Overview of the military situation in the battle for Aleppo, Sep 23 2016
Colonel Cassad, Sep 26 2016
After the collapse of the Pindo-Russian deal, the fighting near Aleppo and in the city after a slow start, returned to their traditional scale. Apply the whole range of armaments, the intensity of the artillery and airstrikes has almost reached peak values comparable to the critical moments of the battle for the quarter Rameses and artillery base. To the South-West of Ramouseh, the SAA’s attempt to advance to the Khan Tuman had only limited success, which allowed to expand the zone of control in the area Mushrifah and in the area of stone quarries South-East of the road from Khan Tuman – Ramouseh. Mutual attack hand in the 1070 Apartments Project also had significant success: a separate building passed from hand to hand, but full control over the development of any of the parties could not be established. The Syrian air force bombarded constantly 1070 Apartments Project with bombs, including incendiaries, but the squeeze of infantry “al-Nusra” from there until it comes out. Due to this hampered action against Al-Hikma and district Rashidin Rashidin 4 and 5. For good, for total comfort, the CAA needs to take 1070 and Al-Hikma, in order to impede the militants’ reactivity in the direction of Ramouseh.
To the north-east of Romouseh, the SAA has made some progress to the quarter of al-Ameria, occupying part of an industrial building and offices destroyed by the route passing through Ramouseh. This activity has a quite prosaic sense: now reduced channel supply groups of SAA in Western Aleppo districts implemented through the ruined quarter and the road at the artillery base, which leads to building 3000 and quarter Hamadaniyah. The control of the main highway, will facilitate the logistics of Syrian troops in the south-west of Aleppo.Yet there is some progress, but complete control over the road is still far, since it is necessary to seriously clean up the western part of the district of al-Ameriya. In general, here the situation is stable enough, the SAA have the initiative, but according to the announcement, the main impact is not applied here.
Eastern parts of Aleppo.
Apparently, success in the battle for the artillery base and quarter Ramouseh, set up the command of the Syrian army in an optimistic mood, so it was announced the offensive on the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo, which began today after lunch. The assault team moved from the airport of Aleppo and took of the assumption in front of dense residential and industrial development in the direction of the citadel of Aleppo. It appears that the plan of operation will not be reduced to a simple sweep of the quarters, and involves dissecting punch into the western districts of Aleppo, which will allow to dissect the territory controlled by fighters of the city into two parts, which will be much easier to force to surrender, than if you try to digest the entire city at a time.Simultaneously, the applied secondary attack in the north-east of Aleppo where the SAA today have advanced in the area of the camp Handarat, capturing the militants a few buildings that will allow to stop militant activity inside of the boiler towards the Castello, as it operates here, Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki was forced to bring additional forces from the eastern districts of the city and to stop trying to break through the positions of the SAA to the road, where there are Russian troops.
The Actions Of Russia.
Russia still retains control over the Castello Road, which, irrespective of the deal with Pindostan, is expected to be used as a channel for the release of civilian and militants who wish to leave the city. Intensification of fighting in the city will naturally cause an increase of flow of refugees in neighborhoods controlled by SAA and Kurds, and those who want to take advantage of humanitarian corridors and escape to Idlib. Russia as before will play a providing role in supporting operations of the SAA and the Shiite militias advisors, technical intelligence, and aviation (possibly artillery). In the next couple of months, aviation action group VKS RF should support the aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” (which will permit an increase in the intensity of air strikes in the northern and north-eastern parts of the country). Probably the occasional sea-based cruise missile strikes will be applied also. Probably continue using long-range aircraft to support SAA in the area of Palmyra and Deir-ez-Zor, the negotiations on the resumption of use of the Iranian air base at Hamadan continue.
Iran over the past two months sent on the line at Aleppo up to 8,000 infantry (Iraqis, Lebanese, Afghans) and as before there are several hundred soldiers from the IRGC. Iraq still regards Iran as an important donor of manpower to maintain the size of the Shiite irregular groups. Objectively, in 5 years of war, the mobilization potential of Syria is very much undermined, and therefore the SAA and Kurds and Daesh are largely forced to rely on external sources of replenishment of the number of regular units bearing the loss, of course not giving up and from internal sources through the mobilization of volunteers. The same applies to weapons, as all the parties are largely dependent on the supply of arms and ammunition from foreign patrons. Daesh is affected to a lesser extent, but it is also not poor due to the black market and trophies. Iraqi Shiites and Hezballah now tightly follow in the wake of the policy of Iran, and Tehran is in a great way to strengthen its rule in the Shiite world, as it positions itself as the flagship program of struggle against radical Sunnism imposed by the Toads, moreover, that in addition to Syria and Iraq, Tehran is opposed to Riyadh also in Yemen. Winning the battle for Aleppo is considered by Iran as an important victory over the Toads and their plans for the dismemberment of Syria.
The actions of Pindostan.
