return to the land of broken promises

Our story begins way up north in the frozen wastes of Russia’s Karelia, at the Monastery of Valaam:

Gubarev and Strelkov

“Specially for those who said the first lot of photos were photoshopped” – Col Cassad. El Murid goes further: “Same room, just the opposite corner. I’d like to hear from Photoshop experts: Where this time will they find the heads glued to the bodies? Where will they spot the bulletproof jackets and blood-soaked bandages tacked inside the shirt? By the way, six of Strelkov’s not-shot-off fingers are clearly visible. The only thing we need is to count fingers on his other hand. So, nothing seems to be forgotten. Oh, and this time both of them cast no shadows! Perhaps it’s contagious. The hint: they still have reflections in the mirror.”

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Some say Gubarev is just a showman, but look at the two of them: does either one look the way you would expect if Novorossia had just been completely washed up by a false treaty and handed over, bound and gagged, to the Nazis? I don’t think so. Now, let us proceed together into the jungle of facts, if we can – RB

~~~~~~~~~

Non-peaceful truce
Colonel Cassad, Sep 6 2014 9:30

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Despite the truce having been declared, the fighting in the Donbass continued after 18:00 hrs. Part of the army units of Novorossia and a large part of the AFU has observed the ceasefire. Otherwise, the night marked by numerous skirmishes, as well as the shelling of populated areas, primarily Gorlovka and Makeevka. It is worth mentioning that both sides have rather conventional control of the armed forces, but the junta possesses the punitive battalions, sponsored by the oligarchs and often acting by themselves, and Novorossia, the so-called “wild militia”, not under the central command and belligerents by themselves. There is therefore nothing surprising in the fact that Minsk is agreed, and the war partially continued. The junta now don’t hide the fact that it needs a break in the fighting in order to concentrate efforts for the resumption of hostilities. Those “deals” that Kiev offers on the theme of “stay with new powers in the United Ukraine” are unlikely to meet with broad understanding of Novorossia, as anyone who accepts them will definitely be regarded as a traitor. People in the Donbass did not give their lives for “United Ukraine”, but because they judged that it was time for its destruction. Actually, I think by Sunday it will be clear whether the ceasefire will hold, or the logic of the civil war will return all to the situation of resolving issues by force of arms.

Of course, political reorientation around the idea the ‘Greater Transnistria” causes internal processes in the DND. Yesterday’s loud hype around the “attempted coup” (See below – RB) and subsequent attempts to disavow at the official level that anything had happened, demonstrate what was said back in July. In establishing a control loop of political processes, the system slowly gets rid of those who don’t fit into the new reality. In this case, it went too far and the event found its way into the press, but the fact is that this process has been going on for quite a long time, since mid-August. Its characteristic feature is the increase within the structures of the DND in the number of people who had pre-war ties with Akhmetov, and a smooth departure from the anti-oligarch line and from any talk about nationalization of the property of the oligarchs. It is clear that large-scale nationalization in DND will not happen, and that Akhmetov will retain a certain political and economic influence in the Donbass, through his people, after the war. In this regard, the period of Strelkov’s command in Donetsk only delayed, but did not prevent, the apparent collusion with Akhmetov. PS: the storming of Mariupol yesterday evening was interrupted, apparently for political reasons rather than out of military necessity, as the Novorossian troops were slowly but surely making progress, and were already engaged in fighting in the suburbs of the city. This tank was ready to come to Moscow, and graduated from his journey on the road from Novoazovsk to Mariupol:


~
It is, obviously a ukropian tank, because of the white stripes painted on every face or side of it, if you look for them. But for further amusement, if not enlightenment, here are the comments from the YouTube page:

SEVEROKnewsru, 9 hours ago – Mariupol 05/09/14 broken tank at a checkpoint on the road Novoazovsk. its engine running

flanker103, 1 hour ago – He set off for Moscow, but he never got out of Kherson)

Roman Kolbyshev, 5 hours ago – The first Ukrainian cosmonaut shouting “On Mars!” kill yourself on the corner of the toilet, I think.

