murid on obama’s plans for iraq

Meeting of Obama
El Murid, Oct 14 2016 13:33 MSK

Today, the White House pass (пройдет) a meeting which reviews measures for the intensification of Pindosi military policy in Syria. Among the proposed scenarios is the scenario of a massive strike coalition against Syrian troops and military installations. While this is all playing on the nerves, it’s about the same as a different kind of demonstration on the part of Russia. The likelihood of a decision in favor of direct strikes is still not too large, although the Pentagon is openly pushing for this. A more likely scenario is the beginning of a massive military assistance to the militants of “moderate opposition”, including Nusra. Pindostan, in fact, is in no hurry to recognize them. Nusra was included in the terrorist list, but now after the rebranding there is a possibility of maneuver on this issue. Nusra is one of the most motivated and capable groups, with serious potential to gather other small and medium-sized militias under its banners. Pindostan can begin deliveries of weapons, with the exception of MANPADs, but the refusal of direct shipments does not exclude the “hybrid” participation calculations of MANPADs of the countries of the Gulf under the guise of militants. The logic here is quite obvious: the supply of MANPADs (средств ПВО) directly to militants creates a threat to Western aviation, but the use of a “hybrid” (“гибридного”) option solved the problem, but eliminated the threat. We know, for example, in the Georgian war, where on the side of the Georgian punitive poly-Makhnovite (полумахновской) army fought the Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems (расчеты ПВО). For the West it is important to close the sky over Aleppo, and over all Syria.

Having lost air superiority, offensive capabilities of the Syrian army will be severely eroded, as on the ground without air support the Syrians and the mercenaries begin to bear very high losses that under conditions of severe shortage of resources, including human, to quickly stop any offensive operation by Assad. In addition, Pindostan is preparing for an offensive coalition operations in Mosul. The prospects for the coalition is very uncertain. Collected almost 170,000 people of the Iraqi army, Kurdish Peshmerga, the Iranian “extamatov” (“ихтамнетов”) and Shiite punitive Sonderkommando from Iraq itself will have to take a well-fortified city with a million people (until 2014 in Mosul has lived nearly 2 million people), which protects about 25,000 fighters. The coalition with great difficulty conducting the operation in scope of Mosul, and for two months trying to block it. Most of the fighting takes place on small and medium-sized towns around Mosul, and it is worth noting that no impressive results, the Iraqis do not show. Mosul, apparently, decided to take it by elimination, by frontal assault, as shown by operations in Tikrit, Ramadi, Fallujah catastrophic losses for the attackers. Neither of which a ratio of 3 to 1 in offensive actions it is not: in Fallujah, the ratio was increased to 20 to 1 in favor of attackers, but even in this case the fighting was going on a month (despite the fact that Fallujah is a city with an area of about 10 sq km (including suburbs), and the loss ratio was absolutely indecent of 10:1 in favor of the Iraqis. With such statistics, the capture of Mosul requires a group numbering 2 or 3 times more than is collected now, but there’s nowhere to get that many people.

It is worth noting that recently, tactics of ISIS in Iraq began to change. If earlier, the militants have demonstrated an incredible tenacity in defence, forcing the Iraqis to break through the defensive lines and carry the above catastrophic losses, its tenacity in defence now is considerably smaller, the militants retreat under severe pressure, but now the communication takes place is a real “swarm war”, when out of the wilderness take place daily raids of mobile groups of literally two or three pick-up trucks armed with machine guns and artillery. This led to the fact that the Iraqis are forced to condense the network of roadblocks and create additional alarm groups, to divert a serious force of aircraft in the search and the hunt for such groups. All this reduces the possibilities for the concentration of troops for an attack on Mosul. Maybe the change in tactics by ISIL is aimed at the new military commander of the Tajiks, Homorod Khalimov, who himself fought with the guerrillas and has practical experience of action both on the one or the other side. At the meeting, Obama will address issues related to the attack on Mosul announced for the end of October.

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