Why the Turkish revolution failed
El Murid (Anatoly Nesmiyan), Fontanka, Jul 16 2016
60 dead, 1000 wounded, 750 arrested, two shot down helicopters, bombs at government buildings: in short, the coup in Turkey failed. Hot pursuit can only assume that was the reason for the failure of the rebels, and that he managed to make Erdogan to seize the initiative and fracture of the situation. Errors the rebel classic: was not arrested (or disposed of) political leadership. This is the number one task of any revolution. Thus the rebels have enabled Erdogan to navigate, figure out the situation and begin to coordinate the actions of loyal and hesitant. The second error is directly followed from the first. Support Erdogan village and the natives of the village, the citizens are first or second generation. “Aunts Erdogan” and his “Maidan” by definition, more organized, aggressive and mobile. Ideological opponents of the Islamists’ professed values and the lifestyle of urban civilization, and hence more fragmented, atomized, reflective. Nevertheless, they have their own mechanisms of organization and mobilization; the party. The opposition parties did not support the coup, systemic and non-systemic leaders, opposing Erdogan and his Islamists, remained aloof from the events.The conspirators “hung” in a vacuum, having no organized social support, although their social base is very large, and showed the events of the night: Ankara supported the coup, was enthusiastic over the news of the coup in Antalya, but all support has resulted rather in likes in social networks than in the actions in the “real world.” In the end, more mobile supporters of the Islamists blocked the actions of the rebels and gave his idol important thing: time. In any coup the main and the most informative are the first hours, and if at the beginning is breaking the script, then revolution almost no chance. And the third mistake, which, most likely, was the system: any conspiracy is being prepared in secret, and therefore it is possible that the preparation for the performance was recorded, so the rebels had to start early (for a very large number of design coups such a development is inevitable). Improvisation has failed, the preparation was not complete, so technically the coup was done from scratch, and the first failure resulted in an avalanche violation handling. Tomorrow, the overall picture will become much clearer, so now we can only say that Erdogan has managed to retain power, now there will inevitably be a phase of repression, the question is what will he do then. Dissatisfaction with his policies split the country, and he must either further tighten the already soft mode, or to review the policy. Both approaches have a number of very controversial issues, so the decision of Erdogan now can’t even predict it myself.