Restructuring Islamist forces
El Murid, Apr 25 2016
Pindostan is concerned about “mixing” the opposition and terrorists around Aleppo in Syria, said State Dept spox J Kirby. (Source).
The concern of the State Dept (it’s hard to say whether in this case to take the word “concern” in quotation marks or not) is related to the fact that Syria has seen a massive transition under the banner of Jabhat al-Nusra, and the building of an alliance with it by units of the so-called “moderate opposition.” This process has all the hallmarks of exactly the same process about a year ago, when about 20% to 25% of all Islamist groups in Syria swore the Bayat to the Caliph al-Baghdadi and began to belong to ISIS, (which thus) not taking offensive action, suddenly spread its presence to a very decent (proportion of all the ) territories of Syria. Today, an approximately similar process occurs in relation to Jabhat al-Nusra. There is a very rapid restructuring of the terrorist forces and if it continues, the Islamist forces of Syria will be represented exclusively by AQ and ISIS, all other groups will become marginalised. To speak of secular and even полусветских “opposition” even a year ago was virtually meaningless: they are, of course, attended the theater of hostilities, but usually these were very small units, operating in very local areas. Today they are even more “dry out” and criminalized. It is a paradox, but the beginning of mass transition of Islamists under the banner of Jabhat al-Nusra is likely to put very formal truce declared under the negotiation process in Geneva. Of course, nobody really respected that, but the West, Turkey and of course the Toads have launched a wide range of funding and procurement groups, which were not included in the (ceasefire) regime. Terrorist war is a war for money and resources. Militants move to where you pay. For peace no one was not going to pay, so the process of mass transfer under Nusra has become quite an adequate response to the incident.
With Russia there is no question since last September and our leadership, and our military has demonstrated many times his complete misunderstanding and ignorance of the situation and the intricacies of the ongoing war. Military easier kill somebody, he must be ISIS, where the bombs were there and the main strategic headquarters. But politics carried the utter nonsense that betrayed a lack of understanding of where they came in. The explanation is quite obvious: the post-Soviet Russian, one of the strongest Oriental schools in the world, was in the corral in the 2000s, the professionals washed out and gone by age. The last blow was the elimination of the institution of the chief military adviser in Syria in 2012, after which it seems the Russian leadership has ceased to obtain any adequate information from the region. Solutions in this case are made on the level of a nerd, curiously poking around a stick in a hornet’s nest. The issue (lies) with Pindostan. They time their shots are not coffins and they did. Although it is considered that they understand what is happening, they (equally) do not have (any idea). An example is Iraq, where they were like a bull in a china shop, the result of which is obvious. Whether they understood the consequences of the armistice, (given that) funding for the militants is not included in it? Probably, yes. Then their concern looks factitious, but could not understand that it is no wonder. Заидеологизированная, Pindo foreign policy works with thieves and idiots. Once they faced an enemy who was critically thinking and motivated, their strategies failed. Another example is Iran vs ISIS: Of course, Pindostan pretend and give the impression that everything goes according to plan, but this is absolutely not true. With Russia, yes, everything is fine. Idiots, thieves and traitors are behaving in an absolutely predictable manner. Ukraine is even better. Samples there is generally nowhere to put. The result, though now under glass. But with the Islamists, and it is ideological, all wrong. Therefore, Pindo strategy in the collapse of the USSR did not work before Gorbachev even older gerontocracy Brezhnev period, although she looked not so good, but only with the ideology they had everything very well. Gorbachev’s era, when the surface of useful stuff, gradually moved to the Yeltsin-Putin, where all the new nomenklatura is competing for the right как можно мерзее.
(The impression) that Pindostan has done well is media-driven. No-one has any idea that Pindostan can “лохануться.” A superpower is impossible. However, it creates the impression that the current tactical situation in Syria, Pindostan just lost. Refers to the current processes around Nusra. Nusra had its small but stable piece of the Syrian war and felt quite confident in it. For the last two or three years she and other Islamist groups have passed a certain way of building relationships, and almost all of 2015 was found in this balance. Today it is rapidly destroyed. It would seem that Nusra can only enjoy what is happening: it very rapidly “swell” her sworn troops and militants. However, will it be able to cope with such quantitative growth will happen, and when a quality rebuild, is a difficult question. The problem is that if she can handle it (there is doubt about that below), then the Islamist opponents of Assad and the Kurds clearly divided into ISIS and Nusra, the rest almost does not remain. If you are not up, it will collapse all “неигиловской” part Islamists, and their place will be occupied by ISIS, who may suddenly get a second wind, and it is now extremely important. Doubt that al-Nusra will cope, lie in the subjective. Nusra have talented tactics operators, there are ideological leaders, but strategists and organizers, unlike ISIS, they have not got or have not kept. Nusra is very bad with commanding officers of brigade level and above, so it has a maximum battalion, and often ротными tactical groups. Staff structure of Nusra are also not so good. The higher the level of operations, the more complex coordination and collaboration, the more failures. ISIS in that sense looks much more serious, which is understandable: the core management consists of professional staff, and experience and education play a defining role here. We will see how events will develop, but now we can talk about trends. However, here is a curious situation: Russia came to Syria to fight with ISIS “on the outskirts.” As a result of its intervention and cretinism, “partners” can create a situation that all actions work in favour of ISIS, which we fought mercilessly and even defeated, according to our President. Our President is a blizzard as he breathes, so it’s not something you forget he said. However, the situation clearly swells with something not the most pleasant.