC later in the evening, which would have all the trappings of a cold war. Ironically, just before the curtain lifts in the UNSC, some fascinating news has begun trickling in from the Libyan deserts. Libya is splitting. The pro-Muammar Gaddafi Warfallah tribe, the dominant tribe in Bali Walid and the most populous in Libya, drove out a pro-government militia trained, equipped and financed by Qatar and its western mentors this week. The tribe has formed a tribal-based government and Tripoli has “recognised” it. This is apart from the trouble brewing in eastern Benghazi and elsewhere, as dissatisfaction erupts over the puppet government in Tripoli installed by Qatar and the US-led western powers.

But Sheikh Hamad has no time left for Libya anymore as he did his two bits there already, and he has been told to move on by his western mentors, now that the action turns to Syria. The show is over in Libya as long as western control has been established over the country’s great oil fields. Hamad has been told that the rest of the Libyan deserts could go to the dogs. So, Hamad is done with Libya. He removes his blood-stained overcoat and puts on a sparkling white apparel as he emplanes for New York on Saturday. Isn’t it tragic that Hamad and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in tow have arrogated to themselves the role of the flag carriers of democracy in the Muslim Middle East? The tragedy of the Muslims of the Middle East is actually their own petty autocrats who are shivering with fear within their petticoats about their own political survival if an avalanche of genuine reform overwhelms their lands. So, Hamad and Abdullah will do all that they can, no matter what it takes, to perpetuate western political, military, economic and cultural dominance of the region.

The diplomatic battle that is commencing in New York later today is of historic importance. Russia and China are coming under immense pressure as they are standing bang in the way of an overt western military intervention in Syria. If push comes to shove, will they use their veto to deny a UNSC mandate for western intervention? That’s the big question. We may know the answer in a few days. Quintessentially, the covert western-Turkish-Arab intervention in Syria so far needs to be legitimised and carried to its logical conclusion. Why should Muslims blame USAia for all their woes? They have only themselves to blame for allowing the likes of Hamad and Abdullah to represent their voice. What is the US’s game plan? Russia Today featured a brilliant analysis of the ABC of the so-called “Arab Spring”, explained succinctly by the British author and Arabist, John Bradley. In sum, the upheaval in the Muslim Middle East and the Shi’ite Sunni divide that has been triggered artificially is lending itself to creating the political environment for the planting of the germane seeds of “USAian Islam” in the Middle East. The grand design is to perpetuate western hegemony over the Muslim Middle East for yet another century under new local political dispensations. Autocrats like Hamad and Abdullah hope to survive in the bargain as the west’s sidekicks. Whether their fervent hopes of survival prove realistic or not, time will tell. My hunch is that as dregs on a plate, they will also be washed away once the west finesses the forces of USAian Islam in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

This is not about a Muslim or Arab renaissance in the Muslim Middle East. This is not about democracy in Muslim societies. This upheaval known as the Arab Spring is not even indigenous. It’s a Caesarian operation conducted with clinical perfection by the west on the Muslim lands. The result will be that the Koran that the Muslims of the Middle East may end up reading through the coming decades will be printed in the west, financed by Hamad and Abdullah. The Muslim world indeed deserves far better than this disgusting spectacle. A variant of the tragedy is appearing in the eastern edges of the Greater Middle East also, in Afghanistan. Qatar has been brought in by Washington for a repeat performance in the Hindu Kush. Taliban will be the rulers in Kabul except that they will be rehashed as Islamists, after jettisoning their archaic form of traditional Islam and once they begin to practise “USAian Islam”. Ambassador Ryan Crocker is right. This is not about breaking up Afghanistan, it is about “Islmaizing” Afghanistan.

In fact, Afghanistan’s unity becomes terribly important for the US geostrategy. Afghanistan should remain in its present form as a single geopolitical entity on the Central Asian chessboard with the ideological underpinnings of an islamic democracy or else the great game runs into cul-de-sac. Because, once the transformation of the Taliban is complete under the Qatari and USAian supervision,  Taliban will be the avant-garde of change in the Central Asian steppes to the north and the other outlying Muslim regions of Pakistan, and of the Kashmir regions of India where “USAian Islam” is straining to find expression. And if that happens, something like half of China’s vast territorial spaces inhabited by non-Han peoples, many of them Muslims, and Russia’s “soft underbelly” become ripe for change. And Pakistan and India say goodbye to their nascent hopes for retaining their strategic autonomy as independent states. Alas, Hamad and Abudllah have their counterparts among the Pakistani and Indian elites as well.