Роман Г, 6 hours ago – Can not stop. Where Moscow ???

Alex Shev, 4 minutes ago – Ukropsky tank is so eager to get to Moscow, that treadeth engine even when its owners fled back to Kiev)

Denis DaKonechno, 1 hour ago – go for the parts

Vins V, 6 hours ago – To Moscow! Hmm …

votivsyo, 5 hours ago – Test anti obstacles showed their ruggedness. Tests should continue.

Unic1981, 3 hours ago – More buzzing broken tank ???

Kot Matroskin, 6 hours ago – Moscow gets remelted saucepan

~~~~~~~~~~

This seems to be the coup video, though I can’t swear to it – RB:

~~~~~~~~~~

The Coup
El Murid, Sep 6 2014 11:43

Yesterday via YouTube, the head a certain detachment of the Ministry of State Security of the DNP announced urbi et orbi that there had been an attempted coup d’etat in the Republic, particularly stressing the arrest by his people of certain followers of Vladimir Antiufeev (Deputy PM of DNP under Borodai – RB). The reasoning is strange, but it would obviously be premature to draw any serious conclusions from this. No coup in DND is not and cannot be. By definition. If only because it already happened a month ago. But since nobody was informed of the fact, nobody noticed. The first generation of revolutionaries always goes to the scrap yard, or under the knife. It is the law, and it is unlikely that it will fail to operate in Novorossia. Rare inclusions of the “old Bolsheviks” are usually needed only in order to symbolize the unbreakable link between generations. No more than that. After Strelkov was removed, a purge of his people took place: the head of the Motor Maintenance Department, a woman known as Vica-Vica, was thrown into the cellar; something unpleasant happened to the Chief Medical Officer; Strelkov’s chief bodyguard, a man known as “Lesnik” (woodsman – RB), was killed under mysterious circumstances; dozens of people loyal to Strelkov went for the ribbon. (This means, ran for the Russian border – RB). A no less significant part of the local militia, related to Strelkov but lacking the opportunity of going to Russia, went to the front, sometimes in the same units they had been in at Slavyansk. After the withdrawal of Denis Putilin, the same happened to his people. And in time, it happened to the people of Borodai and Gubarev. In this sense, there was no coup, and there can be no coup. It’s just natural, practically planned rotation. Except that during the war, there are more brutal methods used and everything happens more quickly.

If Akhmetov is turfing people out, it’s because his people need somewhere to sit, and proper positions under some upstarts. In this sense, the signing of the armistice and the mopping-up operations are directly interconnected processes, and the panic shown by Baranov (Minister of State Security of DPR Leonid Baranov – RB) absolutely not substantiated. No coup. You wanted the peace they offered. There are no peace terms possible other than Poroshenko’s. This should have been clear from the beginning. By the way, about the peace treaty: so far, the process is far from complete. In fact, they’ve only signed the ceasefire agreement. Everything else is debatable. The main problem, which is unregulated fire, it is possible to survive. Moreover, according to the TV reports there is, you might say, an unusually grave silence on the battlefields. The main problem is with the withdrawal of troops. Poroshenko simply is not prepared to withdraw the troops to the administrative borderline of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. (See below – RB) While this caught everyone by surprise, that’s the requirement of Poroshenko. It is clear that by agreeing to this, the negotiators run the risk of being crucified in Donetsk and Lugansk. Moscow is also not satisfied. But intact areas remain in Kiev, which could be destroyed by the returning army, so Poroshenko will not let them return. Poroshenko hastened to declare decentralization, but not on the whole territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, only in “some areas”, which clearly refers to his desire to hang back and not to leave. This is at the current stage, the most difficult question. How it will be resolved is still unclear, and therefore to talk about peace is especially premature. Although we had previously agreed not to utter the word ‘peace’, and understand by it only a truce. In this case, it is clear why Poroshenko needs these areas: so as not to have to conquer them a second time when he restarts the war. It is not far off.

