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The eternal theme.
Watch dullness and detractors Arrow and EM.
‘Arrow’ is Strelkov (strela); EM is El Murid. Ani_al is a female follower of the Murid blog whose rudeness others sometimes complain about. It has been suggested that there is some backstage relationship between El Murid and ani_al, though of what sort, can only be conjectured. It might be something like the rumoured relationship between Jesus and Mary Magdalene, but then, you never can tell. Especially if you don’t speak Russian – RB
if you’re as irritated as i am by the pests holed up inside donetsk airport, who it is said are polish nazis, this will cheer you up
It starts with a long period of muttering which I obviously can’t make sense of. Then suddenly two Grad launchers open up in their usual spectacular and deafening way, aimed at Donetsk Airport. When they have finished, as their exhausts fade into the midnight sky, someone yells “Death to Fascists!” Even I can understand that – RB
it turns out that the crisis has to be resolved in russia itself, before anything intelligible can happen in novorossia
Financiers made the introduction of control over the movement of capital in Russia
Catherine Blizzard, RBC.ru, Sep 16 2014
The Bank of Russia may introduce control over the movement of capital if the ruble will greatly fall, writes in his review chief economist at FG BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov. In the next few days the Central Bank will have to start foreign exchange intervention to stop the fall of the ruble and if possible to raise its price. But if that doesn’t help, says the economist, the authorities will have to introduce control over the movement of capital. Persistent geopolitical tensions and a new round of sanctions have led to a serious weakening of the rouble. The rate to the Usaian dollar on the Moscow exchange is 38.7 rubles and to the Euro, 50.1 rubles; the two-currency basket on Tuesday, September 16, is 43.03 rubles, only 1.37 rubles from the upper limit set by the Central Bank of 44.40 rubles. What we are witnessing is the charge of the Central Bank for the declared purpose of the transition to a free-floating exchange rate and an unwillingness to intervene to raise the rate last Friday, that is to make a pre-emptive step to support the ruble, writes Tikhomirov. The short-term strategy of the Bank of Russia is based on expectations that support for the ruble will come from a sale of foreign currency by exporters, which will begin next week with the beginning of the quarterly tax season. But the problem is that the Central Bank will have to start intervention earlier, Tikhomirov is sure. The medium-term strategy of the Central Bank, he said, is based on the assumption that the current crisis in relations between Russia and the West (and accompanying this, the decline in supply of dollars) will be relatively short and the situation returned to normal within 1-2 months.
Tikhomirov indicates that in the short run on the ruble will be affected by many factors: the actions of the Central Bank, possible counter-sanctions from Russia, inflation, sales by exporters, and international oil prices, Usaian Fed policy, the negotiations concerning EU-Russia gas, and even the Scottish referendum. Each of these factors can affect the ruble independently or combination with others, indicates Tikhomirov. While the Central Bank is limited in its action to prevent panic in the currency market. The economist lists four tools that are available to the Bank of Russia: sales of currency reserves, rise in interest rates, increase in reserve requirements for open currency positions and finally the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. The first two measures will not help, according to the economist, since for the closed global markets before the end of the year must pay $77.6b. Sale of foreign currency is unlikely to calm the market, unless the amount of intervention is huge, writes the economist. A rate increase also will not be able to compensate for geopolitical risks. The increase in reserve requirements for open currency positions, according to Tikhomirov, also will not be effective: the banks still will not agree to sell their existing currency. But the fourth measure can be quite effective. Tikhomirov writes that it was used in the post-crisis period of 1998. He writes:
This step will be a serious deviation from the liberal foreign exchange regime which Russia imposed in 2005, but it can be justified in the current emergency situation. The Central Bank has the right to introduce such a measure, along with the requirement to open a special foreign exchange reserve deposits for cross-border operations. In other words, I think that FX interventions or interest rate increase will not be enough, but most likely, these tools will be used by the Bank of Russia as the first step. If the situation remains tense and the pressure on the ruble stays high, it is likely that they will be followed by the introduction of control over the movement of capital (reserve requirements and compulsory sale).
Two financiers told RBC that the subject of the introduction of control over the movement of capital was discussed at a meeting of Sberbank investor in the beginning of last week. A source in the financial-economic bloc said that the government of this subject is not discussed. The introduction of control over the movement of capital is possible, but only with a significant deterioration of the situation and a significant increase in capital outflows, says chief economist for Russia and CIS at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Vladimir Osakovsky. Chief economist for Russia at CIS Renaissance Capital, Oleg Kuzmin, said:
Now the probability of introduction of control over the movement of capital is low, I agree. But it will increase if Russia will be the sanctions are the same as in Iran. If sanctions will be applied not only to the export of hydrocarbons and borrowing companies, but also on the current system. If you will be banned calculations with the outside world, then it makes sense the introduction of restrictions. Earlier in the EU was discussed off Russia from the system of exchange of financial information of SWIFT. However, in the fourth package of sanctions such restriction is not imposed. Another critical scenario can be based on the mandatory early repayment of external debt. This may result in the reduction of Russia’s sovereign rating, or simply the distribution of sanctions for securities that are in circulation. Payments of external debt then you can be at the expense of sovereign wealth funds or reserves of the Central Bank.
now let us watch pres putin enunciate the fateful word, “novorossiya” (right at the end, and he practically chokes on it)
Dawn Of The Slavs: What does Strelkov’s speech mean? And the fact that Putin has made a choice
Alexander Dugin, Sep 15 2014 21:49
Many smart people know that Putin is not a king and not a dictator. In the sense that he does not solve all questions on the principle of “want” and a blow of his fist on the table. Behind him is an elite. Two camps (as is). On the one hand the hawks of the type of Rogozin, on the other “Patriotic” liberals. One, the party of war, the Imperials, advocating confrontation with the West and putting on sanctions, the second, the Pro-Western forces in favour of compromise to the detriment of national interests (although they see that as being in the national interest): the so-called сливщики (Slivshiki: literally, producers of Slivka, Сливка, or Sliva, Слива, which is our old friend ‘plum’ again, whose secondary meaning is ‘drain or discharge’, meaning surrender – RB). For them the friendship with the West is very important, not least because all their money is there. Some call them pragmatic. Dugin calls them “the sixth column”. In fact, the Usaian sanctions are aimed at this group, and are intended to provoke the displeasure of the бояр (boyars: princes, rich men – RB), to force them to influence the policies of Putin. And Putin himself has always balanced between the two camps. Not giving anyone a preference. Whether because he is a Гэбэшник (Gebeshnik, KGB man – RB), or whether because Libra horoscope… Anyway, the paradoxical situation in Novorossia is associated with the struggle of these Kremlin groups. Some want to surrender Novorossia, to negotiate with the West, to yield, while retaining for Russia the likeness of a person, with балачки (balachki, ‘chat’, a Ukrainian word, not a Russian one – RB) about a single Pro-Russian Ukraine, others want to wash their boots in the Dnieper (or in the Dniester). The first group tried to bury Strelkov through the Kurginyan cult, with all sorts of behind-the-scenes negotiations, and eventually they bungled out the muddy Minsk “peace treaty” with all its “special status.” The second group want to break this script to hell, and still go on to wash their boots.
This is a historic moment, in which Putin must make a choice. The old style of Joseph Vissarionovich (Stalin) will not work any more: “Hello, Comrade Beria? Comrade Abakumov said that X is the enemy of the people and you need to shoot him. OK, goodnight. Hello, Comrade Abakumov? Comrade Beria said that X is the enemy of the people and you need to shoot him. OK, goodnight. Well, goodnight all, now I’m going to sleep.” Upon Putin’s choice depends the future of Russia, and possibly the continent. The choice: either to give way under the pressure of sanctions = to plead loser = crash personal authority, to bury the concept of the Russian World, to embarrass Russia and to sow more discord in society; or to show his teeth and to show the West that Russia which they had seen in their submissive wet dreams all these decades. We know Putin. We know that he is a fighter. All know. We know that he is a pragmatic though rather emotional man. We had no doubt what position this person would adopt, when the pressure starts to compel obedience. And those Western politicians who didn’t understand it, it’s time to give them Darwin awards. Because Putin made a choice. I think that Putin chose war. Well OK, let’s put it mildly: the uncompromising hard-line position, dictated by the interests of the Russian people. The video with a candle in memory of the fallen defenders of Novorossia is not accidental. It is a message. In this video, the President of the Russian Federation said the word Novorossia. And he looked right at the camera. This is important. When Putin gives an interview, he looks at the reporter, not the camera. He looked us all in the eye. And his voice quivered with excitement. You can hear it. His voice trembled in a very human way, as everyone’s does in moments of deep sorrow and pain. I doubt that he had rehearsed that.