Paradoxically, therefore, what the US and its allies expect Russia and China (and India and Pakistan) to do in the UNSC is to remain passive onlookers of an enterprise that ultimately can turn out to be their own nemesis: implanting Islamism under US control as the life force in their body-polities. The grand design of the US is to get deeply embedded in the Greater Middle East in anticipation of a century through which Asia threatens to interrupt the west’s 500-year old exclusive global dominance. The west won’t give up its hegemony without a struggle. Controlling the Middle East is the key to the US global strategy. Without a weakening of Russia and China and India and Pakistan by exploiting their mutual contradictions, and smashing up the defiant Iranian regime which espouses justice and resistance, this march of history under Asian leadership can’t be arrested. Moscow is dead right, Syria is not a matter for Russia alone when the UNSC sits down today to debate a resolution paving the way for western intervention for the overthrow of the regime in Damascus. This matter is also for China, and for BRICS and Pakistan.

another instalment of pepe’s daily gloat about the oncoming petrodollar bust

The Iranian oil embargo blowback
Pepe Escobar, Asia Times, Jan 27 2012

If the sorry parade of European poodles, or what Chris Floyd delightfully dubbed Europuppies, had any understanding of Persian culture, they would have known that blowback for their declaration of economic war in the form of an Iranian oil embargo would be nothing short of heavy metal. Better yet; death metal. The Majlis will discuss this Sunday, in an open section, whether to cancel right away all oil exports to any European country that approved the embargo, according to Emad Hosseini, the rapporteur of the Majlis Energy Committee. And that comes with the requisite apocalyptic warning, relayed via the Fars news agency, courtesy of member of Parliament Nasser Soudani:

Europe will burn in the fire of Iran’s oil wells.

Soudani expresses the views of the whole Tehran establishment when he says:

The structure of their refineries is compatible with Iran’s oil. The embargo will cause an increase in oil prices, and the Europeans will be compelled to buy oil at higher prices. They will be compelled to buy Iran’s oil indirectly, through intermediaries.

According to the EU sanctions package, all existing contracts will be respected only until Jul 1, and no new contracts are allowed. Now imagine if this pre-emptive Iranian legislation is voted within the next few days. Crisis-hit Club Med countries such as Spain and especially Italy and Greece will be dealt a deathblow, having no time to find a possible alternative to Iran’s light, high-quality crude. Saudi Arabia, whatever the oily spin in Western corporate media, does not have the spare capacity; and on top of it, the absolute priority for the House of Saud is high oil prices, so it can bribe its own population into forgetting about noxious Arab Spring ideas, as well as repressing them. So yes, already broken European economies would be forced to keep buying Iranian oil, but now from the winners of choice: middlemen vultures.

Not surprisingly, the losers lost in these Cold War tactics anachronistically applied to a global open market are the Europeans themselves. Greece, already facing the abyss, has been buying heavily discounted oil from Iran. The strong possibility remains of the oil embargo precipitating a Greek government bond default, and even a catastrophic cascade effect in the eurozone: Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and beyond. The world needs a digital Herodotus to decode how these European poodles who claim to represent “civilization” were able, in a single stroke, to inflict simultaneous pain on Greece, the cradle of Western civilization itself, and Persia, one of the most sophisticated civilizations in history. In an astonishing historical replay of tragedy as farce, it’s as if Greeks and Persians were bonded together at the Thermopylae facing the onslaught of NATO armies. Now compare it with the action all across Eurasia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said:

Unilateral sanctions don’t help matters.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, exercising immense tact, nevertheless was unmistakable:

To blindly pressure and impose sanctions on Iran are not constructive approaches.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said:

We have very good relations with Iran, and we are putting much effort into renewing Iran’s talks with the 5+1 mediators’ group. Turkey will continue looking for a peaceful solution to the issue.

BRICS member India also dismissed sanctions, alongside Russia and China. India will keep buying Iranian oil and paying in rupees or gold. South Korea and Japan will inevitably extract exemptions from the Barack Obama administration. All across Eurasia trade is fast moving away from the US dollar. The Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, crucially, also means that Asia is slowly disengaging itself from Western banks. The movement may be led by China, but it’s irreversibly transnational. Once again, follow the money. BRICS members China and Brazil started bypassing the US dollar on trade in 2007. BRICS members Russia and China did the same in 2010. Japan and China, the top two Asian giants, did the same only last month. Only last week, Saudi Arabia and China rolled out a project for a giant oil refinery in the Red Sea. And India more or less secretly is deciding to pay for Iranian oil in gold, even bypassing the current middleman, a Turkish bank. Asia wants a new international system and it’s working for it. Inevitable long-term consequences: the US dollar, and crucially the petrodollar, slowly drifting into irrelevance. “Too Big to Fail” may turn out to be not a categorical imperative, but an epitaph.