Poroshenko: Ukrainian troops will not leave Donbass
LifeNews.ru, Sep 6 2014

The President is not going to give the order to withdraw troops from the positions occupied by them in the course of military operations. Poroshenko said in an interview with the BBC:

We cannot say that we will leave the territory. Because we are talking about our territories… In any case is not about the violation of the territorial integrity and inviolability of my country.

The host asked him a question under the terms of the peace plan of the Pres Putin. On Sep 5 in Minsk, DND and LNR reached an agreement with Kiev ceasefire from 19:00 (Moscow time) and signed the Protocol of 12 points on the settlement of the situation in the Donbass. The basis for this agreement, the parties took the peace plan of the seven points, proposed by Pres Putin on Sep 3. Following the talks, Poroshenko has said that Ukraine will take “extraordinary steps” to de-escalate the conflict, including the decentralization of power, provision of economic freedom South-Eastern regions of Ukraine, and also guarantees the free use of any language in these areas and the protection of cultural traditions.

Some final thoughts from El Murid:

Towards the First Oligarchic War
El Murid, Sep 5 2013 23:58

The “peace” deal proposed by Poroshenko and the deft political consultants from Moscow has a very interesting component, concerning the status of the militias of the DND and LNR. To dissolve the militias is impossible, so therefore they will have to be embedded into the existing design. In fact, the revolution in Kiev led to the establishment of oligarchic armies, as the only guarantee of compliance with any agreements between the oligarchs. Politicians already used DIY methods to deal with treachery, and this became the hallmark of ukropian politics. Another example of this is the swift exit of Yatseniuk, Avakov and Turchynov from the block headed by Poroshenko. Therefore, the only guarantee for agreements between oligarchs become their pocket armies, and the system of territorial and special battalions, once they have been cleansed of any ideological rabble, becomes quite suitable to use it as a guarantor of the health of their dispute resolution mechanisms. By the way, in Russia by the end of the 1990s, our oligarchs had got close to this mechanism, and to some extent, Putin has become an alternative to the development of oligarchic wars with the use of quite serious weapons. He became a referee, and as a result, private armies were not needed. In Ukraine, such an arbitrator is lacking and therefore, special forces and terror battalions become the replacement. In such conditions, it is proposed to grant the militia of Donbass equal rights with the territorial battalions, and submit them to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This last looks strange, but the status of terror battalion automatically raises the question: who will feed this great power, armed with everything except WMDs? Even after the withdrawal of the “volunteer vacationers” and the extrusion of ideologically-motivated volunteers, Russians and others, the Serbo-French militia is still a very formidable force.

At this stage, both in Lugansk and in Donetsk, the phase of the war of the warlords amongst themselves is not yet completed, and now this war takes on a different dimension. Obviously, this is the best time to receive Akhmetov, Yefremov, Taruta and the rest, so that the lower ranks can get under the wings of their commanders and their detachments. In the current situation no one will have time to blink before the army of Novorossia has turned into the same army of local oligarchs. Especially in conditions of total devastation, when the fighters need to feed their families, and the mines are closed and flooded, it is clear that membership in the militia will be almost the only source of livelihood. The militia will have to fight. And to give their loyalty to the commander and his owners. The extrusion of the ideologically-motivated is already happening. While there still remained some relative peace and quiet, Gubarev announced his resignation. That only means that he understands that the window of opportunity is very narrow. While he can, he still has the chance to get out on his own two feet, but soon enough dissenters will start to emerge feet first. By the spring, the problem will be solved, and then the fun begins: the Second Donbass War will still take place, the preconditions for it are not eliminated, the contradiction is not resolved. Only now it will start in a completely different format, the format of a war between oligarchs. That will create some very interesting alliances. I would not be surprised to see the militia of Lugansk in alliance with the Battalion “Aidar” going head to head with the “Ghost” Battalion in alliance with the Battalion “Dnepr”. Maybe the configuration of the alliances will be different, it doesn’t matter now. The Second Donbass War in this format will be the First Oligarchic War. Arbitrators of the relevant results in such a war will be AFU Supreme Commander Poroshenko and “vacationer” Putin. Perhaps this present “peace” agreement was signed with such a focus on the overall configuration in mind, and it should be quite understandable and acceptable to the owners of the Kremlin and banking. Anyway, I offer the hope for oligarchs like this to the miners in the mine, who are still somewhat naive. “Mama didn’t raise this flower for you!” (This last is the punchline to a rather common Russian joke, though I don’t quite see the application. It must be Murid indulging his sarcastic wit again – RB)

5 Comments

  1. Posted September 6, 2014 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    It could be that this photo was taken a week ago, same day as the one with El Murid.