And then comes the speech of Strelkov. Very bold. In which he formulates everything very clearly: who the enemy is, what the Russians’ goals are, and with whom we fight. The point is this: Russia should be cleansed from the traitors and enemies of Putin. And, in fact, that is why he is here and not in Novorossia. That is, this is even more important than the war in the Donbass. Well, he didn’t say so, but that was the red thread. And Igor promised to formulate a plan, fast. I think, this statement by Strelkov, this statement is not only by Strelkov. VVP (Putin) chose his camp, and therefore, the representatives of the other camp should be cleaned out. Just as the aforementioned Joseph Vissarionovich would have done. Well, that is, not literally of course… Other methods. Cultured and civilized. And not by the hands of Strelkov, certainly. But they will resist. And they have the money, resources. This is the first thing. Second: sanctions will be really hard. If the bear before was poked with a stick, now they will poke it with a spear. The retaliatory sanctions will also be hard. And hard for the Russians. To jam and Camembert, now they will add cars and clothes. A wider range of citizens will be affected. And sanctions against the energy and banking sectors can undermine the economy, with consequences for all the citizens of Russia. In society can begin to grow scepticism, gradually turning into protest. Naturally, those who would carefully fan these protests will need to be cleaned out. Here we need Strelkov.
Strelkov is an icon. Strelkov is a banner. Strelkov is the centre around whom the patriots will meet. And the main patriot of Russia is the Czar. So said Strelkov himself. Above him hung a photo of Putin. Strelkov supports Putin. Strelkov is a beacon in the darkness that will soon begin in Russia. Igor will create the force (in the form of public organizations, political parties, I don’t know…) which will oppose the rebellion. The liberal “patriots” (the sixth column in Dugino) tried to discredit his name, realizing the scale of his popularity. They wanted to trample the image of “iron Strelkov” in the mud in the eyes of Patriotic Russians, in order to cause frustration and confusion in their hearts. And bitterness. And after surrendering Novorossia with their own hands they will attempt to channel the wrath of patriots against the chief traitor to Russians and the Russian World – Putin. And then in the revolutionary frenzy will merge ‘white ribbons’ and nationalists, liberals, left and right. The plan to dismantle Novorossia is a plan for dismantling Putin.
His serene Highness is not stupid, he understands this; but he hesitated at the price that will have to be paid, finally choosing the side of good. I think so. And the price – perhaps a global war. He had long weighed (Libra horoscope, ..), and came to a final decision. I think so. I think he started to weigh this up a long time ago. Why the large-scale military exercises throughout Russia? Why hundreds of billions of dollars to the military-industrial complex? Why intensive rearmament of the whole army, the construction of submarines, helicopters, and other military technology, форма от Юдашкина (form from Yudashkin, no idea – RB) and landing in the Arctic? No, guys, prepare the sledge in summer… (probably a proverb for foresight – RB). Strelkov made clear – he said in so many words – that to start a fight with the government, to join the protest of the liberal Bolotnaya camp, is a rotten business. You may be the hole in the doughnut, but not Strelkov (? – RB). The Russian World, this is not an abstraction. The Russian World begins to materialize. Russia is entering a new era. This process is very dangerous. The country comes to a voyage, and what we are witnessing now is cutting the ropes. In this dangerous journey there will be storms, and people will be washed overboard, and sea-monsters of all sorts (transoceanic) will be lashing their tentacles to break the mast and pull the ship to the bottom. And perhaps even pirates will try to board, or the ship will be raked with devastating fire from naval guns. All can be. The main thing is to choose the crew correctly. And it seems to me that the crew has been chosen. Now it is time to cut the ropes.