’tis the time for high-budget biblical bollocks, obviously

Spielberg Near Commitment To
Direct Moses Epic For Warner Bros
Nikki Finke, Mike Fleming, Deadline, Jan 25 2012

Steven Spielberg is near to etching in stone with Warner Bros on that biopic portraying the Jewish leader as the warrior to beat all warriors. With a working title of Gods And Kings, what’s envisioned is “a movie like a Braveheart-ish version of the Moses story,” an insider tells us. “Him coming down the river, being adopted, leaving his home, forming an army, and getting the Ten Commandments.” And despite the awesome screen possibilities of the parting of the Red Sea, the movie isn’t being contemplated in 3D. Back in 1956, Paramount released The Ten Commandments in VistaVision to give moviegoers a more spectacular experience of scenes like that. But this film is as far from a remake of the Cecil B DeMille-directed epic as you can get, even though they cover similar ground. Instead Warner Bros wants Spielberg to direct it with the gritty reality of Saving Private Ryan, which is considered a masterpiece redefining battle movies. ”There have been glossy versions of the Moses story but this would be a real warrior story,” an insider tells us. The studio has wanted Spielberg on the project since last September when he first read the script. (See previous, Warner Bros Goes To The Mountaintop For Moses Epic.) Getting Spielberg seemed a long shot because his deals are always complex and his dance card is always full. Talks intensified, and now insiders tell us the dialogue should consummate by the end of the month. Warner Bros wants to start production sometime in Mar-Apr 2013.

Producer Matti Lesham came to the studio with a treatment that was bought for development. The film is being produced by Dan Lin and Lesham. The two writers are Stuart Hazeldine (the upcoming epic Paradise Lost for Legendary/Warner Bros and inspired by the John Milton poem) and Michael Green (co-writer of Warner Bros’ Green Lantern and the upcoming ABC midseason series The River for Spielberg). It’s the first time they’ve scripted together. Spielberg just finished directing Lincoln and is already working on Robopocalypse: both are DreamWorks pics co-financed by Twentieth Century Fox. Spielberg wants a big film next and this is it: Ten Commandments was one of the most profitable films of its era, grossing $65m in 1956, which in today’s dollars is equivalent to close to $1b. Spielberg helmed another seminal Jewish movie, Schindler’s List which won seven Oscars at the 66th Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Director. He was just overlooked for a Best Director nomination on Tuesday for War Horse even though it received a Best Picture nod. Meanwhile this marks the second high-profile film Warner Bros is developing on a seminal Jewish hero. Mel Gibson and Joe Eszterhas are collaborating on their pitch to tell the story of Jewish warrior Judah Maccabee, who teamed with his father and four brothers to lead the Jewish revolt against the Greek-Syrian armies that had conquered Judea in the 2nd century B.C. (sic – RB). Gibson has the first option to direct, and he will produce the film through his Icon Productions banner.

peace now’s migron file (video in hebrew only, so far)

See also here from three days ago – RB

The Migron File
Peace Now, Jan 26 2012

The agreement proposed to the Migron settlers this week by the Israeli Prime Minister has set a new precedent in the settlement enterprise. For the past 20 years the government has kept to its national and international commitments not to build any new settlements in the West Bank. Outposts that were set up in the West Bank were deemed illegal even under Israeli law, the state has consistently claimed they are to be evacuated and that the settlers in these outposts had no authorization or assistance from the state. In recent years we have witnessed expansion in settlements and the retroactive authorization of some outposts. Never in the past 20 years have we seen the Israeli government purposely plan and construct a brand new settlement deep inside the West Bank. It is clear that the Netanyahu govt has succumbed to the political pressure of Likud stalwarts and settler threats of violence, and has now offered the Migron residents an authorized government sponsored settlement 2 km from the original site, in return for cooperation in evacuating Migron. The evacuation of Migron ordered by the Israeli High Court to be implemented by Mar 2012, would likely only take place when such a new settlement is fully constructed, in many years’ time. Not only is Netanyahu rewarding settlers for clearly breaking Israeli law, establishing illegal outposts on Palestinian private land – but the reward he is to pay the settlers will be at the expense of a viable Palestinian state. Peace Now will not allow this to happen, and will oppose at with every possible means the postponement of the evacuation of Migron and the establishment of a new settlement for its residents. In addition we will continue to demand that the government complies with the decision of the High Court without further delay. Read more about the legal case here; download full Migron File (pdf) here.

