The personal guard
El Murid, Apr 5 2016 18:42 MSK
The creation of the National guard on the basis of the internal forces in the form of “a new Federal organ of state power” gives the President a personal armed unit. In general, it is logical. If the oligarchs can afford the punitive detachments of type “Dnepr” and “Donbass”, then the President should not to waste his time on such trifles, he needs a special unit with the rank of Ministry. With armoured component, aviation, missile and artillery divisions. The national guard was given the functions of the fight against terrorism, organized crime, and the functions of riot police, SWAT and other police special units. The Ministry of internal Affairs in compensation given to the FSKN and FMS, but, of course, most important is the creation of a new superstructure force, focused on combating an internal enemy. In principle, these activities are quite form the outline of Putin’s fear before autumn events. Apparently, he’s absolutely seriously considering the scenario of escalation of the situation by the autumn, which creates a personal guard in addition to the existing FSO. Putin creatively reworked the Ukrainian experience, when the national guard was created after the collapse of statehood, and therefore intends to anticipate the same.
In general, the measure is reasonable, but the problem is as always that it’s all the same struggle with the consequences. The cause of the accident remains the same: the collapse of the economy, the dominance of the oligarchs, unlimited stealing at all levels, the complete incompetence of the managerial vertical, starting right from the second person in the state. How the Dzerzhinsky Division can help struggle with all this is unclear. Apparently, the fact that when the time comes to shoot people, the army there is little hope, Yes, it will take away all of the external conflict: the good two war, but fall just invite aggravation in Central Asia. Therefore, we need a structure that will not falter, which will not flinch from the chase, like her Ukrainian colleagues, but will take down the quarters of the cities if necessary, quickly and without much reflection. In the framework of the fight against terrorism, of course. Concentration in the hands of one agency of functions of dealing with organized crime, terrorism and crowd control (all at once) is causing very serious concerns. These are completely different problems, and (so are) the resulting tasks. (More) logical is specialization and the creation of different structures and agencies to counter such diverse threats, but the horror and fear for personal safety seems to have completely eliminated any reason (in the mind of the Supreme – RB). I have no doubt that propaganda will explode predictably with laudatory hymns, and hints that now Putin definitely wins over all the internal enemies and will make all beautifully. For six months, the new PCP (Putin’s Cunning Plan) will be enough for sure, then he will come up with something else.
Sly nut (1)
El Murid, Apr 6 2016 02:07 MSK
The news of the creation of the national guard looks very puzzling, and apparently, there are why. This is not police reform a la Medvedev, when under the change of the name they vetted all the undesirables, (otherwise) it was left as it was. This time, (they are) changing the balance of power structures, and even very seriously. The new structure cut off the powers of all, and in such a number that it cannot but cause a sharp discontent in the FSB and the Interior Ministry (MVD). In fact, FSO is suddenly in the role of the old wife, when her husband brought home a young woman, and appointed her beloved. Access to the husband is a resource, and now they have to share, and it is unclear in what proportion. Simply put: Putin provokes violent conflict among security forces, as the rebalancing of power resource in despotism always comes at the expense of the interests of the powerful nobles. That is the risk, and very high. Such a solution has both the causes and the consequences. Detailed knowledge of available dedicated, but the framework it is possible to evaluate both. Among the reasons are two, and each has quite a serious justification. The first reason is obvious. Putin’s personal security did not seem to him sufficient. He can not understand the meaning of the West an expanded campaign against the Russian elite. A piece of cake, eventually. In the wake of the neo-liberal crisis and the resulting global financial centres and forces, part of the Russian establishment gently but at the same time very clearly requires a change in the management model. Most clearly on this subject speaks German Gref, who calls openly to introduce in Russia the corporate mechanisms and control technologies. At the time, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who conceived a much softer option of reformatting the presidential Republic into a parliamentary only, got stuck with two five-year shock work. Gref, apparently, worried about their future, which means Putin simply has no resource to counter his group. The dissatisfaction with this part of the power elite wing of the managerial vertical is no longer a secret. It forces the neo-liberals are considered guilty of impending disaster. Their unparalleled greed yesterday regional operatives who had turned up previously unknown amounts of money. Crazy and smaller. Well, their intelligence and experience, of course, raises questions: how to manage the corporation man, the whole labour activity which is to wear for the owner of the portfolio? And when each of the Main First person, were caused billion, a school-teacher innocently reports that the ward has had difficulties with arithmetic, and fatal, the level of intelligence here, even testing difficult.