Pindostan clumsily trying to pedal a theme of a humanitarian convoy, but it looks even more strained. Revealed the background of the agreements with Russia, caused a natural criticism among radical militants oscillating between pro-Pindo groups and the Syrian AQ. Threats to Russia and Assad have not yielded any results, rather than a more scary face posed by Pindosis in the UNSC, the more bombs fell on the fighters around Aleppo. Today even the office of “al-Jazeera” in Aleppo was covered. No-one is impressed with suggestions related to the introduction of a unilateral no-fly zone whereby only Pindosi coalition aircraft can fly and bomb in Syria, which has revealed the detachment from reality of Pindosi diplomats, who are trying cheap threats to save the militants suffering setbacks at Aleppo. Russia, in principle, is not against the return to the already announced terms of the deal on Syria, but Pindostan has already pronounced them unacceptable, as an open acceptance of these items will cause serious unrest among the militants, and will face severe criticism in Pindostan. And even if it does not take into account the problems with handling such an audience, part of which wants to obtain arms from Pindostan, but to obey Nusra or AQ. At this stage, Pindostan allowed Syria policy drift, apparently waiting for the end of the race. Hysterical impact of Deir ez-Zor, revealing wiggle room in the agreements with Russia and the closed part of the transaction, termination of the attack the Kurds in al-Bab, the troubled relationship with Erdogan and Kurds in the North of Syria.The picture that emerges is very mediocre, especially when compared with the beautiful plans with arrows and taken cities that generals from the Pentagon presented in January of this year. It is already clear that this year there is no will for Raqqa, there is a small chance of beginning of the siege of Mosul, but it’s not that. Over a month before the election of the POTUS, (the logjam) the Obama administration by and large leaves to its successors remains solid.
The other fronts.
In Hama after the start of offensive operations against SAA fighters moving to the provincial capital, the Syrians managed only a few to oust the militants in the south-eastern part of the ledge, but all progress was rather limited and was paid fairly significant losses in men and materiel on both sides, to which were added a few dozen militants killed in the course of a successful Russian attacks VKS RF and Syrian air force. SAA here decides enough local tasks associated with mild threats Hama and return in August lost territories.The militants, in turn, do not mind to repeat the offensive in the direction of Khami, but until forced to repel the attacks of the SAA. The battles here are mostly positional in nature, although at the expense transferred to reserves and the increase in the quantity of barreled and jet artillery, the SAA should obviously go smoothly. The main thing is that the operation in Hama was unable to alleviate the situation of the insurgents at Aleppo, and did not affect the tide of battle for the artillery base, and after all, it was a serious bet. Intensified fighting in the mountainous area of northern Latakia, where today, the SAA recaptured from the militants two settlements and continued fighting for the mastery of a number of important heights, the capture of which will allow you to get closer to solving the problem to complete the sweep of northern Latakia from the militants and the output to the borders of Idlib. Fighters realizing the growing threats from both Latakia and Aleppo, are engaged in consolidation of their organizational structures, which may indicate that the leadership of the militants believe that there is a threat directly to Idlib and you want to discard internal strife in the face of growing threats.The main problem of the militants supply channels from Turkey shifted to district Azaz – al-Rai – Jarablus, and huge losses in men and materiel in the battle for Aleppo will need time for their compensation, although from the point of view of financial resources, the financing of militants by Toads & Thanis is preserved, but there is an urgent need for fresh cannon fodder and weapons.The role of Nusra in these hands remains ambivalent, as the failure of the transaction on Syria between Russia and Pindostan has postponed the issue of separation of this group from the others, which puts her in a competing position to the structures that are now being created urgently in Idlib. The main success of the SAA has been the surrender of one of the enclaves of the insurgents in the district of Homs on the model of the surrender of Darayya. Militants and civilians (several hundred people) who wished to leave the area of Homs and moved to the territory controlled by the militants and SAA frees another piece of territory and most importantly, additional forces for operations in the area Rastanskogo Kotla (Растанского котла) and on the east of Homs province, where militants have intensified their activities, moving to the north-east of the city was captured two checkpoints from the route of Homs – al-Salaam).
After the resumption of intense fighting, the CAA retains the initiative on most fronts of the Syrian war and especially the battle for Aleppo. Attempt to immediately resolve the issue with Aleppo is not without risk (if to divide the city into two parts does not work, the troops will get bogged down in street fighting and can get a favorable situation for the unlocking impact from the outside), but also not without reason – the militants of the now demoralized by the defeat in the battle of Ramush, they suffered serious losses, there are serious problems with ammunition for heavy weapons, constant airstrikes have an extremely negative impact on the part of the personnel. Naturally, the command of the SAA is reasonable attempts to make use of these favorable factors.On the other hand, the SAA also greatly exhausted by the months-long battle and substantial losses. Without constant replenishment lines for Iranian and Russian support, offensive operations there for a long time I had to stop. But as both sides know perfectly well that this battle is attrition in the furnace of battle, throw all new and new resources, because the winner takes all and the loser will reap the consequences of this strategic failure. Given how Pindostan came out of the ceasefire in Syria, the SAA and its allies have some time when the West will not be able to help the militants near Aleppo (except diplomatic and informational activities), especially because of the approaching Pindo presidential election will hamper Pindo military activity, although I would not completely rule out a military adventure on the part of Washington. So Assad and Co have a kind of time window to use military means to improve their position in the Syrian war, while in which it will be possible to negotiate with Pindostan already for a few other conditions. There certainly does not need a war here for a long time and it is necessary to focus on planning action in the months ahead, attempts to resolve the situation on impulse, as shown by a typical example of Turkey, to no good arguments, and our last year’s tossing of caps in honor of the “quick victory on Daesh” are also very memorable.War there are serious, more than serious opponents, but the greater the successes in the fight against them. The Syrians and their allies can wish you good luck in the upcoming battle for Aleppo.