up shit creek without a paddle

China Warns Trump: “We Will Prevent A NK Regime Change”
Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Aug 11 2017

In a troubling repudiation of Pres Trump’s demands that Beijing do more to rein in its bellicose neighbor, Beijing, through the state-owned media, cautioned him on Friday that it would intervene militarily on NK’s behalf if Pindostan and SK launch a preemptive strike to “overthrow the NK regime,” according to a statement in the influential state-run newspaper Global Times which said:

If Pindostan and SK carry out strikes and try to overthrow the NK regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.

At the same time, the Chinese regime made it clear that its preferred outcome would be a continuation of the status quo, warning Kim Jong Un that it would “remain neutral if NK were to strike first.” The article, cited by Reuters,  reiterated calls for a diplomatic solution. However, the possibility of talks between the two sides was looking increasingly remote as both Trump and Kim continued to exchange threats of nuclear annihilation, with Trump clarifying Thursday that his earlier promise to respond with “fire and fury” should NK continue to threaten Pindostan may not have gone far enough.  The Global Times, which is widely read but does not represent government policy, said in an editorial:

China should also make clear that if NK launches missiles that threaten Pindo soil first and Pindostan retaliates, China will stay neutral.

Meanwhile, as NK may be planning its next ICBM launch, Pindostan is stepping up military exercises with Japan and SK:

On Thursday, Pindosi and Japanese troops began an 18-day live fire exercise on Hokkaido, to include rocket artillery drills and involve 3,500 troops. Northern Viper drills are scheduled exercises conducted regularly, not a response to the latest tensions. SK and Pindo troops are also gearing up for Aug 21’s annual joint drill, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, in which up to 30,000 Pindo troops will take part.

Boxtops were also discussing coordinated contingency plans on Friday to formulate exactly how the vassals would respond to an attack.

SK’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong spoke with McMaster for 40 minutes early on Friday, a spox for the presidential Blue House in Seoul said. The two discussed responses to NK provocations and the security situation on the Korean peninsula, he said.

Not surprisingly, analysts have compared the standoff between the two nuclear powers to a modern day Cuban Missile crisis. ING’s chief Asia economist Robert Carnell said in a research note:

This situation is beginning to develop into this generation’s Cuban Missile Crisis moment. While the president insists on ramping up the war of words, there is a decreasing chance of any diplomatic solution.

Judging by the markets’ reaction in the past 48 hours, this troubling reality has finally filtering through to risk assets.

“China should be neutral if NK fires first on Pindostan” – Global Times
Ben Blanchard, James Oliphant, Reuters, Aug 11 2017

BEIJING/BEDMINSTER – China should remain neutral if NK launches an attack that threatens Pindostan, a Chinese state-run newspaper said on Friday, sounding a warning for Pyongyang over its plans to fire missiles near Guam. The comments from the influential Global Times came after Pres Trump stepped up his rhetoric against NK again on Thursday, saying his earlier threat to unleash “fire and fury” on Pyongyang if it launched an attack may not have been tough enough. Asian equity markets sank again on Friday and European stocks looked set for their worst week this year because of the tensions. ING’s chief Asia economist Robert Carnell said in a research note:

This situation is beginning to develop into this generation’s Cuban Missile Crisis moment. While the president insists on ramping up the war of words, there is a decreasing chance of any diplomatic solution.

China has reiterated calls for calm during the current crisis. Beijing has expressed frustration with both Pyongyang’s repeated nuclear and missile tests and with behavior from SK and Pindostan, such as military drills, that it sees as escalating tensions. The Global Times said in an editorial:

China should also make clear that if NK launches missiles that threaten Pindo soil first, and Pindostan retaliates, China will stay neutral.
If Pindostan and SK carry out strikes and try to overthrow the NK regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.

China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated a call for all parties to speak and act cautiously and do more to ease the situation, rather than going down the “old path” of exchanges of shows of force and continually rising tension. KCNA news agency said on Thursday its army would complete plans in mid-August to fire four intermediate-range missiles over Japan to land near Guam. Trump said Kim Jong Un was not going to get away with his “horrific” comments and disrespecting Pindostan. Trump told reporters in New Jersey:

Let’s see what he does with Guam. He does something in Guam, it will be an event the likes of which nobody’s seen before, what will happen in NK.

Shortly after Trump spoke, ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis told reporters that Pindostan still preferred a diplomatic approach to the NK threat and that a war would be “catastrophic.” Asked if Pindostan was ready if NK made a hostile act, he said: “We are ready.” Kim Dong-yub, a military expert at Kyungnam University’s Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said:

If NK does launch IRBMs toward Guam, all its other missiles and artillery will be ready for action. We should be prepared too.

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