what if anything did trump & putin agree upon?

Will The Trump-Putin Agreement Hold?
Moon of Alabama, Jul 13 2917

syriamap20170712Source: Fabrice Balanche/WINEPbigger

The conflict between Pindostan and Russia over Syria seems to have calmed down after the recent G20 meeting between Putin and Trump. Some kind of agreement was made but neither its scope nor its bindingness is known. One common current aim is the defeat of Daesh. At the meeting between Trump and Putin in Hamburg a temporary truce was agreed for the south-west area of Syria. The Syrian government (violet) holds the city of Deraa, while various foreign-sponsored insurgent groups (green & grey), including Nusra and Daesh, occupy the borders towards Israel and Jordan. There had been some serious fighting after recent Nusra attacks on Baath city near the Golan. During these, the Israeli airforce repeatedly supported Nusra with attacks on the SAA. Under the truce agreement, the Russian side guarantees that the Syrian government and its allies stop fighting, while Pindostan guarantees that Israel, the various FSA groups, Nusra & Daesh stay quiet. The truce has now held for several days. There were no spoilers. Pindostan seems to have strong influence with ALL those entities.

Screen Shot 2017-07-14 at 03.59.10Medinat al-Baath (Baath City) – RB

East of the Deraa area, in the governate of Sweida, the SAA has continued operations against Pindo-supported FSA groups. Within a few days it has taken a lot of ground against little resistance, including a deserted Pindosi base that was not publicly known. It is possible that a secret part of the Deraa truce agreement allows for the SAA to liberate the whole area next to the Jordan border towards the east, up to the Pindosi-held border crossing at al-Tanf, which became non-viable after the SAA took all ground north of it and Iraqi militia had blocked it from the Iraqi side. Pindostan trained mercenaries at Tanf, and had planned to march them north, towards Deir Ezzor. As that route is now blocked, some of the trained mercenaries were recently transferred by air to Shadadi base in north-east Syria, where they will have to fight under Kurdish command. Others have refused to move north. Jaysh Maghawir al-Thawra, previously called the New Syrian Army, is mostly made up of local men who probably do not want to leave their nearby families and do not want to come under Kurdish leadership. Pindostan should send them home and leave the area. Today a new two-pronged move against the Daesh siege on Deir Ezzor was started. The SAA and its allies moved east from their Palmyra positions and south-east from their positions south of Raqqa. An additional move against Deir Ezzor may come from the Syrian forces further south-east near the Iraqi border. The Iraq air force has recently flown attacks against Daesh position, in the Deir Ezzor areas. This was done in agreement with the Syrian government. That may be a sign that Iraqi forces will join the fight to relieve the city, with an additional move south-west from their positions near Tal Afar. The Pindosi military has for now given up its dream of assaulting and occupying Deir Ezzor with its proxy forces.

The west and north west of Syria have been relatively quiet. A rumored imminent Turkish attack on Kurdish-held areas has not happened. The mostly Nusra-held areas in Idleb governate are still unruly. Nusra, Daesh, Turkmen, Uyghurs, Kurds, local FSA gangs, all have their little fiefdoms in the area. Assassinations and attacks on each other are daily occurrences. There is no reason for the Syrian government to intervene in that melee. The agreement between Trump and Putin over Syria might be more wide-ranging than is publicly known. For now, it seems that the parties have agreed with Pindostan on areas of influence for now. (The latter is) occupying the north-east, currently under control of its YPG proxies. It is building more bases there, with the total number now being eight or nine. At least three of these have their own airstrips. It is asking Congress to legalize further base-building. It is obvious that it plans to stay in the area even after Daesh is defeated. But the Kurds in Syria are only a minority in almost all areas they currently control. They are not united, and the YPG, the only Pindo partner, is a radical anarcho-marxist group that has no legitimacy but force. The area is landlocked and all its neighbors are against Kurdish autonomy. Pindostan’s effort to impose itself on the area is doomed. The use of the Kurds as a Trojan horse is unlikely to succeed,but the Pentagon has not yet accepted that fact. It still may try to sabotage whatever Trump and Putin have agreed upon.

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