the pretext develops: assad’s nerve gases, bla bla bla

State Dept quietly warning region on Syrian WMDs
Josh Rogin, Foreign Policy.com, Feb 24 2012

The State Dept has begun coordinating with Syria’s neighbors to prepare for the handling of Pres Assad’s extensive weapons of mass destruction if and when his regime collapses. This week, the State Dept sent a diplomatic demarche (sic – RB) to Syria’s neighbors Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, warning them about the possibility of Syria’s WMDs crossing their borders and offering US government help in dealing with the problem, three Obama administration officials confirmed. For concerned parties both inside and outside the US government, the demarche signifies that the US is increasingly developing plans to deal with the dangers of a post-Assad Syria, while simultaneously highlighting the lack of planning for how to directly bring about Assad’s downfall. Syria is believed to have a substantial chemical weapons program, which includes mustard gas and sophisticated nerve agents, such as sarin gas, as well as biological weapons. Syria has also refused IAEA requests to make available facilities that were part of its nuclear weapons program and may still be in operation.

The State Dept declined to provide access to any officials to discuss the private diplomatic communication on the record, such as the author of the demarche Asst Sec State for International Security and Nonproliferation Tom Countryman. In a meeting with reporters earlier this year, Countryman expressed confidence that the US knows where Syria’s WMD stockpiles are, but warned that they could become a very serious security issue for Syria and the region going forward. Countryman said:

We have ideas as to the quantity and we have ideas as to where they are. We wish some of the neighbors of Syria to be on the lookout. When you get a change of regime in Syria, it matters what are the conditions, chaotic or orderly.

Today a State Dept official offered the following statement:

The US and our allies are monitoring Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. These weapons’ presence in Syria undermines peace and security in the Middle East, and we have long called on the Syrian government to destroy its chemicals weapons arsenal and join the Chemical Weapons Convention. We believe Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile remains under Syrian government control, and we will continue to work closely with like-minded countries to prevent proliferation of Syria’s chemical weapons program.

The demarche made four specific points, according to other US officials. It communicated the US government’s recognition that there is a highly active chemical warfare program in Syria, which is complemented by ballistic-missile delivery capability. It further emphasized that that any potential political transition in Syria could raise serious questions about the regime’s control over proliferation-sensitive material. Third, the State Dept wanted Syria’s neighbors to know that should the Assad regime fall, the security of its WMD stockpile, as well as its control over conventional weapons like MANPADS (shoulder-fired rocket launchers), could come into question and could pose a serious threat to regional security. Lastly, the demarche emphasized that the US government stands ready to support neighboring countries to provide border-related security cooperation. The administration is also working closely with the Jordanians on the issue. A Jordanian military delegation was at the Pentagon Thursday to meet with Sec Def Panetta. In addition to the danger of proliferation, there is a concern that Assad could actually use his WMDs if his situation becomes desperate. One administration official said:

It’s essentially a recognition of the danger to the regional and international community of the stockpiles that the regime possesses and the importance of working with countries, given the potential fall of the regime, to prevent the proliferation of these very sensitive weapons outside of Syria’s border. It’s an exponentially more dangerous program than Libya. We are talking about legitimate WMDs here. This isn’t Iraq. The administration is really concerned about loose WMDs. It’s one of the few things you could put on the agenda and do something about without planning the fall of the regime. The WMD program is in play now, and that’s important because it highlights the innate danger that the existence of this regime poses to US security and regional interests. This puts Syria’s neighbors on notice and it reflects the recognition that a dangerous Assad regime is willing to do anything to save its own skin. If they are willing to kill the country to save the regime, they might be willing to do a great deal more damage throughout the region.

Some officials inside and outside the administration see the WMD activity as helpful, but lament that such a high degree of planning is not taking place on the issue of how to precipitate the downfall of the Assad regime as quickly and as safely as possible. Over 70 countries met in Tunis today to develop a unified message on the transition of power in Syria and urge the Assad regime to allow humanitarian access. The Saudi delegation actually walked out of the meeting, complaining of “inactivity” and urging the international community to arm the Syrian opposition. The Obama administration has consistently rejected calls by the Syrian National Council and others to prepare for a military intervention in Syria and no real strategy exists internally to force Assad from power, another administration official said, explaining:

Our strategic calculus can’t be solely about what comes after Assad without taking a hard look at how to bring about Assad’s downfall as safely as possible. The reality is, at some point, there will be a recognition you can’t plan for a post-Assad scenario without planning how to shape the downfall itself. You can’t separate the two.

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