Israeli military expects Daesh attack on its southern border ‘within six months’
Raf Sanchez, Telegraph, Sep 9 2016
Israel is bracing for a Daesh terror attack along its southern border with Egypt within the next six months, a senior IOF officer has warned. Wilayat Sinai, Daesh’s affiliate in the Sinai desert, has been stealing armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles from Egypt’s military and Israeli expects the weapons will soon be turned against its forces on the Egyptian border. The Israeli officer told The Telegraph that Wilayat Sinai had stolen at least one Egyptian M60 battle tank and had amassed a supply of Russian-made Kornet missiles, which can strike targets more than three miles away. The officer said:
It could happen today, tomorrow, in a month but within the next six months we will come into an engagement with Wilayat Sinai. In the next six months they will try to carry out an attack and try to do something against Israel.
If the officer’s prediction is borne out, it would be the first attack on Israel’s southern border since 2012, when militants in Egypt launched a series of cross border raids. The most dramatic was in Aug 2012, when Jihadis overran an Egyptian base and killed 16 cops before stealing two armored vehicles and breaking through the Kerem Shalom border crossing. One of the vehicles exploded at the checkpoint, but the second vehicle outmaneuvered IOF troops and tanks and raced towards a nearby kibbutz, apparently intent on carrying out an attack. The IAF was forced to carry out an airstrike within its own borders in order to finally destroy the racing armored car before it could reach a civilian area. At the time of the 2012 attack, the group was known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, the Supporters of Jayloomia, and was linked with AQ. But in 2014 the group pledged allegiance to Daesh and to the leader of its so-called caliphate, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It took up the name Wilayat Sinai, meaning Sinai province of the Islamic State. The group claimed responsibility for bombing the Russian Metrojet plane in Oct 2015, killing all 224 people aboard shortly after it took off from the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. Israel believes that the group is significantly better equipped now than it was four years ago. Zack Gold of the Atlantic Council said:
The worst case scenario for Israel was a cross-border raid in which Wilayat Sinai is able to capture Israelis and bring them back over the border. Such an operation would force Israel to launch retaliatory or rescue missions into the Sinai, either with Egypt’s permission or without it. Either ways (sic – RB) it would be very bad for relations and you would probably see protests in Cairo if there was an Israeli operation in the Sinai.
In the years since the 2012 attack, Wilayat Sinai has focused its efforts on attacking Egyptian military targets, although more recently it has also carried out attacks against civilians. Egypt’s military responded with a series of operations that have limited the group’s operating space but it remains active in the eastern Sinai. Israel and Egypt work closely together on counter-terror operations in the the Sinai. Daesh regularly threatens to carry out attacks against Israel, and in August Wilayat Sinai said the group planned attacks against the Jewish state. A Jihadi said in an online video:
Oh Jews, wait for us. The punishment is severe and soon you will pay a high price.
But for all its rhetoric, Daesh has so far not carried out any centrally organised attacks on Israel. While some “lone wolf” Palestinian attackers may have been inspired by them, there has been no equivalent of the attacks in Europe against Israel. In an article published in a Daesh newspaper in Mar 2016, a writer argued that the fight against Israel should not be prioritised over the battle against Arab regimes which do not enforce their extremist beliefs. Gold said:
Attacking Israel was one of the foundational reasons for the creation of Ansar Bait al-Maqdis in 2011. That has certainly not left the group’s mind. Whether or not they are capable of attacking Israel, they still have the intention.
The IOF officer said:
I feel that Wilayat Sinai will eventually come under pressure to carry out its threats against Israel. Many terrorist organisations use Israel as a prop but, for these statements to have any content or not be seen as empty, something must eventually happen in the field.