Peace Now’posts a ‘Migron file’ on the internet
Tovah Lazaroff, JPost, Jan 26 2012

A new settlement is what you get when you “invade someone else’s land” and “refuse to evacuate,” stated Peace Now in a poster it published this week on the Internet against the Migron outpost. Settlers hit the Web this week as well with a YouTube video in support of legalizing Migron, which is slated for demolition in March. Peace Now struck back in virtual reality with the poster, a YouTube video and a file of information on the outpost. On Sunday, Netanyahu offered to authorize homes for Migron settlers on state land in an empty portion of the same hilltop on which their community is now situated. Peace Now has charged that such authorization would mark the first time in more than a decade that Israel has created a new settlement. Migron settlers have to date rejected the compromise and continued with their campaign to legalize the outpost in its present location. The High Court of Justice has ordered Migron’s demolition because it was built without the proper authorization and on land that the state has classified as belonging to private Palestinians. Migron residents have argued that the land’s status has never properly been adjudicated. They contend that it can be reclassified as state land under the laws of abandoned property and that some of the lots were purchased from Palestinians.

On Wednesday, Peace Now published a document on the Web called “The Migron File,” in which it took issue with the settlers’ claims. Before 1967, the outpost land was registered with the Jordanians under the name of Palestinian owners, according to Peace Now. The group’s Hagit Ofran said it was still listed in their name under the Civil Administration of Judea and Samaria. As part of “The Migron File,” Peace Now posted a photograph of the Palestinian land ownership papers for Migron lots on the Internet, with a stamp from the Civil Administration. It also included quotes from high-level IDF officials. According to Peace Now, Brig-Gen Kamil Abu Rukon, who formerly headed the Civil Administration said:

The land on which the buildings of the outpost were built is registered Palestinian land within the boundaries of the villages of Burka and Deir Dibwan.

It also quoted Eitan Broshi, the Defense Ministry’s settlement adviser in 2009, as saying:

The land in the outpost is registered land owned by Palestinian residents.

In “The Migron File,” Peace Now explained that the outpost was first constructed in 2001, when settlers received a permit to place a cellular antenna on the hilltop. It showed an aerial photograph from 2000, in which the hilltop appears to be empty. By 2003, according to another aerial photo, many of the outpost structures were already there. In 2006, Peace Now petitioned the High Court of Justice to demolish the outpost. At the time, according to the group, the state said:

Because the outpost is built on private land, there is no legal possibility to accept its existence. No one, as senior as they might be, had the authority to order the construction of the outpost.

Demolition of the outpost was staved off in 2008, when the Yesha Council made an agreement with the government to relocate the home to the nearby settlement of Geva Binyamin. The state never built the new homes, and Migron residents never accepted the offer. In Aug 2011, after Peace Now turned once again to the court, it ruled that the outpost must be demolished by March of this year. But attorney Amir Fisher, who represents the Migron settlers, said that the Palestinians now claiming ownership of the land were not the same Palestinians in whose name the land had been registered. “There is no argument that the land was registered to Palestinians,” he said, explaining that the question at hand was who now had the right to the land, the residents of Migron, or the Palestinians who claimed to have inherited it from the initial owners? He also took issue with Peace Now’s attack on the settlers as people who decided on their own to build Migron, or even worse, as people who “stole” the land. According to Fisher, Peace Now has ignored the fact that it was the state, with the help of the Construction and Housing Ministry, and not the settlers, who built Migron. He pointed to the 2005 report by attorney Talia Sasson on the outposts, which stated that the ministry had spent 4.325 million shekels on Migron. The outpost, which is located in the Binyamin region of the West Bank, just outside of Jerusalem, is now home to 50 families.

‘Ruling to raze Migron unjust, inhumane’
Yair Altman, Ynet, Jan 26 2012

Some 130 rabbis signed a letter addressed to Supreme Court President Dorit Beinish, urging her to reverse her ruling that the West Bank outpost of Migron should be razed, Ynet has learned Thursday. The rabbis said in the letter that the decision to destroy homes is “inhumane and unjust,” and warned that it undermines the public’s trust in the justice system. The rabbis wrote:

Any justice system understands that when a person builds on land that isn’t his without malice, especially when the ownership of the land is disputed, the home shouldn’t be destroyed.

