this is 4 days old, but in addition to the murid points, limonov makes a new point: will iran really let assad surrender?

Whether Putin to merge Syria and Assad?
Eduard Limonov, Oct 22 2015

Tuesday came to Moscow Pres Assad, who had a three-hour conversation with Putin. While many wonder why Putin was called to Moscow and what they talked about, I can give an answer. I have no doubt that Putin summoned him to Moscow to see if it quickly to get to merge or not. For example, will the Kremlin be able to get him to sign the Minsk agreement, but in Syria. I wrote earlier that Putin got Syria to drain Syria and Assad. To do this, Putin pretended to be a friend of Assad to gain his confidence. Then with benefit it to try to pass to the West. So I agree with the opinion of a respected blogger who wrote that Putin will have the role of Chernomyrdin, which forced Milosevich to capitulate. In favor of my version say negotiations Oct 23 with Russia, Pindostan, EU, UN, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Where they are in the warm company discuss Syria. Rather listen to a report Lavrov, as Russia would be drained of Assad and Syria. Notice, in the negotiations where discuss the fate of Syria, there are no representatives of Syria or Iran. Which plays a key role in the BW and in the SAR. But in trying to merge Putin, Assad and his country may encounter several major obstacles. Now let’s talk about them.

  1. The main obstacle to Putin’s plans to repeat the Minsk collusion in Syria is Assad himself. Which is not the same weak-willed puppet, as Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky, to execute any whims of the Kremlin. Assad is the leader of the real part of the Syrian population. Links to the future of many in the Arab Republic. What will the Kremlin if Assad refuses to sign a disadvantageous peace accords to him? Will try to clean it up? Then stay of the Russian military in Syria would be illegal. And the Kremlin’s plans plum ATS saves face, Putin will be destroyed. The greater the chance that potential murder of Assad, Syria will finally plunge into chaos. Then atamatov in Syria do not pay.
  2. Another obstacle to Putin’s plans to drain Syria, to beg for forgiveness from Pindostan, is surrounded by Assad, composed mainly of Alawis and Shi’is. And they have something to lose in case of defeat Syria. How Putin will be forced to perform the shameful agreement on Syria? With the help of the Russian special forces attempt to shoot the commanders of the Syrian army and politicians from the inner circle of the President? But then the Russian military will begin in response to fire of the Syrian military. Which aren’t the same terpilami, as the militia of Donbass. It is in the Donbas were such numbers to pull, firing the commanders of the militias and disarming entire units. In DLNR affected even the proximity to the Russian border, which is not in BV. How few Russian invaders are going to disarm the Syrian military, which will continue to batter the militants? Are not you afraid that in this case the Syrian military would resist the Russian invaders? At least, as the militia of Donbass, easy to disarm will not. So let Kremlev not expect that the Syrian military will be the same terpilami, as the militia of Donbass.
  3. The third and one of the main obstacles plum Syria is Iran. Who plays the fiddle. I remind, if somebody doesn’t know. Syria is now fully on Iran. This applies not only to the army. Now answer the question. Where in a country where already more than 4 years of civil war and foreign intervention, are money to pay salaries to Syrian teachers, doctors, the military, pensions to pensioners? Properly, thanks to the help of Iran. Therefore, if Assad is someone will be listened to, primarily Iran. And without their consent, the Syrian leader will not sign any piece of paper. And no attempts to bribe Iran in the form of cheap supplies of military equipment to not interfere with Putin to take Assad to the West in exchange for the lifting of sanctions with the cooperative “Lake” will work. And other levers of pressure on Iran, thank God areii no.
  4. The last obstacle in the way of draining, you can call Syrian terrorists, opposing the Syrian army. The fact that Putin’s plan was. A little pobombit terrorists and the Syrian army, forcing them to sit at the negotiating table with Assad. That is, as in the Donbass, when only the intervention of Russian troops forced Waltzman to go for the ceasefire and the Minsk agreement. Here Kremlev expected to do the same. But here’s the problem. The rate of onset of CAA is very low. Yes, every day release a number of villages and small towns. But it’s not enough to make the militants to sit down at the negotiating table with Assad. The more they can replenish their numbers and thus go on the offensive, what can be said about the Syrian army mobilization resource that is almost exhausted. I have nothing to lose to the Turks and the Saudis to send in ATS new batch of mercenaries. By the way, if you believe Western media, Turkey urgently has already sent in Idlib, several thousand mercenaries with heavy weapons and anti-tank guided missiles. And if the offensive continues at such a snail’s pace, in a month it will stop without achieving any goal declared in GSH Syria and Russia: cleaning up the Damascus suburbs and enclaves like Homs, the liberation of Aleppo and Idlib and the closure of the Turkish border. That means only one thing. The Kremlin will either have to increase its contingent in Syria, mostly mercenaries, the set of which is in Russia. Or the best option, get out of there. Not because the defeated enemy conditions dictate, the Kremlin will not be able. And to merge Syria, Putin have until the end of Obama’s presidency. This is the time period he has set in Washington. Otherwise, promise to punish him with sanctions.

These are not all of the obstacles to Putin in the way of draining Syria and Assad. Do not forget the Kurds and the Turkmen. Yes, and ISIS is not defeated because the Russian aircraft almost touching. Even China has that too, not interested in the plum-Kremlin Syria. Proceeding from all this, I absolutely do not understand on what grounds Kremlin strategists have decided that easily will repeat in Syria the Minsk Blagnac that they waged in the Donbass? I repeat once again. Syria is not Donbass. What will work in one place, doesn’t mean it will work in another. And soon Kremlev will see this first-hand.

To that we can add this, with escalating cynicism:

The scope of work is growing
Simplici_us, Oct 22 2015

299666_original

All thought immediately after draining of Donbass, the Russian Federation will be engaged in the discharge of Crimea, but damn, geopolitics, they are the same wizard steps. In between Peremoga in the Donbass and in the Crimea, they decided along the way Peremoga in Syria. Given that the process of “replay” will occur simultaneously in all three regions (behind-the-scenes negotiations on the return of the Crimea to Ukraine are already underway, according to Strelkov), I want really to remove the pile before such geniuses link-up play. By the way, it is quite clear why the “Western partners” so abruptly changed their attitude to the Russian leadership, as Putin once again became the darling of the Western media. No one, it is clear, is going to arrange a Maidan in Moscow and overthrow the “tyrant”, because there is so much work to do: Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, China finally… so much space for geopolitical link-up play, how many more can we help in the negotiation process?

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