    Next to Pavel Gubarev Igor looks almost as slim as El Murid ))

  2. Posted September 6, 2014 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    I think the logic to sign the ceasefire that guided the Novorossiya representatives at Minsk must have been that time, regardless of recent junta disasters on the battlefield, is and will continue to be the enemy of the junta. The junta is inherently unstable. We have known this from the beginning. It is cobbled together and stays together because of the assault. You cease the assault and the center will not hold. Kiev will begin to eat itself alive.

    Fall approaches. Gazprom’s bargaining position is looking good. Rada elections provide another source of instability.

    I find it hard to believe that these Minsk negotiations, shepherded as they were by Russia, were designed solely to subvert the self-defense forces.

  3. Posted September 6, 2014 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    It should have been obvious to anyone with a brain that Akhmetov was behind this rebellion all along. I have been saying this all along.

    All that ammunition, fuel, food, clothing, etc. used by the militia was not free, and the care taken to spare the assets of the Akhmetov empire from fighting was too obvious, as was the MOU between Metinvest and the DNR to protect Mariupol.

    I won’t pretend to understand the geopolitics behind all of this. The West would have glady given Russia to outright annexation Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhzia, southern Kherson, Kharkov, Sumy, and Poltava throughout the spring – basically a border on the Dnipr with certain trans-Dnipr areas near Kiev, Kremenchug, and Dnipropetrovsk left to Ukraine. This seems like a tremendous boon to have taken to me and was the premise of massing troops along the border in March and April. Numerous articles were written all but conceding this territory to Russia.

    However, the West very much wants not just the crazies of Lviv, but also Kiev, Dnipropetrovsk and Krivvy Rih, and especially the coast along Odessa and Mykolaiv and the Dnipr River trade. With this go Moldova and Transnistria. If they can get more, all the better.

    Therefore, the conflict was not over Donbass and Crimea, without which the rest of Ukraine is frankly stronger and more unitary, but over the middle lands from Odessa to Kiev. One must see then that Russia is not aiming for Donbass, which it essentially already has, but for either all of Urkraine, or at least all of central and eastern Ukraine. Donbass simply hosted the preliminary round of hostilities because Russia did not press the issue far enough.

    As conflicts are always over resources, we must note the Ukrainian midlands have the following – iron ore, hydropower, fresh water, black earth, educated people.

  4. Posted September 6, 2014 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    This “ceasefire” bs have so far turned into:
    – Naf releasing the move on Maripoul.
    – naf (south donbas-region) been almost cut of from Donetsk. (Ukr army almost captured all the road and cutying of naf in the south).
    – 500+ armored vehicles strengthening towards Debalseve. (Including numerous foreign vehicles).
    – Naf been driven completly out of Severodonetsk.
    – boilers released.
    – did naf release the ukr POWs? (Was schedule for naf releasing their POWs, and ukr releasing naf pows on sun/monday).

    Bezler and others have noe resumed the warfigthings.

    Wonder when the ceasefire will be officially over.

  5. Cu Chulainn
    Posted September 7, 2014 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    the theme of Orwell’s _Homage to Catalonia_ is the betrayal of the communist cause by its alleged champions in Moscow; plus ca change…

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