The rabbis urged Beinish to annul the ruling, and instead require the residents of Migron to pay compensation to the owners of the land. Several prominent rabbis from across the religious spectrum have signed the letter, including Safed’s Chief Rabbi Shmuel Eliyahu, Tzohar Chairman Rabbi David Stav, Ohr Etzion Yeshiva head Rabbi Haim Druckman and Ramat Gan’s Chief Rabbi Yaakov Ariel. A source close to the initiative told Ynet:

We have rabbis here from all the religious movements and from across the country. There is a sense of distrust towards the court. It’s a dangerous situation and we don’t know where it will lead.

Some 200 rabbis sent the government a similar letter last month.

script kiddies at play

Israeli hacker team brings down Iranian websites
Yaakov Lappin, JPost, Jan 26 2012

Screenshot of hacked Iranian website

Israeli hackers brought down Iran’s Press TV website and two websites belonging to the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education on Thursday. The hackers, who call themselves IDF Team, said their actions were a response to a series of attacks on Israeli sites the previous day. Three additional Iranian sites were hacked and their servers altered to display an Israeli flag and anti-Arab text in English. Press TV, the Iranian regime’s English language satellite channel, was unavailable following the announcement by the hackers. The hackers wrote in a message:

At 16:30 Israel Clock the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education website will be down until further notice. In addition to Iran’s television network, broadcasting in English round-the-clock, based in Tehran that called Press TV will be down until further notice. Ahmadinejad what do you have to say about that?

The attack represents the latest chapter in an Internet feud that began early January when an Arab hacker published tens of thousands of Israeli credit card numbers on the Internet. Earlier, IDF Team told the JPost it was preparing a response after the websites of two Israeli hospitals, the Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer and the private Assouta hospital network, were taken offline on Wednesday. IDF Team has played a pivotal part in Israeli counter-strikes on high-profile Arab websites following attacks by Arab hackers. The team appears to have employed a combination of attacks to disable the Iranian websites on Thursday, by launching distributed denial-of-service attacks (DDoS) attacks and breaking into Iranian servers. On Wednesday, the Haaretz Hebrew website was downed by pro-Palestinian hackers. Haaretz said it saw a message claiming responsibility for the attack by hackers calling themselves “Anonymous Palestine.” The website of the financial news site The Marker was also unavailable Wednesday. Last week, Israeli hackers brought down the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency website and the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange site, in retaliation for a DDoS attack on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and the El Al websites.

this is just a paraphrase; i shall post verbatim when available

Iran won’t move toward nuclear weapon in 2012: ISIS report
Tabassum Zakaria, Mark Hosenball, Reuters, Jan 26 2012

Iran is unlikely to move toward building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, a draft report by David Albright’s ISIS said on Wednesday. The report, financed by a grant from the US Institute of Peace, said Iran had not made a decision to build a nuclear bomb. The institute has advised US and foreign governments about Iran’s nuclear capabilities and Albright is considered a respected expert on the issue. The report tracks closely with what is known of official US government assessments. US officials say Iran has not made the decision to build a nuclear weapon and that Iranian leaders haven’t made the decision because they have to weigh the cost and benefits of building a nuclear weapon. The ISIS report, which has not yet been publicly released, can be summarised as follows:

Iran is unlikely to decide to dash toward making nuclear weapons as long as its uranium enrichment capability remains as limited as it is today. Iran is unlikely to break out in 2012, in great part because it is deterred from doing so. Although Iran is engaged in nuclear hedging, no evidence has emerged that the regime has decided to build nuclear weapons. Such a decision may be unlikely to occur until Iran is first able to augment its enrichment capability to a point where it would have the ability to make weapon-grade uranium quickly and secretly. Iran’s essential challenge remains developing a secure capability to make enough weapon-grade uranium, likely for at least several nuclear weapons.

Among possible policy options for halting Iran’s nuclear program, one of the least likely to be successful is a military attack on its nuclear program. Limited military options, such as airstrikes against nuclear facilities, are oversold as to their ability to end or even significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program. Limited bombing campaigns would be unlikely to destroy Iran’s main capability to produce weapon-grade uranium. Iran has taken precautions by dispersing the centrifuges it uses for enrichment to multiple locations, has mastered the construction of centrifuges, and has probably stockpiled extra centrifuges. A bombing campaign that did not totally eliminate these capabilities would leave Iran able to quickly rebuild its nuclear program and even motivate it to set up a Manhattan Project-style crash program to build a bomb, which would only make the region more dangerous and unstable.

