cassad on brexit

On the withdrawal of Britain from the EU
Colonel Cassad, Jun 25 2016

1. The release or even delayed the problems associated with attempts to exit of Britain from the EU, weaken the EU as a factor of the player that at this stage in the interests of Russia, which is trying to achieve easing of sanctions by the EU.The European Union in the light of the internal problems will be much less inclined to get involved in another PIndosi foreign policy adventures, which lead to disastrous results for the EU and respectively the internal Fronde then obviously the failure of the concept of European integration will play in the interests of the Russian Federation flirting with the European right and the separatists that support Brexit and in case they want to repeat this in their own countries. The strengthening of centrifugal tendencies connected with the migration policies of the EU and regional separatism (both in the UK and the EU) will force the EU as much more time to devote to maintaining internal stability than to continue the policy of expansion. For countries like Turkey or Ukraine, such a referendum result even destroy the illusory hope that they are there once get. Of course, you can dream in the style of “England ran away from the EU and now there will be the US in its place,” but is rather a clear demonstration of how the “future Europeans” divorced from reality. In practice, the British demarche, along with the growing problems with the economy and refugees, democracy will push Brussels towards a more conservative scenario of development of the EU, where the main theme is not expanding, but rather hold what we have.

2. Of course, the exit of Britain from the EU is an important victory for the US, which has long held a policy of restriction attempts of Berlin to build Europe around. You can quite clearly see, as produced by the US economic crisis hit the European economy, caused by the “Arab Spring” the migration crisis has undermined the multicultural expansionist policy of the EU, dumped the part of governments and led to a sharp strengthening of Euro-skeptics or open-minded separatists. Confusion and vacillation in the EU naturally enhances the role of the US as the host of NATO and the suzerain of Eastern European States, which implemented a policy of establishing a cordon sanitaire around Russia and the establishment of a counterweight to the influence of Berlin within the EU. Of course, one could complain that the weakening of the EU will only make it easier for US to conduct such a policy, but objectively to the referendum in Britain, Europe only passively watching another PIndosi adventure at the Russian border going on about Russophobic hysterics in Poland and the Baltic border states. All costs from such a passive policy following in the Wake of the Washington rate case escalation, it fell to the EU, and the economic costs of the cold war between the US and Russia was not divided between Russia and the US but between Russia and the EU. Such is the price of incomplete subjectivity. So I would say that the main loser is Brussels and Berlin, and the main beneficiary is the US. Russia in my opinion will be able to extract certain benefits from the incident, playing in the relations with the EU on internal European issues that will produce the all-new demarches aimed at the removal of sanctions and advocating for the normalization of relations between Russia and the EU with breeding problems of the Crimea and Ukraine the brackets of relations between Russia and Europe.

3. This story struck a severe blow to the very concept of European integration and United Europe. More recently, with great difficulty and at the cost of huge cash infusions Germany kept Greece from leaving the EU (but then even a Greek exit was called one of the greatest threats to the future of the EU), but here’s a shot from one of the key countries, and the impact unexpected, as the majority of European leaders, judging by the hysteria was in full confidence that a referendum will be held in the Scottish sample and Cameron just bargains for themselves the best conditions in the relationship between London and Brussels. Especially entertaining to watch the hysteria patriotic Westerners dreamed of a strong democratic Europe where the withdrawal of Britain from its structure it’s just a blow to the whole picture of the world, because in the logic of such persons, all must strive for in Europe, not run it. Now they frantically seek justification of what happened, blaming the elderly, working class, rural population and other “bad people” who provided for them a serious gap pattern. Similarly we can observe and ideological crisis of the “new Europeans” from the Ukraine, who are standing in the dressing room of the EU in bewilderment watching as one of the countries to which they were oriented in the “European integration” packs his bags and wants to get out of the “European home.” Imagine that if you are 15-20 years sincerely believed that Ukraine will enter the EU and live in a family with a brotherly European nations, including with the British, and now this. Now I have to tell you that “nothing is wrong,” like in the case of the Dutch referendum or vote of the Senate in France. This happens because of the idea of modern Europe in the minds of “euroization” of citizens is seriously at odds with the real EU and its problems.

4. In the longer term, the crisis over Britain’s attempts (successful or not) to withdraw from the EU would undermine the foundations of the current world order, where the crisis of the global project “European integration” is in fact a continuation of the structural crisis of the world order, which leads to the emergence of new states on the political map of the world and new wars (with all the obvious economic, demographic and social consequences) that accompany these changes. The fact that until recently seemed unshakable, begins to crumble and is now changing our eyes:

  • once solid chain of middle Eastern autocracies crumbled to dust by US;
  • more recently, a completely mythical and abstract Caliphate in our eyes, became a factor of political and military reality and the first aggressive terrorist state;
  • the once powerful project of a United Europe is withering under the onslaught of migrants, economic problems, internal separatism and other consequences of foreign adventures;
  • more recently, stability in the former Soviet Union increasingly linked to the hot or heated by the conflict;
  • is being increasingly questioned the unconditional leadership of the US in the world and especially in the US.

5. In this regard, the British move is part of the structural crisis of the modern devices, the existence of which is clearly ahead of inertial-based prediction that a few days ago didn’t even allow the thought that this is possible. The future is coming much faster than they would like the singers of evolutionary development. From my point of view, in the framework of поздневашингтонской world order Russia does not expect anything good, so changing bases of world order within the framework of the current structural crisis, opens for Russia a variety of perspectives. Of course, this crisis beats and across Russia (as it is included in the current system of world order) and here already all depends on its ability to survive and adapt to the changing environment. You can of course cling to the naive illusion that everything will go back to 2008 or even 2013, when there was no cold war with the West, not raging war in the Ukraine and with the Caliphate in Syria, the dollar was at 35, and the oil at 100, but it would be from the field of dangerous illusions of our “небратьев” yearning in the European waiting room in the hope that the Lord will pay attention to them without making any real efforts for self-development. Changing world it is necessary not to deny, but to adapt to it and use reaching changes in their favour. It needs to have the foreign subjectivity, which is so frustrating Washington and Brussels, and well this subjectivity be implemented as part of the opportunities. Attempts of withdrawal of Britain from the EU is not the last gift of this kind.

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