watcha gonna do, kick turkey out of NATO?

The last ultimatum
Colonel Cassad, May 22 2019

Pindostan introduced Turkey’s “last and final” ultimatum. Turkey has until Jun 3 to cancel the deal with Russia for the purchase of the S-400 air defense system, and buy from Pindostan a batch of Patriot SAMs. If Turkey will not do this, it will lose the opportunity to buy Pindo SAMs. In addition, Turkey will lose the opportunity to purchase the F-35, including those which have already been ordered. Turkey’s return to the program to develop the F-35 will be impossible. Also, Turkey could come under sanctions from Pindostan and NATO countries. The reason for the ultimatum is quite clear. The talks in Faschingstein with Turkey about the S-400 system have failed. The Turkish military has gone to Russia for training to work with the complex. Turkey has officially confirmed that the deal to purchase the s-400 is undisturbed and irrevocable. The execution of the transaction must start in the summer (? – RB). The Turkish Defense Ministry is already preparing for possible sanctions. Therefore, Pindostan went to quite typical tactics of threats and intimidation, as other tools they have traditionally used are not working. To Erdogan they just say that there will be consequences for his attempts to play in the independence game. Buying S-400 is a step towards the preservation of subjecthood (субъектности), but this step will be costly for Turkey. To buy the Patriot system and renege upon the deal for the S-400 is a step in the direction of dependence upon Pindostan and a personal humiliation for Erdogan. So rather banal purchase of modern weapons turns out to be a bifurcation point for Turkey.

Turkey has until next month to cancel a messy multi-billion-dollar Russian arms deal or face harsh penalties
Amanda Macias, CNBC, May 21 2019

FASCHINGSTEIN — Turkey has a little more than two weeks to decide whether to complete a complex arms deal with Pindostan or risk severe penalties by going through with an agreement to buy a missile system from Russia, according to multiple sources. By the end of the first week of June, Turkey must cancel a multi-billion-dollar deal with Russia and instead buy Raytheon’s Pindo-made Patriot missile defense system, or face removal from Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program, forfeiture of 100 promised F-35 jets, imposition of Pindo sanctions and potential blowback from NATO. As it stands now, the State Dept’s current offer is the final one, multiple sources told CNBC when asked whether the deadline had room for more extensions. Turkey, a NATO member, is slated to receive the Russian-made S-400, a mobile surface-to-air missile system, next month. The S-400 is said to pose a risk to the NATO alliance as well as to the F-35. A State Dept boxtop said:

NATO countries need to procure military equipment that is interoperable with NATO systems. A Russian system would not meet that standard. We underscore that Turkey will face very real and negative consequences if it completes its S-400 delivery.

In 2017, Ankara brokered a deal reportedly worth $2.5b with the Kremlin for the S-400 despite warnings from Pindostan that buying the system would come with political and economic consequences. In multiple efforts to deter Turkey from buying the S-400, the State Dept offered in 2013 and 2017 to sell the country Raytheon’s Patriot missile system. Ankara passed on the Patriot both times because Pindostan declined to provide a transfer of the system’s sensitive missile technology. All the while, Turkey has become a financial and manufacturing partner for Lockheed Martin’s F-35 jet, the world’s most advanced fighter. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon were preparing to make massive adjustments to their intricate production schedules amid a contentious negotiation with Turkey. If Turkey goes through with the Russian deal, Lockheed Martin would have to rework its supply chain on components for the F-35 fighter jet, while also making changes to its production schedule. Yet if Turkey abandons its deal with Russia, Raytheon would reorganize the Patriot missile defense system production schedule to guarantee that Turkey could receive the missile system within a faster time frame. Last year, Turkey was in the process of constructing a site for the S-400 system, according to a person with firsthand knowledge of an intelligence assessment which included satellite imagery of a concrete launch facility as well as bunkers, according to the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The new construction fits the pattern for Russia’s S-400 system, the person indicated. If Turkey does receive its S-400 from the Kremlin this summer, the system is expected to be ready for use by 2020.

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