Military: Thousands of troops needed to secure Syrian chemical sites
Barbara Starr, CNN, Feb 22 2012
The US military has calculated it could take more than 75,000 ground troops to secure Syria’s chemical warfare facilities if they were at risk of being looted or left unguarded, CNN has learned. The conclusion comes from a military analysis of options for Syria that the DoD is preparing for president should he request it, according to a senior US official. Securing Syria’s chemical sites would be “extraordinarily difficult” given the scope of the problem, another official told CNN. The US military believes there are 50 chemical weapon and production sites spread across the country with additional storage sites and research centers as well. The cities of Hama, Homs and al Safira, and the port city of Latakia are all believed to house production facilities. The analysis was provided by CENTCOM, which has been considering how the US military would handle potential scenarios should US troops be called in. While the number is large, any actual deployment should it ever come to that would undoubtedly be significantly smaller than the planning suggested. Officials continue to insist the US position is to push for a diplomatic solution. White House spokesman Carney said on Wednesday:
In terms of a military action to secure a part of the country, that is not currently a policy we are pursuing.
The US intelligence community currently believes Syria’s weapons sites are secured by the regime, DNI Clapper told Congress last week. But the senior official who spoke to CNN said the “nightmare scenario” is what would happen if that situation changes and the regime suddenly fall apart, or the fighting gets to the point that the international community believes military intervention is necessary to secure the chemical weapons. In that type of conflict scenario, in which US or other countries’ troops would be entering a hostile environment, air power would also have to be used to destroy Syria’s air defenses, which are considered to be capable. That portion of any campaign could take weeks. Another DoD official told CNN’s Chris Lawrence last week:
While the US continues to monitor the overall situation in Syria, there are ongoing discussions specific to the location of, and security around, the various components of their chemical weapons program.
Leonard Specter of the Monterey Institute of International Studies said:
Syria probably has one of largest programs in the world. It has multiple types of chemical agents. Stocks include WW1-era gases like chlorine and phosgene as well as more modern nerve gases.
The DoD official said:
We are paying particular attention to the possibility of the weapons falling into the hands of extremists, in the event the government loses control of certain areas or splinters among itself.
In such a case, Clapper said:
There would be kind of a vacuum that would lend itself to extremists operating in Syria which is particularly troublesome in light of the large network of CBW storage facilities and other related facilities that there are in Syria.
The senior DoD official said US military commanders are continuing to strongly advocate for a political and diplomatic option in Syria rather than a military one. Joint Chiefs chair Dempsey and Clapper have already voiced concerns publicly about arming opposition groups who are not well known to the US. But the official also notes the Assad regime itself still has military cards to play. So far the regime has not used its chemical or biological capability or any military aviation units against protestors. If Syrian attack helicopters were called in, he said, “that would be very significant.” Dempsey said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria:
They haven’t demonstrated any interest or any intent to use those.
