DEBKA merrily admits that hama ‘protestors’ have ‘anti-tank weapons’

Turkey revives military threat as Syrian tanks storm Deir al-Zour
DEBKAfile, Aug 7 2011

After capturing the northern town of Hama in a bloody military assault, on Sunday Aug 7 Assad sent a whole division of 200 tanks and dozens of armored vehicles to blast their way into another rebellious city, Syria’s oil center of Deir el-Zour in the Euphrates Valley, a town of half a million inhabitants. At least 70 people were reported dead in one day. While Hama is a Muslim Brotherhood stronghold, Deir el-Zour is the urban center of some 2.1 million members of assorted nomadic Bedouin tribes. They too are Sunni Muslims though of different sects. The Baqqara tribal federation is the largest, numbering 1.2 million, followed by the Fadan Walad and the Fadan Kharsa of the Euphrates Valley and the al Shammar Karsah of Deir al Zour and its environs. Unlike the protesters of Hama, these tribesmen lack anti-tank weapons for battling Syrian armor and so their town may not hold out against the Syrian onslaught beyond two or three days. The tribesmen have meanwhile run for cover to the dense papyrus groves of the river bank and the narrow wadis of the Iraqi al Anbar province just across the border. From these hiding places, our military sources expect them refugees to organize protracted guerrilla warfare against the Assad regime and Syrian army. These are the very tribes which from 2003 to 2006 joined al Qaeda in bloody warfare on US forces in central Iraq, preventing Anbar and the central Iraqi towns of Falujja and Ramadi ever being completely subdued and constantly convulsed by suicide attacks. It was only when Bush 43 agreed to implement the Awakening Councils plan put forward by Gen Petraeus, which involved substantial monthly payments to the tribal chiefs for warfare against al Qaeda, that Al Anbar was pacified.

Aware of the menace posed by these tribes, Syrian security services last week, ahead of the Deir el-Zour offensive, captured the Baqqara tribal chief Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir as hostage against the tribes joining the uprising against the regime. Syrian military intelligence will find him a tough nut to crack, even for a heavy bribe. The upshot may well be that although the Syrian army finally subjugates Deir al-Zour and Abu Kemal on the Iraqi border, its forces will be cornered by Sunni tribes which control the road networks around the two eastern towns and prey to their raids. Assad’s offensive against the two towns also places at risk Syria’s small oil fields and pipeline system. Their daily product of $8m-$10m is his primary source of revenue for sustaining his war on the uprising and they will certainly become a prime strategic target for the resistance. Turkish PM Erdogan decided to send foreign minister Davutoglu to Damascus on Tuesday Aug 9, after declaring Saturday:

Our patience is running thin and we cannot remain a bystander to the violence but must do what is necessary. Davutoglu will deliver our message in a more determined way. A new process will take shape according to their response and actions. We do not see Syria as a foreign problem, Syria is our domestic problem because we have a 850 km border with this country, we have historical and cultural ties, we have kinship.

This was the last warning from Ankara, and therefore NATO, that Turkey was about to intervene militarily in Syria, after maintain army units on the Syrian border for weeks. On Friday Aug 5, Russia’s NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin accused NATO of planning a military campaign against Syria to help overthrow the Assad regime “with the long-range goal of preparing a beachhead for an attack on Iran.”

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