problems, problems

Let’s assume that an Antonov An-26 military transport was shot down on the same day and at about the same time as the Boeing, and the videos we have seen of a plane coming down with one of its engines on fire, and one or two people parachuting out of it, are of this. The two events must have happened in close succession, because many eyewitnesses confused them when interviewed, and since the rebels have chosen to cover up the Antonov shootdown (and we have no idea what happened to the parachutist(s), the confusion persists. Strelkov posted this on Strelkov_info, and you can still view a cached copy at the above link:

Translation:

Summary from Strelkov Igor Ivanovich
17.07.2014 17:50 (MSK) Report from militia.

“In the area of Torez, we have just shot down an An-26 airplane, it is scattered about somewhere by the “Progress” coal mine. We warned them – don’t fly in “our sky.” Here is a video confirmation of the latest “bird drop.” The bird fell beyond the pit refuse heap, it did not damage the residential sector. Civilians were not hurt. There is also information about a second downed airplane, apparently a Su.”

The two YouTube videos he embeds are this and this. Strelkov was evidently confirming a militia report, for which I have only a screenshot of an autotranslation (!):

He posted another brief notification saying “Snizhne” instead of “Torez” (they are roughly equidistant from the actual crash site, at Grabovo). There’s this cached copy of it (directly beneath topmost post):

This is still up, but without the first paragraph:

RIA Novosti reported the claim:

Translation:

Transport An-26 shot down in eastern Ukraine, said eyewitnesses
17.07.2014 18:13 (Updated: 17.07.2014 19:19)

According to them, the plane crashed somewhere in the area of the “Progress” mine, away from residential areas. “We saw it hit by a rocket, there was an explosion, and the plane fell to the ground, leaving black smoke. Some debris fell from the sky,” said one of the local residents.

DONETSK – Militiamen on Thursday near the city of Torez, in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, shot down another Ukrainian Air Force transport plane, eyewitnesses of the incident told RIA Novosti. “Around 16:00 local time, an An-26 flew over the city. We saw it hit by a rocket, there was an explosion, and the plane fell to the ground, leaving black smoke. Some debris fell from the sky,” said one of the local residents. As confirmation of his words, there was a video recording made. According to them, the plane crashed somewhere in the area of the “Progress” mine, away from residential areas. Torez is located near the town of Sneszhne and the Saur-Mogila hill, where the militias have several anti-aircraft installations. Yesterday in the area, they shot down two Su-25s. Yesterday it became known that in the vicinity of the Saur-Mogila hill in the south of Donetsk Region, a large group of Ukrainian troops is trying to break out of encirclement. It is known that the troops in the “boiler” were from the 79th and 24th separate airmobile brigades, the 72nd mechanized brigade and a battalion of NatGuards “Azov” and “Shakhtersk”. The militia began bombarding them from Saur-Mogila as well as Semenivka and Taranye, and then went on the attack on the nearby Marinovka and the neighbouring checkpoint to complete the encirclement of the south of the boiler of the enemy. On Monday, an An-26 was also hit by militias in the Lugansk region. In the plane were eight people. Four crew members were rescued and two others were detained by militias, the fate of two was unknown, and searches for them were continuing.

AFP also reported the claim:

Rebel site suggests insurgents shot down Malaysia plane by mistake
AFP, July 17, 2014, 6:49 pm

KIEV (AFP) – A social media site attributed to a top Ukrainian rebel commander said the insurgents had shot down an army transporter at the location where a Malaysia Airlines plane crashed Thursday near the Russian border. The comments by the top military commander of the self-proclaimed DPR suggest the separatists had shot down the Malaysia Airlines plane by mistake, believing it was a large Ukrainian army transport plane. The VK page attributed to Igor Strelkov, which is frequently quoted by Ukrainian media, said: “We just downed an An-26 near Torez. It is down near the Progress mine. We had warned them not to fly in ‘our sky’. And here is a video confirming that a ‘bird fell’.” The website then provides a link that is identical to that published by Ukrainian media in reports about the Malaysia Airlines jet. The video shows locals referring to the Progress coal mine mentioned by Strelkov.

Interfax reported another version of the claim, by Strelkov’s deputy:

Translation:

The militia report that two Ukrainian planes, An-26 and Su-25, were shot down near the border with Russia
Jul 17 2014, 21:48

DONETSK – Two Ukrainian Air Force aircraft were shot down in the east of the Donetsk region on Thursday evening, advisor to the defense minister of the DPR Igor Druz told Interfax. I Druz said:

The Antonov An-26 transport aircraft was shot down above the city. It fell near the “Progress” coal mine, near a waste pile. Residential buildings were not damaged. A group of militia scouts are working at the crash site. A Sukhoi Su-25 attack aircraft was shot down near the Russian border later. It was hit from a portable antiaircraft missile system. Efforts are under way to locate the crash site.

Notice that he doesn’t say what shot down the Antonov. The An-26 has a service ceiling of 7,500 m, well above MANPAD range, so the implication is that another “Buk” was used, as on Jul 14. We had this on Voice of Sevastopol, Jul 14:

21-48, Today the militia for the destruction of the plane An-26 of the enemy at height more than 6,000 metres was used ADMS “KM” (better known as “Buk”). A few weeks ago it was reported about the capture by the militia of these systems. Now they are refurbished, complete with crews and put into operation.

– Source in English autotrans

21-48, Сегодня ополчением для уничтожения самолета АН-26 противника на высоте более 6 000 метров было прменено ЗРК “9К37М1″ (более известное, как “Бук”). Несколько недель назад сообщалось о захвате ополчением этих систем. Сейчас они отремонтированы, укомплектованы экипажами и введены в строй.

– Source in original Russian

If another An-26 was shot down on Jul 17, where is the wreckage of this plane? Where is or are the parachutist(s)? Why is DPR/LPR keeping quiet about all these? Did it take the wrong line at the outset, deciding after the news came of the Boeing, to deny it shot down anything at all, to endeavour to remove all the telltale posts, and now it’s trapped by its own denials? What are the chances that the rebel “Buk” battery was aiming at an Antonov at 7,000 metres or so, ie beyond MANPAD range, and then radar-guided their “Buk” right up to 10,000 – which is way beyond the altitude an Antonov could get to – and hit the Boeing? They couldn’t be that stupid, could they? No, you may say, forget it – we actually have the video of the Antonov coming down, with one of its engines on fire. The same video that shows the one (or two) parachutes. So there really was an Antonov. Which means that whatever the rebels used that day, even if it was a “Buk”, it really did hit an Antonov, and thus did not accidentally hit a Boeing. Unless the videos of the Jul 17 Antonov shootdown, with the smoke, the parachute(s), etc, were really filmed Jul 14. This is one of two I was thinking of, but it was in fact posted on Jul 14, and never pretended to be otherwise:

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This is the other one, and it was posted Jul 17, but it may have been filmed Jul 14 (the only good bit is at about 1:30):

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The second of these was posted on Jul 17, as being a video of the Boeing coming down, and everybody duly debunked it as obviously being not of a Boeing but of an Antonov. So the question is, was it really filmed on Jul 14, not on Jul 17? And if so, did the DPR/LPR really shoot down an Antonov on Jul 17? Or did they shoot down the Boeing, by mistake? It’s a valid and compelling question, of you are open-minded enough to think about it. In any case, there are two less crewmen from one of these planes, to worry about: