update on idlib from colonel cassad

Briefly in Idlib
Colonel Cassad, Oct 14 2018

On Oct 14 of a full withdrawal of the militants from the DMZ there. Fighters controlled by the Turkish departed, taking with them their heavy weapons. A significant part of the militants, headed by HTS/Nusra, have gone nowhere and they did not take their heavy weapons from DMZ. Thus on Oct 14, there is only a partial withdrawal of forces and means of fighters. According to the Sochi agreements, from Oct 15, Russia and Turkey need to start practical implementation of the DMZ, including joint patrols. It is quite clear that while the area is HTS/Nusra and Co, it will be impossible to do for security reasons. Judging by the rhetoric, Turkey expects to issue a partial withdrawal for the beginning of the actual process of demilitarization, which probably will lead to fragmentation of the DMZ, when the Russians and the Turks will patrol part of the line of differentiation, and in some areas will continue tinkering with HTS/Nusra and Co. How satisfied with this state of affairs Moscow, Tehran and Damascus are, we are likely to learn from the official statements of Oct 15-16. However, we can say that Erdogan to Oct 15 could not comply in full his obligations, and now the question rather is, will the current pace of execution of the transaction Sochi only satisfy Russia.

Syrian sources said that those fighters who do not emerge from the DMZs of the Sochi deal will become legitimate targets for the SAA, which is ready to do the work that Turkey is unable to do. On the front line, this results in sporadic firefights and shelling. The artillery of the SAA once again handled the position of HTS/Nusra near al-Lutamina, preventing it from turning into something more significant. The official position of Damascus is still that the transition of Idlib to the control of Damascus is inevitable, and the Sochi deal between Erdogan and Putin is a temporary measure allowing the release of Idlib from terrorists by peaceful means. If the militants do not go away for good, Damascus is ready to regain control over the province by force with the help of its allies. The Russian Foreign Ministry also confirmed that the Sochi deal is a stage to Damascus regaining control of over the entire territory of Syria, and that all the people of Damascus in Syria were uninvited, or otherwise leave the territory of Syria, and only Iran and Russia were invited to Damascus. All others are the occupiers from the point of view of international law. According to Syrian and Turkish sources, Russia continues to consult closely with Damascus on the subject line of conduct in case of failure of the transaction, and Turkey, in turn, on the line of the army and military intelligence contacts with recalcitrant militants, urging them to withdraw from the DMZ for good. Is the period from Oct 15-20, when it should be the decision on the withdrawal of “recalcitrant” and if that happens, the course will power.

The Western press blames Russia for the fact that she knew perfectly well that Turkey will not be able to withdraw all fighters, and thus Russia’s aim was to show the impossibility to reach the “irreconcilable opposition” in order to ensure Assad favorable conditions for the offensive. In the Idlib clashes between the militants, the attack by Daesh and the killing of militants and civilians unknown. No-one takes responsibility for their part of the murders or admits any liability for the attacks. One of the groups has damaged the railroad going to Turkey. Checkpoints on the roads Hama-Aleppo and Latakia-Aleppo still has not been removed. It is also worth noting that the Russian military sources warn about the resumption of training him.provocations in Idlib, the more that a couple of bottles of artisanal CW that Daesh pressed HTS/Nusra. I believe that to end the Syrian war, we still will see at least one provocation with the CW. Idlib is the most appropriate place. The first deadline of the Sochi deal expires on Oct 15.

Iranian proxies in the North-West of Syria.

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