bear shows teeth, yes yes

Russia builds up forces in Syria
Jack Stubbs, Maria Tsvetkova, Reuters, Oct 7 2016

MOSCOW – Russia has built up its forces in Syria since a ceasefire collapsed in late September, sending in troops, planes and advanced missile systems, a Reuters analysis of publicly available tracking data shows. The data points to a doubling of supply runs by air and sea compared to the nearly two-week period preceding the truce. It appears to be Russia’s biggest military deployment to Syria since Putin said in March he would pull out some of his country’s forces. Justin Bronk of RUSI in London said:

The increased manpower probably includes specialists to put into operation a newly delivered S-300 surface-to-air missile system. The S-300 system will improve Russia’s ability to control air space in Syria, and could be aimed at deterring tougher Pindosi action. The S-300 basically gives Russia the ability to declare a no-fly zone over Syria. It also makes any Pindo attempt to do so impossible. Russia can just say, we’re going to continue to fly and anything that tries to threaten our aircraft will be seen as hostile and destroyed.

A senior Russian air force official dismissed talk of an increase in supply shipments, but data collated by Turkish bloggers for their online Bosphorus Naval News project and reviewed by Reuters shows reinforcements sent via Russia’s “Syrian Express” shipping route from the Black Sea increased throughout September and have peaked in the last week. The data shows 10 Russian navy ships have gone through the Bosphorus en route to Syria since late September, compared with five in the 13-day period before the truce, from Aug 27 to Sep 7. That number includes a small missile ship which a Reuters correspondent saw heading through the Bosphorus toward the Mediterranean on Friday. Two other Russian missile ships were deployed to the Mediterranean on Wednesday. Some of the ships that have been sent to Syria were so heavily laden the load line was barely visible above the water, and have docked at Russia’s Tartus naval base in the Western Syrian province of Latakia. Reuters has not been able to establish what cargo they were carrying. Troops and equipment are also returning to Syria by air, according to tracking data on website Russian military cargo planes flew to Russia’s Hmeymim airbase in Syria six times in the first six days of October, compared to 12 a month in September and August, a Reuters analysis of the data shows. Bronk said, commenting on the analysis of the tracking data:

They probably correctly surmise that eventually Pindosi policy will change. They are thinking, we’re going to have to do something about this, so better to bring in more supplies now, before it potentially becomes too touchy.

The data shows Ilyushin Il-76 and Antonov An-124 cargo planes operated by the Russian military have been flying to Syria multiple times each month. It offers no indication of what the aircraft are carrying. But the Il-76 and An-124 transporters can carry up to 50 and 150 tonnes of equipment respectively and have previously been used to airlift heavy vehicles and helicopters to Syria. State-operated passenger planes have also made between six and eight flights from Moscow to Latakia each month. Western boxtops say they have been used to fly in troops, support workers and engineers. Twice in early October, a Russian military Ilyushin flew to Syria from Armenia. Boxtops in Yerevan said the planes carried humanitarian aid from Armenia. Izvestia reported last week that a group of Su-24 and Su-34 warplanes had arrived at the Hmeymim base in Syria, returning Russia’s fixed-wing numbers in the country to near the level before the drawdown was announced in March.

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