All of which is very good and beautiful, but others say that Putin’s Cunning Plan looks rather more like this:
oh, god, i’m so excited! the USAF will boldly go and spill its seed of death all over the middle east yet again, in another orgy of military masturbation
Secretary: USAF Will Lead Usaian War on ISIS
Military.com, Sep 15 2014
As the war against ISIS escalates, the USAF secretary said that airpower will make of the bulk (sic – RB) of the Usaian military’s role in the conflict. USAF Sec Deborah James told an audience Monday at the USAF Association’s 2015 (Hear that, it’s 2015 already! Feel the future now! – RB) Air and Space Conference:
Make no mistake about it, airpower will provide bold leadership in this coming fight and will secure the battlefield as we eradicate overtime (sic – RB) this cancerous terrorist network. The USAF will play a key role in Pres Obama’s four-part strategy of defeating ISIS. Systematic airstrikes will help hold back ISIS forces and create space on the ground for Iraqi and Kurdish forces to go on the offense. The USAF will also provide extensive intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capability to build situational awareness on the ground. Airman have already used unmanned drones and precision munitions in pinpoint airstrikes on ISIS targets surrounding the Mosul damn (sic! – RB) which allowed Iraqi and Kurdish forces to retake this vital asset. Airmen and ISR will be equally important in the operation to cut ISIS’ network grows (sic – RB). The assault on ISIS will rely on the USAF’s intelligence experts to counter ISIS strikes. USAF lift capabilities will also be needed in any humanitarian efforts on the ground in the region. USAF C-130s and C-17s have already airdropped thousands of gallons of water and tons of food to help evacuate as many as 20,000 refugees stranded on Mount Sinjar in northern Iraq. So for all of the talk that we go through in terms of boots on the ground and how many and what will they do, I for one thank God every day that we have so many USAF airmen boots in the air (“Boots in the air”! Oh, yeah! Let’s fuck, right now! – RB). The USAF will continue to face tough fiscal challenges as leaders wrestle with how to deal with looming sequestration cuts in 2016, but the service will provide bold leadership against future enemies like ISIS. It was Teddy Roosevelt decades ago that said: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Well, I think it’s time for a more modern-day USAF corollary to that statement, because we speak softly and carry JDAMs and Hellfire Missiles.
Iran supreme leader spurns Usaian overture to fight ISIS
Jason Szep, Mehrdad Balali, Reuters, Sep 15 2014
PARIS/DUBAI – Iran’s supreme leader said on Monday he had personally rejected an offer from Usaia for talks to fight ISIS, an apparent blow to Washington’s efforts to build a military coalition to fight ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. World powers meeting in Paris on Monday gave public backing to military action to fight ISIS in Iraq. France sent jets on a reconnaissance mission to Iraq, a step toward becoming the first ally to join the Usaia-led air campaign there. But Iran, the principal ally of ISIS’ main foes in both Iraq and Syria, was not invited to the Paris meeting. The countries that did attend, while supporting action in Iraq, made no mention at all of Syria, where Usaian
diplomats intelligence officers face a far tougher task building an alliance for action. Washington has been trying to build a coalition to fight ISIS since last week (a long time in politics, remember – RB), when Obama pledged to destroy ISIS on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border. That means plunging into two civil wars in which nearly every country in the Middle East already has a stake. And it also puts Washington on the same side as Tehran, its bitter enemy since the Islamic revolution of 1979. In a rare direct intervention into diplomacy, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Washington had reached out through the Iranian embassy in Baghdad, requesting a meeting to discuss cooperation against ISIS. Khamenei said that some Iranian officials had welcomed the contacts, but he had personally vetoed them. The Iranian leader said in quotes carried on state news agency IRNA:
I saw no point in cooperating with a country whose hands are dirty and intentions murky.
He accused Washington of “lying” by saying it had excluded Iran from its coalition, saying it was Iran that had refused to participate. Jackass Kerry said Washington was “not cooperating with Iran,” but declined to be drawn on whether it had reached out through the embassy in Baghdad for talks, saying:
I am not going to get into a back and forth. I don’t think that’s constructive, frankly.
ISIS set off alarms across the Middle East since June when they swept across northern Iraq, seizing cities, slaughtering prisoners, proclaiming a caliphate to rule over all Muslims and ordering non-Sunnis to convert or die. ISIS, known for beheading their enemies or captives, raised the stakes for the West by
cutting pretending to cut off the heads of two Usaians and a Ukian in videos posted on the Internet which showed the prisoners bound in orange jumpsuits. French officials said they had hoped to invite Iran to Monday’s conference but Arab countries had blocked the move. A French diplomat said:
We wanted a consensus among countries over Iran’s attendance, but in the end it was more important to have certain Arab states than Iran.