With the security forces, it seems that Putin is not all right, that the theft has long gone beyond all shores, it is equally clear, and although Putin has repeated and very firmly said there needs to be less stealing, in a variety of meetings, from merging in the system measures at least of ordering the robbery, suggests that the impact on this part of the elite he is also purely nominal. If the situation still, such a situation would be for Putin personally very comfortable: hard contradictions between cliques creates the need for arbitration, and the figure of the President standing above the fray and balances the situation. It used to be, and this system works for everyone. But now the crisis. Now comes the time to make a choice: who will you eat and in what order? To survive all will fail. And in this situation, doesn’t need a referee, but an ally from Putin all require tougher to decide. But he can’t, why is a separate question, now the important fact. In this situation, all the clans are beginning to show discontent. From revolution any elite at any time and in any place always holds only one and the same point: they all have something to lose. Roll is the roulette. If you win you will retain a little bite and losers (why – because a coup is always a collective endeavour of the pack mates, so to tear the defeated will also flock). But if you lose, then you lose everything. This simple consideration is more reliable than any secret police protects the Supreme Deity from snuff in a temple. From time to time.
However, if the situation is aggravated, and the Deity is idle, then sooner or later there comes a time when someone will decide, and usually, as a guarantee resorts to the support of influential external forces, thereby significantly increasing its resource base. If you remember the Russian revolutions, almost always behind them were foreign ambassadors. Even in this purely family matter as the murder of Rasputin, the conspirators still found it necessary to seek support from His Britannic Majesty. The current campaign of sanctions exactly is considered by all players as a disturbing factor aggravating the contradictions and encourage them to take decisive actions. First up, that and sneakers. Quite a clear message and an urge from the outside. No one hides nothing. Why? Here and the answer to the first question: in folding circumstances, Putin simply will not trust anyone, except for the his very closest, which, by definition, are less than the fingers on your hand. For this reason the dissatisfaction of the security forces the sudden imbalance and the need to share the resource with a new powerful structure, is the lesser evil compared to the real danger of a palace coup. The probability is still high, but nothing else the despot in this situation. It is in a democratic country without elections regarding allow victims to resolve such contradictions, the despots in power is life, in a biological sense. Why do you have your billions, if you voluntarily leave almost on the chopping block? While Putin has any illusions the West have left, now he will have presidency until his death. So as an alternative is also death. Well, or such a life which from death will be no different.
Apparently, Putin has deliberately intercepted by the FSB in combating terrorism, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, counter extremism and street riots. National guard in addition to the current internal troops will obey the division’s SWAT and riot police, the center for special-purpose rapid-reaction force, aviation, private security, in particular the Center of Special Purpose of Private Security of the Interior Ministry, Interior Ministry units, which are engaged in control over observance of legislation in the sphere of trafficking in weapons and in the field of private security activities, as well as the Federal State Unitary Enterprise (FSUE) “Protection”. In this configuration, the power super office becomes flush with the army in its capabilities. Except that he has no weapons of mass destruction and space groups… but who knows what’s there in the closed items of the instrument of full powers NG? The army is already at war, and that part that is not yet at war, associated operational necessity to cover dangerous areas. The first is Ukraine, where the party is mobilized 250-strong army of hostile us states (ardent greetings to the brilliant foreign policy of the Kremlin), is the Baltic states (from less than 100 miles to key points on the map: Ust-Luga and 100 km to St Petersburg), it is Central Asia that is not just boiling, but stubbornly preparing for the explosion control date this fall. Now Nagorno-Karabakh broke out, and the Northern Caucasus in the conditions of drying flowing Dani looks less and less obedient and submissive. Again, the second series of ardent love to now the internal politics when the controversy was filled with money, not allowing in principle. Such a zone of instability and the Soviet army was not enough, so what about the army of the Russian state you can forget. She’s all involved, and to allocate somewhere at least a company, means to expose the whole strategic direction. As a result, the national guard remains the best of the best in all areas of the country, than it would seem possible to translate the spirit and peace for the future. But every sly nut, as you know… it may well be that the sudden move of Putin will force his opponents (internal and external) to move to a much more rigid planning, it could be earlier.
