The conductor and the brake
El Murid, Dec 2 2015 00:28 MSK
Today’s government decision regarding approval of the list of sanctions of goods from Turkey, despite its insignificance and inability to seriously undermine our relationship, still continues the confrontation and the conflict between Russia and Turkey that generally speaking, every day is becoming more dangerous. The conflict right now are strongly influenced by two factors: the objective and the strangely personal. Putin and Erdogan are both to a certain extent prone to personal complexes, which is reflected in many solutions, and it now plays a very important role, as much for one head as for the other. However, to begin with the objective factor, it is quite obvious: the position of Turkey who brought down our plane certainly looks much weaker than the Russian. Who and whatever the militants, the Turkomans, belonged to, it is unsystematic and subject the player, and therefore any system of the participant of war on the orders legitimate them, and thus Turkey, shot from ambush, the Russian aircraft acted outside the scope of any rules and concepts. Putin’s aggressive rhetoric in this situation is absolutely justified and peaceful Turkish for its part is absolutely clear: the Turks understand without us that they exceeded their authority. In this sense, both NATO’s position and Pindostan’s position after the frenzy of the first couple of days, became perfectly consistent and logical: Turkey is clearly not assaulted and therefore its problems with Russia do not have any connection to NATO and they must sort it out themselves.
Knowing all this, Putin is trying to squeeze the maximum from the situation. Russia, being the victim of unprovoked attacks, is entitled to significant expansion of its claims in Syria that now and becomes. It is clear that the original promise made by Putin to the limited nature of our presence in Syria in such a situation flies in the trash, but this is relationship problems between Putin and the Russian population, which right now the TV goes on the ears and inspire a patriotic roar. In international sense, Putin has the advantage right now, and the price of the aircraft in exchange for this advantage looks clearly not excessive. In particular, Putin can flaunt the dead pilot that all to white people looks quite blatant: it’s not good when bearded savages shoot civilizers bearing the light of freedom. In the West, understandably, they’re not particularly sorry for Russian pilot, but it sets a nasty precedent: what if tomorrow, the same bearded beasts will shoot the Pindosi or French pilots? In this sense, Putin’s position looks well-founded. In general, right at the moment, Russia has a right and enjoys it. And personal qualities of the two leaders here too play an important role: Erdogan fighter, and for him personally to apologize is simply unthinkable, but he makes the most of what could be interpreted as an apology. On the other hand, it is the personal factor can break the favourable position which Russia is in today. You can pinch in accusations and conflict, bringing Erdogan and his circle to the red line. For her he would have to answer it seriously. Will it be possible not to cross that line is unknown, Putin is also a master bit to eat.
If hell go and get run over, I immediately toss, which will not succeed to control the degree of conflict. The position of Turkey, if you look at it in the overall context, is very advantageous if the conflict becomes a reality. Control of the Straits is an important trump card, and Turkey has a very wide field for interpretation of their rights in relation to their locks. Suffice it to declare any aggression against her by Russia would be enough to activate the mechanism whereby Turkey initially closes the Straits, and then review by the UNSC (as the successor of the League of Nations, during which was adopted the legal regime of the Straits). Justified or not, once the Turks close the passage through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, then to consider can be long, especially if it will volatility of stakeholders. Russia is seriously considering such a possibility, in any case, publications on this topic increased dramatically in number, plus appear cautious comments from officials. In any case, this means that the limits and red features in Russia are understood, that pleases. In addition, the deterioration of relations with Turkey right now would derail the already falling rapidly handling of the Syrian war, as the stop-cock. Here’s the train in this case will not stop, and will start to gain speed, and how to stop him is unknown.
So I hope meeting of Putin and Erdogan yesterday in Paris was certainly present. If you do not take unicellular patriots, happily discussing her absence and anticipation “so we now let’s drink!”, some good in this little. Virtual war with ISIS and even real war, with real pro-Western terrorists, going on the patterns of colonial expeditions is one thing, but a real collision with a regular opponent in a full-scale war is an event of an entirely different order. Will not find anyone. Therefore, we can say that we and the Turks are already at the limit. All that could squeeze out, squeezed out. Well, maybe a few drops left, but nothing more. And if personal ambitions of the leaders will not let them be aware of this limit, the result will be bad, for all. For Russia a full-fledged war, even in the local variant, means inevitable defeat. Our economy is in ruins, and war of this format is primarily economic competition. It will certainly be a tombstone for the current regime, which will not succeed in its current form to survive a defeat. I’m ready to welcome his downfall, but not at this price. We have been through. The collapse of the regime in a relatively peaceful time, as happened with the USSR is not the same as a result of military defeat. So “the conductor, hit the brakes” is a very accurate slogan of the moment.