Clandestine intelligence operations aimed at detecting secret Iranian nuclear activities, including the construction of new underground sites, are vitally important. Known methods used by spy agencies include the recruitment of secret agents, cyber spying operations, overhead surveillance by satellites and drones, and bugging of equipment which Iran buys from foreign suppliers. Another well-known tactic used by Western spy agencies against Iran has been to infiltrate Iranian networks that smuggle nuclear-related equipment and supply them with plans or items which are faulty or sabotaged. This tactic has helped the West to uncover at least one of Iran’s secret nuclear sites and, according to official statements by the Iranians, has caused enrichment centrifuges to break. Other more violent covert operations strategies, particularly the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers, have serious downsides and implications, such as high risks of Iranian retaliation through militant attacks which could be directed against civilian targets. Since thousands of specialists are involved in the Iranian nuclear program, assassinations are unlikely to be effective in slowing it down. Iran could construe assassinations as acts of war and use them to justify retaliation.

‘lean and agile’: global gangsters ‘r’ us

Bin Laden raid commander seeks global expansion
Kimberley Dozier, AP, Jan 26 2012

As traditional military operations are cut back, the Pentagon is moving to expand the worldwide reach of the US Special Operations Command to strike back wherever threats arise, or better yet, enable local forces to do the job. US officials say the Pentagon and the White House have embraced a proposal by special operations chief Adm McRaven to send troops that are withdrawing from war zones to reinforce special operations units in areas somewhat neglected during the decade-long focus on al-Qaida. Sec Def Panetta shared few details in the new Pentagon budget he outlined Thursday, but officials explained the nascent plan in greater detail to AP. McRaven started working last fall to sell defense leaders on a plan to beef up his existing “Theater Special Operations Commands,” as they are known, to reposition staff and equipment for the post-Iraq and Afghan war era. The stepped-up global network would add top special operations personnel to these key global sites, better able to launch unilateral raids. As major troop cuts are announced to the regular US military, the expanded special operations presence would also enable closer cross-training and mentoring with foreign armies for joint operations.

The idea tracks with the White House goal to transform the US military into a smaller, more agile force, able to respond to a wide variety of threats beyond traditional military enemies, often in partnership with local allies. Even as US officials outlined cuts to much of the military, Panetta has said funding for special operations and intelligence gathering will increase, both emerging as the Obama White House’s preferred way to confront many global threats, after a decade of costly land invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Pentagon’s and the White House’s acceptance of the plan shows how McRaven has turned the chaos of looming defense cuts into an opportunity to step up the Special Operations Command’s reach and possibly its authority. The special operation command’s main responsibility now is to provide resources and personnel to the geographic combatant commanders. Technically, the special operations command has limited authority to respond to worldwide threats, only taking charge of individual operations if directed by the president or secretary of defense. The strengthened overseas network could serve as a practical first step to give McRaven a greater say in those overseas operations on a more frequent basis.

Rather than adding troops to the overall force, McRaven wants to be able to more quickly dispatch some of the units where they are needed. Right now, such moves have to filter through a bureaucratic process through layers of Pentagon authority, which in some cases can delay deploying extra special operations troops or assets where they are needed by weeks or months. Those troops could carry out raids or, more likely, work with local allies to teach them how to target regional enemies. The theater commands would also work to preserve close ties with allies from the NATO coalitions now breaking apart with the winding down of the wars. The notion of a stronger special operations network drew a mixed review from Human Rights Watch, which has called on the Obama White House to turn over the CIA’s covert action against terror suspects to military control. Andrea Prasow, counterterrorism counsel for Human Rights Watch, which has also pushed for the White House to make public how a suspect ends up on the target list, said:

If it means handing more over to the military, it could be an improvement from a transparency perspective. But if the public still cannot find out what’s happening, it’s not good enough.

short and sweet

Israel’s Refusal to Present Borders
with Palestinian State Marks End of Talks
Saed Bannoura, IMEMC, Jan 26 2012