Sly nut (2)
El Murid, Apr 6 2016 11:13 MSK
The second reason, which requires non-standard approaches of Putin and threatening measures is a crisis in relations with the regions. In the beginning of Yeltsin “Take the sovereignty, how many swallow” thoroughly shattered the country and created the conditions for its disintegration. However, measures to restore the Federal office transferred the problem from one extreme to another – now the focus was on “vertical control” under the banner of “Russia is big, you can manage it only with a firm hand.” In exchange for loyalty of the regional nobles was filled with money, and most importantly, they were given the right freely to plunder the subordinated territory. This situation led to the final establishment by the end of the 2000s throughout the country of a mafia state at all levels. This is contrast to the situation in the initial years of Putin’s rule. If you previously regional bosses in contempt and did not pay attention to Federal structures, defying devil-may-care attitude towards Moscow and its laws (even introduced rules under which Federal laws were effective only to the extent not contrary to the regional norm-building), now the Federal agencies have merged with local and sawing together for a couple of territory, united by a common vested interest. In the crisis of the local оябунов, Moscow has no tools of influence.
The threat of a regionalization of the country in crisis in case of a malfunction in the control centre is guaranteed. In this sense, a power tool in the form of personal guard, which could give Putin a guarantee that he will lag in time, in Moscow if something goes wrong. To keep the situation under control indefinitely his Praetorians can’t, but the regions will be forced to keep neutrality in case of attempt of creating any sort of trouble in Moscow for much longer. The first and second reasons it is strongly required to create uncontrollable power anyone the superstructure, of course, are the result of contradictions that the national guard can’t solve – no one, in fact, is not going to resolve anything. Putin’s task is to cement the existing status quo and relive the embarrassing moment. No reforms, industrialization, the creation of a new system of control of speech is not and can not be – Putin is already all created for 15 years, he is a slave and a hostage has created a mafia-like structure of feudal medieval element basis. In any other system he’s a nobody, and build something new can only be based on some kind of influential and resource wealthy stratum of the elite. This event was designed to “bend” all – highest and nomenclature, and regional alike. To ensure their loyalty. Therefore, the cries of propaganda about “now all of Our shows” you can safely ignore.
Well, now about the consequences. As long as the contradictions are not resolved, they will continue to accumulate. The looting of the country continues, the control is degraded, the economy is destroyed, the population goes wild. No national guard to keep the steam in the pan will not, it just makes the exhaust more distant in time, but is much more serious than it would be without the attempt of Putin to keep the situation that way. The West and its clients in the environment of the Russian ruling elite will continue the former scenario. They now have to factor in the national guard, but only just. In general, to neutralize its existence it is already clear how. Taking under all possible power functions, the national guard will be forced to somehow, but to deal with the problems for which these functions exist. The fight against terrorism. It is highly doubtful that the national guard, tucked under the function of fighting terrorism will be able to fight it better FSB, or any other specialized service. On the contrary, the dispersion of responsibilities in this fight (the FSB will continue to conduct operational-search activity, but in the case of large-scale events she will now have to go cap in national guard) greatly complicates the whole process. There will be “holes” that are inevitable in this kind of mismatched. What – now no one can say, but they definitely and very quickly found the terrorists themselves. And who controls them, is an open secret. The main task of national guard is to ensure safety of the First Person. This becomes now priority for all national security. In this case, the established system rather easy to disrupt, “заддосив” a new power structure more terrorist activity in the capital and in one or two important regions of the North Caucasus and the Volga region, for example. The finite resource of the national guard, which means she will have to concentrate on these areas, Baring the rest. This means that remains without covering the second reason why Putin was forced to create the national guard – regional barons. To split the country will not be through the apical shock, and more blood and difficult – through the regional cracks. In this case, it is possible that the fall events will still take place – but they are used as training and verification capabilities of the new guard of Putin. Then will work on the bugs and I’ll say it again. The creation of the national guard only delays the inevitable for a time. Without resolving contradictions created during the reign of Putin, but also contradictions accumulated since the Soviet period and in the times of Yeltsin’s experiments, the system will remain in unstable position. Backup will only delay its collapse.