Ranges and maths of the “Buk” system
Paveway IV, Zerohedge.com, Jul 20 2014
If pro-Russian rebels used a captured Ukranian “Buk” (or a secret system smuggled in from Russia) and fired it from any of the rebel-controlled areas, then MH17 would have been hit, and the wreckage would have traveled far beyond the region it was found. A “Buk” M1-2 TELAR (Transport Erect Launch Acquisition Radar) unit by itself (without the big radar-only truck) can only begin to acquire an approaching target at a range of maybe 15 km or so. MH17 would be approaching the launcher at a lateral closing speed of 1 km every four seconds. That means, at best, the TELAR might begin to see MH17 approaching at 60 seconds out. Let’s say it took fifteen seconds to somehow decide it was something they wanted to shoot down and launched a missile. Fifteen more seconds after launch for the missile to travel to and hit the plane. At that time, the MH17 would have been only 7 km or 8 km in front of the launcher, but 10 km high and still traveling forward (until hit) at 1 km every four seconds. It would take well over three minutes for the heaviest pieces to hit the ground, and they would have done that several km beyond the launcher, much further toward the Russian border. For the wreckage to land where it did, an oncoming plane would have to have been hit by a missile while it was still about 22 km or so away. 20 seconds for missile flight time to be there means it would have to be launched while the plane was still 27 km away. It would still take a while to be acquired by the radar and identified as unfriendly, so you’re talking more like 30+ km.
30+ km is within the capability of a fully-deployed “Buk” battery with all the TEL and TELAR missile launchers communicating wtih a M1-1 Kupol (Tube Arm/Snow Drift) search and acquisition radar vehicle. Trouble is that the separatist militia didn’t capture an entire battery: they just got a couple of TELAR trucks. The TELAR units only have a much smaller Fire Dome radar to use (the bump under the missiles). That means, under the most ideal conditions, they would have engaged and hit a approaching target that was a few km, not 30 km away. The wreckage from a commercial airliner hit a few km in front of the TELAR would be found a dozen km further downrange. The destruction of MH17 happened at a point well beyond the range of any separatist-captured “Buk” TELAR units, when you consider the additional acquisition, launch and missile flight times (not simply the stated raw Buk ranges). A “Buk” TELAR vehicle, by itself, could have shot down MH17, but it would have to have been 10 km further into Ukrainian-held territory. There’s people that do a lot better job of explaining the dynamics of a “Buk” system and can give more precise numbers, but it makes sense at face value. You simply can’t shoot down an approaching jet aircraft that far out without the half-dozen or so vehicles working together as a minimum, complete SAM battery. You can’t even see the aircraft that far out without a dedicated Kupol search and acquisition radar.
Plus, the always expert Andrew at Saker has this to offer:
You won’t find missile fragments (especially not the missile tail section) at the crash site unless embedded in the plane, which is not how SAM systems work. They cut the plane apart with an outward blast of small projectiles/rods. A commercial airliner takes around 3 minutes to fall 10 km, so it will be at least 20-30 km down-range from impact assuming initial forward speed of 900 km/h. The MH17 strike occured around Yenakiyeve given its course and the crash site in Grabovka. Passenger planes don’t fall straight down out of the sky, and a small missile won’t alter the inertia of a 300 ton plane under power. The videos of the crash (what videos? – RB) show the fuel load going up in flames, so the entire mid-section of the plane stayed together, including wings, cockpit, and fuselage, only the tail being lost. The “how” of this incident is provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense on Jul 18 and “Buk” system technical specifications. “Buk”‘s range is 42 km for a full unit operated with tracking units. With a hit around Yenakiyeve, draw a circle there and query where operating “Buks” were on Jul 17.
Ukrainian Armed Forces “Buks” were located in range at Avdiivka north of Donetsk and near Soledar/Artemivsk on Jul 17, with additional units located out of range at Styla south of Donetsk and possibly in range at Zoryane east of Donetsk, if the plane was hit near Gorlivka and had a more gradual descent than I suppose above. The “Buk” in supposed NAF possession filmed running alone south down the road T-05-22 south of Snizhne was a single TELAR unit located at least 45 km from the strike point, i.e. out of firing range, and travelling further out of range while filmed. There is of course no proof that it was even filmed on Jul 17, or was ever put in operation by NAF. Russian MOD noted “Buk” units around Donetsk were detected by Russian SIGINT linked as a unit and active radar and targetting command control was run from Styla to coordinate their fire activity, with the likely culprit firing unit at Avdiivka. Avdiivka is also located such that if one wanted to truck out an offending “Buk” unit after incident, it would pass through Krasnoarmiisk on the M04, where the short video of the “Buk” missing a missile that Ukrainian SBU has been touting is said to have been filmed.
The Black Box data will be interesting as it will tell where the plane’s descent started and thus where it was hit. Once public the Snizhne fairy tale will probably quickly fall apart, and we will proably start hearing that the shot was made from the A-1402 base just south of Donetsk Airport where the NAF supposedly captured “Buk” systems, or else the range of the “Buk” system reported in the press will magically increase beyond 42 km. This is also the reason for the initial Russian hesitancy. It is possible a missile launch from A-1402 could be easily mistaken for a missile launch from Avdiivka, less than 5 miles away. Once the Russian military could confirm the truth from data, Putin, Lavrov, and others could confidently speak.