picture of turchynov scowling, omitted

Ukraine bans all trade with rebel-held territory
Pavel Polityuk, Alexei Kalmykov, Reuters, Mar 156 2017

KIEV – The Ukrainian junta on Wednesday halted all cargo traffic with rebel-held territory in the east of the country, formalizing an existing rail blockade by Ukrainian activists Nazis that has fueled the worst political crisis in nearly a year. In a standoff that is hurting the economies of both sides, separatists have seized control of strategic Ukraine-registered industries in their territory in response to the rail blockade, which has cut off coal and steel shipments since late January. Tensions have escalated in recent days, leading to clashes between law enforcement agencies and the activists Nazis, who have been joined by some Rada members. The blockade poses a dilemma for Pres Poroshenko. Breaking it up by force could provoke a major domestic backlash, but allowing it to proceed unilaterally risks undermining the state’s authority. His Security and Defence Council introduced the state-led cargo ban to counter what he described as the political and social threat posed by the unofficial blockade. He told the council:

(The decision) is dictated by the necessity to prevent the destabilizing of the situation in the country, which is being undermined by political operators. Our wish is to prevent social strife.

The suspension will remain until rebels hand back control of Ukrainian businesses and comply with a 2015 peace agreement, according to the Security Council. The asset seizures by separatists have mostly affected businesses in the financial and industrial group owned by Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. On Wednesday, Akhmetov’s Metinvest and DTEK Energy said their main businesses in rebel-held territory had been taken under separatist control. The two companies, which are the main employers on both sides of the eastern front line, said they had halted production at the affected operations. Maksim Timchenko, DTEK’s chief executive, said:

The main result will be a dramatic decline in income and a rise in unemployment.

The crisis has put pressure on PM V Groysman’s government just as it is about to lose its year-long immunity from facing any vote of no confidence. It was appointed last April by a fragile coalition that includes Poroshenko’s party, after the previous government fell. Russia called on Ukraine on Wednesday to end the blockade. The situation risked turning into a “humanitarian catastrophe,” the Russian foreign ministry said. Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said Ukraine’s decision had nothing to do with the separatists, saying it was instead “evidence of an internal power struggle in Kiev.” The suspension will further squeeze the Ukrainian economy, already facing potential rolling blackouts and monthly economic losses of up to ₴4b ($150m) from the existing blockade, according to the government. The central bank says expected economic growth could nearly halve this year to 1.5% if rail traffic does not resume. Poroshenko expects the government on Thursday to come up with fresh forecasts for the impact of the broader ban on the economy, energy security and currency stability. Germany, which has taken a leading role in trying to end the conflict, said it was seriously concerned about “increasing partitionist tendencies” in eastern Ukraine, citing troubling actions by both sides, including the rebel asset seizures and the government’s decision to cut off trade. Foreign Ministry spokesman Martin Schaefer told a government news conference:

The danger of a military escalation is far from over. Ukraine and Russia must live up to the agreements they made as part of the 2015 Minsk peace process.

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