Obama faces a Persian rebuff (extracts)
M K Bhadrakumar, Asia Times, Jul 1 2009
The Iranian regime shows every sign of closing ranks and pulling its act together in the face of what it assessed to be an existential threat to the vilayat-e faqih. Khamenei in a veiled warning said:
Some European and American officials with their idiotic remarks about Iran are speaking as if their own problems have all been resolved and Iran remains the only issue for them.
He added that the ground on which European and American officials stood inevitably gets “soiled.” The “red line” for Tehran through the past three decades has always been any foreign attempt at forcing regime change. That line has been breached. The Iranian security establishment has begun digging deeper and deeper into what really happened. Gholam Hossein Nohseni Ejei, the powerful Intelligence Minister, has alleged from available data that there has been a concerted attempt to stir up unrest by world powers that were “upset about a stable and secure Iran,” and plots to assassinate Iranian leaders. Uncomfortable questions will arise in the coming days and weeks. Doubts arise already about the mysterious death of Neda Aqa-Soltan. Again, the dead included eight trained Basiji militiamen. Who killed them? Indeed, who led the charge of the light brigade? It is a little-known slice of history that in the countdown to the Anglo-American coup in Tehran against Mohammed Mosaddeq in 1953, the CIA lost its nerve just as the Tehran street protests were about to be staged, but the British intelligence outpost in Cyprus which coordinated the entire operation held firm, forced the pace and ultimately created a fait accompli for Washington. Tehran is going after Britain, “the most treacherous of foreign powers,” to use Khamenei’s words. Marching orders have been given to two British diplomats posted in Tehran, and four local employees working in the British Embassy remain under detention for questioning.
If the rumor was that the intriguing silence of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani meant he was plotting in the holy city of Qom and challenging Khamenei’s writ, it was not to be so. On Sunday, Rafsanjani openly came out with a statement endorsing Khamenei. We see the unmistakable contours of an understanding:
The developments following the presidential vote were a complex conspiracy plotted by suspicious elements with the aim of creating a rift between the people and the Islamic establishment and causing them to lose their trust in the system. Such plots have always been neutralized whenever the people have entered the scene with vigilance.
He lauded Khamenei for endorsing the Guardian Council’s move to extend the deadline by five days to review issues pertaining to the election and removing ambiguities:
This valuable move by the leader to restore the people’s confidence in the election process was very effective.
In a separate meeting with a delegation of majlis members on Thursday, Rafsanjani said his attachment to Khamenei is “endless” and that he enjoys a close relationship with the supreme leader and he fully complies with velayat-e faqih. On Saturday, the Expediency Council, which is headed by Rafsanjani, called on defeated candidates to “observe the law and resolve conflicts and disputes through legal channels.” Mohsen Rezai, the opposition candidate and former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and former majlis speaker Nateq-Nouri, the leading pillar in Iranian politics, have also reconciled. Thus, Mousavi stands isolated. The Guardian Council ordered a partial recount of 10% of random ballot boxes across the country in front of state television cameras, which confirmed late on Monday evening the result of the Jun 12 poll and advised the Interior Ministry:
The Guardian Council after studying the issues dismisses all the complaints received, and approves the accuracy of the 10th presidential election.
If the prognosis was that the speaker of the majlis Ali Larijani was showing promise as a potential dissident leader, it also has been debunked. On Monday, while addressing the executive committee meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference at Algiers, Larijani lashed out at the US policy of “interfering” in the internal affairs of Middle East countries. He advised Obama to abandon such policy:
This change will be beneficial both to the region and to the US itself.
Sustained criticism and pressure mounted by networks of anti-Iranian groups and powerful lobbies ensconced within the US Congress and the political class, and quarters within the security establishment which have an old score to settle with Tehran, have forced Obama to harden his stance. Softening the hard stance will be difficult. Nitpickings such as the denial of a visa for the Iranian Vice President Parviz Davoudi to visit New York to attend the UN conference on the world economic crisis do not help. Nor will the US’s likely decision to pursue the sanctions route towards Iran at the forthcoming G8 summit in Trieste on Jul 8-10. In May, Iran surpassed Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter from the Persian Gulf to China. The regional milieu can only work to Iran’s advantage. Iraq remains dangerously poised. US prospects in Afghanistan range from possible defeat to mere avoidance of defeat. Turkey has distanced itself from the European stance regarding the recent developments in Iran. Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan have greeted Ahmadinejad’s victory. Moscow eventually concluded the regime wasn’t threatened. China emerges as the absolute “winner” in correctly assessing from day one the undercurrents of Iran’s obscure revolutionary politics. Beijing has never before expressed so openly such staunch solidarity with the Iranian regime in warding off Western pressure. Neither Syria nor Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza showed any inclination to disengage from Iran. True, Syria’s ties with Saudi Arabia have improved in the past six months, and Damascus welcomes the Obama administration’s recent overtures. But far from adopting the Saudi or US agenda toward Tehran, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem questioned the legitimacy of the street protests in Tehran. He warned last Sunday, when Tehran streets were witnessing unrest:
Anyone betting on the fall of the Iranian regime will be a loser. The Islamic revolution is a reality, deeply rooted in Iran, and the international community must live with that.
Moallem called for the “establishment of a dialogue between Iran and the United States based on mutual respect and non-interference in Iran’s affairs.” Equally, success for Saad Hariri as the newly elected prime minister of Lebanon, and the country’s overall stability, will hinge on his reconciliation with rivals allied to Syria and Iran. The Obama administration will now deal with a Khamenei who is at the peak of his political power in all his past two decades as supreme leader. As for Ahmadinejad, he will now negotiate from a position of unprecedented strength. Ahmadinejad left hardly anything to interpretation when he stated in Tehran on Saturday:
Without doubt, Iran’s new government will have a more decisive and firmer approach towards the West. This time the Iranian nation’s reply will be harsh and more decisive.
He added that it will aim at making the West regret its “meddlesome stance.”