The recent talks between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators have reached a standstill, with the Israeli negotiators refusing to present borders between Israel and a future Palestinian state. With the deadline set for Thursday Jan 26 by Palestinian negotiators, and no progress having been made, the talks have been declared a failure. Since the state of Israel was created in 1948, the Israeli government has never declared its borders, and has continually expanded its territory through the use of force. Currently, the Israeli military controls more than 85% of historic Palestine, and Israeli settlements continue to expand further onto Palestinian land in violation of international law. During the five exploratory meetings between Israeli and Palestinian officials in Amman over the last several weeks, the Palestinian Authority leaders attempted to get a commitment from Israeli officials on firm borders between an Israeli and Palestinian state, but Israel’s representative to the meetings, Isaac Molho, refused to present a position on the issue of borders. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the King of Jordan that the talks were unproductive given Israel’s refusal to present any option on the border issue, and plans to meet with other Arab leaders next week to plan the next steps. Abbas said he will not close the door on potential negotiations with the Israelis, if the Israeli government shows a willingness to present borders as a starting point for any future talks. Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh said that he is hesitant to declare the talks a failure, adding that he plans to consult with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the Quartet for Middle East Peace on the next steps. Previous attempts at negotiations ended with Israeli pledges to end settlement construction, but those pledges were quickly broken, often before the talks were even completed. Over 500,000 Israelis have moved into settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, most of whom have moved into settlements in the nineteen years since the Oslo Agreement was signed to declare an end to the conflict, in direct violation of that agreement.

pepe further demolishes the iranian war scenario

All that glitters is … oil
Pepe Escobar, Asia Times, Jan 25 2012

In his State of the Union address, Obama said:

Let there be no doubt: USAia is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.

In the real world, this means Washington is willing to go to war against a country that subscribes to the NPT and is not seeking nuclear weapons, according to the IAEA and the latest US National Intelligence Estimate. The economic war is already on. Obama also said:

The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent.

Isolated? Not really. And it’s not the Iranian leadership that is subjected to crippling sanctions; it’s the absolute majority of 78 million impoverished Iranians who will pay the price. In an earlier statement, Obama had “applauded” the EU’s decision to slap its own Iranian oil embargo, adding:

These sanctions demonstrate once more the unity of the international community.

So, let’s talk about the “unity of the international community,” which comprises the US, the NATO countries, Israel and the GCC. The rest of the world is just a mirage. BRICS members India and China, together, buy at least 40% of Iran’s oil exports, roughly 1m b/d. That’s 12% of India’s oil needs. As for China, last year it bought 30% more oil from Iran than in 2010, an average of 557,000 b/d. The real “international community” is now very much aware that India will start paying Iranian oil with gold, and not only rupees, via Indian state bank UCO and Turkish state bank Halk Bankasi. Beijing, which already trades with Iran in yuan, may also turn to gold. Needless to say, both Delhi and Beijing are major gold producers and holders of gold assets. Talk about the Year of the Dragon starting with a bang. And talk about the new Year of the Dragon gold standard. Everyone remembers the doomed UN oil-for-food program that starved Iraqis to death for years prior to the 2003 US invasion/occupation. Average Iraqis paid the terrible price for UN/US sanctions, and oil-for-food only benefited the Saddam Hussein system. Now it’s a much more serious business; the oil-for-gold program, a BRICS + Iran initiative that will benefit the Islamic Republic leadership and perhaps alleviate the effects of sanctions over the Iranian population. Global consequences: gold shooting up, petrodollar going down, oil traders opening bottles of Moet in droves.

Another BRICS member, Russia, is already trading with Iran in rials and roubles. And an aspiring BRICS member, Turkey, also a NATO member, will not follow the US/EU sanctions unless they are imposed by the UNSC, a no-no because permanent members Russia and China would veto it. In two months, Putin, who angers/terrifies Washington and Brussels to Vlad the Impaler levels, is certain to be back as president of Russia. That’s when the Atlanticist poodles will see real hardball at play. Meanwhile, Tehran will never bow down to Western sanctions, much less with multiple lateral/underground mechanisms to sell its oil involving three BRICS members plus US allies Japan and South Korea, which eventually will get exemptions from the Obama administration. As this never was about a non-existent nuclear weapon, the Tehran leadership only has to follow a supreme strategic parameter; don’t fall for any provocation or false flag black ops that would provide the casus belli for a US/British/Israel axis of war attack. And all this while trends in the overcast horizon point to what could be dubbed an Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, which for many sharp minds in the developing world might pave the way for an energy-backed currency used by the BRICS and the Group of 77 (G-77) to counter the increasingly desperate and clueless Atlanticist West. Back to the European poodle parade, one just has to examine the joint statement issued by these mediocrity monstrosities Cameron, Merkel and Sarkozy. The trio said:

We have no quarrel with the Iranian people.