Calling the decision regrettable, Iraq’s Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said Baghdad had wanted Iran to attend. Iran sponsors the governments of both Iraq and Syria and has been at the center of defenses against ISIS in both countries. Usaia reached out to Iran last year when secret talks led to a preliminary deal on nuclear issues. Iran has occasionally played down its conflicts with the West since Pres Rouhani, a relative moderate, was elected last year. Khamenei’s intervention, including his statement that some Iranian officials welcomed the Usaian overture, was a rare public acknowledgment of division but also a reminder that powerful interests in Iran oppose a wider thaw. At Monday’s international conference in Paris, the P5, Turkey, Euian and Arab states and representatives of the Euia, Arab League and UN all pledged to help Baghdad fight ISIS. A statement after the talks said:
All participants underscored the urgent need to remove Daesh from the regions in which it has established itself in Iraq. To that end, they committed to supporting the new Iraqi Government in its fight against Daesh, by any means necessary, including appropriate military assistance.
Several Western and Arab officials said no concrete commitments were made and that talks on the different roles of those in the coalition would take place bilaterally and over the next 10 days at the UNGA. Another French diplomat said:
This conference was like a mass. A big gathering where we listen to each other, but it’s not where miracles happen. It was a strong political message of support for Iraq and now we prepare to fight.
Foreign Minister Fabius said French aircraft would begin reconnaissance flights over Iraq. A French official said two Rafale fighters and a refueling aircraft had set off. Fabius said at the end of the talks:
The throat-slitters of Daesh, that’s what I’m calling them, tell the whole world: “Either you’re with us or we kill you.” When one is faced with such a group there is no other attitude than to defend yourself.
Iraqi Pres Massoum told Monday’s conference he hoped the Paris meeting would bring a quick response. He told delegates:
ISIS’ doctrine is either you support us or kill us. It has committed massacres and genocidal crimes and ethnic cleansing.
Monday’s conference was an important vote of confidence for the new Iraqi government formed last week, led by a member of Iraq’s Shi’ite majority, PM Abadi, and also including minority Sunnis and Kurds in important jobs. Iraq’s allies hope Abadi will prove a more consensual leader than his predecessor Maliki, whose policies alienated many Sunnis, and that the new government will win back support from Sunnis who had backed ISIS’ revolt. (Actually, I don’t think so. The style of Iraqi Shi’ite puppet govts is calculated by Washington, or more likely by the CIA, on the usual principle of divide and rule. In other words, ungovernability is the desired goal – RB). The broad international goodwill toward Abadi shown at Monday’s conference means Washington will probably face little diplomatic push-back over plans for air strikes in Iraq. Syria, however, is a much trickier case. In a three-year civil war, ISIS has emerged as one of the most powerful Sunni groups battling against the government of Assad. Washington and its allies remain hostile to Assad, which means any bombing is likely to take place without permission of the Damascus government. Russia, which backs Assad, says bombing would be illegal without a UNSCR (as if Washington gave a fuck about UNSCRs any more – RB). Foreign Minister Lavrov told reporters in Paris that Moscow was already providing military assistance to both Iraq and Syria, suggesting Western countries were guilty of a double standard by helping Assad’s foes. He said:
Terrorists can’t be good or bad. We must be consistent and not involve our personal political projects, not prioritize them over the general goal of fighting terrorism. (Really? Must “we”? And what will you do if “we” decide not to be “consistent” but to be arbitrary? As in fact “we” very obviously did several decades ago? Why don’t you wake up, Lavrov, or better still resign and take your whole pathetic government with you, from Putin on down? – RB).
Usaia resumed air strikes in Iraq in August for the first time since the 2011 withdrawal of Usaian troops. Obama’s plans, announced last week, involve stronger military action in Iraq and extending the campaign to Syria. Usaian officials said several Arab countries had offered to join air strikes against ISIS, but declined to name them. Ten Arab states committed last week to a military coalition without specifying what action they would take. Ukia, Usaia’s main ally when it invaded Iraq in 2003, has yet to confirm it will take part in air strikes, despite the (pretended) killing of British aid worker David Haines by ISIS this past week. France has said it is ready to take part in bombing missions in Iraq but is so far wary of action in Syria.