Iraqis heard exactly the same thing from another set of mediocrities in 2002 and 2003. Then their country was invaded, occupied and destroyed.

two nifty short analyses from MKB

China cagey on Iran sanctions
M K Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Jan 25 2012

Xinhua has come out with a nuanced commentary on the implications of the EU sanctions against Iran. The commentary keeps China’s thinking and approach to the emergent situation under wraps and blithely immerses itself in the realms of speculation. Tehran won’t like its tone, which is that China is hedging despite all those brave opinion pieces in the recent weeks as to where Beijing’s principled and unwavering stance lies. The Xinhua commentary makes the following points:

1. The EU sanctions constitute a heavy blow for Iran’s economy no matter its pretensions to the contrary.
2. The US and EU are together in this; that is, China doesn’t buy Iran’s thesis that EU is a divided house
3. However, there is no certainty that Iran will buckle under pressure on the nuclear issue, given its objective of gaining mastery over full nuclear fuel cycle.
4. The EU has left loop holes in the sanctions regime so that oil trade is not affected immediately and a point of no return is not reached.
5. Iran, in turn, may also try to ease tensions with the west.
6. Iran may cultivate non-European markets: Turkey, Japan, South Korea and India have been mentioned, but not China, which increased its oil imports from Iran by 30% last year.
7. The EU is preoccupied with its economic crisis and the Iran sanctions is a sideshow.
8. No big rise in oil price is expected in immediate terms although increase in price is likely in the medium term.

Why such a commentary with such a high dose of glasnost? The most charitable explanation could be that Beijing is thinking hard over an evolving situation where the two parties, the west and Iran, are notorious for their pragmatism. Meanwhile, it is a bit of psywar, too, to put Tehran on the backfoot while the Chinese negotiators are driving a hard bargain on the pricing for this year’s contracts for purchase of Iranian oil. Reports say Chinese negotiators are dragging their feet and stretching the bargaining so as to strike a deal from a position of advantage. In sum, China sees Iranians in some distress and would expect them to sell their crown jewels at a bargain price. This is going to be a testy period for China-Iran relations, since both protagonists possess legendary skills in the art of the bazaar.

US-Pak ties heading for makeover
M K Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Jan 25 2012

The latest 2-month old round of tensions in US-Pakistan relations may have seen the high tide and the turn. Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar receiving US ambassador Cameron Munter on Tuesday means spring is in the air. Pakistan is lifting its embargo on US AfPak rep Marc Grossman landing in Islamabad. US patience is paying off. The fracas over the Nov 26 NATO attack on Pakistan is also petering off, the two sides agreeing to disagree as to what really happened on that fateful day/night. Actually, the difference has narrowed down to whether the US was entirely at fault or only partly so. No military owns mistakes fully. However, that won’t prevent the US and Pakistan from resuming dealings. We may expect NATO convoys using Pakistani transit routes, intelligence cooperation, sophistry over drone attacks, etc. It’s a matter of sequencing. The US is under strong compulsion to deal with the Pakistani military directly, not through third parties such as the Taliban or Pervez Musharraf. The US has almost 100% accepted Pakistan’s viewpoint on how to bring the Afghan war to an end. Washington has high-level contacts directly with the Taliban headed by Mullah Omar, the “good Taliban” living in Kabul, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and even the Haqqani network. Now, Pakistan had suggested all this many years ago. The only hitch is whether these contacts are for real, or are surreal. Only Pakistan can tell. So, it is important that in the quickest possible way, US talks to Pakistan before such irrevocable steps are taken as the release of Taliban leaders from Guantanamo Bay. But the big question is whether the heavy cloud of suspicion, popularly called the ‘trust deficit’, is going to lift anytime soon. The answer is ‘No’. From the Pakistani viewpoint, the US’s obscure dealings with the Pakistani Taliban remain a matter of concern. So indeed does the US’s willingness to accommodate Pakistan’s legitimate interests in Afghanistan. Also, Pakistan needs clarity regarding the US’s intentions. A US military presence on a long-term footing poses dangers for Pakistan’s security. The US’s accent on India’s primacy in the Indian Ocean, etc. is unacceptable, too. Meanwhile, there is no harm talking with the US during the twilight zone, as the final countdown begins for army chief Ashfaq Kayani’s tumultuous tenure.