elijah magnier optimistic as always, plus cassad comment & cartoons

Trump’s Bellicosity Sells Weapons, But Also Boosts Iran And The Palestinian Cause
Elijah J Magnier, May 3 2019

When Daesh occupied large territories in Iraq and Syria, it shifted Middle East and world attention to it, moving the focus away from the Palestinian cause. The countries affected by the Daesh horror concentrated on recovering their occupied territories in the Levant and Mesopotamia, eliminating the infrastructure of the terrorist group, and stopping its recruitment of national and foreign fighters. The goal was to freeze the expansion of Daesh and to prevent it from spilling over into other countries in the Middle East. Many militant members of Palestinian groups such as Hamas took up arms in support of either AQ or Daesh, mainly in Syria and but also to some extent in Iraq. Between 2012 and 2018 the political leadership of Hamas even supported NATO’s war for regime-change in Syria, earning the enmity of Pres Assad, whose government had defended Hamas and the Palestinian cause for decades. For years Assad resisted Pindo demands to expel Hamas from Syria, and was rewarded with treachery. But in the last two years, Pres Trump and his team have given a huge boost to the Palestinian cause and restored its lustre despite the betrayals and distractions of the last decade. Today, all those supporting the Palestinian cause are not only united against one enemy, the Pindo-Israeli coalition, but ready to fight as one body on multiple fronts.

Trump’s gifts to Netanyahu of the Syrian Golan occupied by Israel and of the whole of Israeli-occupied Jerusalem gave an enormous boost of adrenaline to all non-state actors and resistance movements in the Middle East. These groups, who enjoy financial and military support from Iran, are united not only against Pindo hegemony, but have also effectively linked themselves and their struggle to form a united front against Pindostan and Israel. This new unity is evident from Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Lebanon to Palestine. During the month of May, the sabotage attack on the UAE harbour of al-Fujairah followed by the armed drone attack on Toad Aramco by Yemen’s Houthis were clear and strong messages. The UAE and Toad hubs export millions of barrels of Middle Eastern oil while bypassing the Straits of Hormuz. These hubs will become more important in coming years. Thus the importance of the message: the sabotage and the drone attack are a foretaste of what could happen if alternatives are found to shipping global supplies through the Strait. No country in the Middle East will be allowed to export its oil if Iran is prevented from doing so. Moreover, the Israeli policy of strangling Gaza has united the various Palestinian groups operating in the city into one military operational room against the Israeli army. Twelve Palestinian military groups have joined forces in Gaza and have coordinated the bombing of Israeli cities and other targets to stand against Netanyahu’s strangulation of Gaza and its inhabitants.

The conclusion is simple: the more blatantly Pindostan and Israel disregard the rights of Middle Eastern countries and populations to live in peace among each other and recover their occupied territories from Israel, the stronger non-state actor groups will become among the populations where they operate. Iran benefits tremendously from the consequences of the Pindo-Israeli policies. It thereby increases its influence in various parts of the Middle East. It can ask its partners to defend its interests and stand with it in case of danger to its national security. Pindostan no doubt is financially profiting from maintaining instability among Middle Eastern countries, which reinforces Pindo hegemony over oil-rich countries. Keeping Iran as a model enemy has helped promote Pindo weapon sales to an unprecedented level. Tribal and ethnic struggles in the Middle East serve to keep the countries in this party of the world divided. Regional strife also prevents coordination of policies among oil-rich countries, ensuring that no commercial market exchange or monetary unification is possible in the medium or long term.

During this latest crisis between Tehran and Faschingstein, the Pindo administration has failed to protect the Gulf countries from the UAE sabotage and the Aramco attack. Nevertheless, its show of force and verbal threats, sending jet carrier and B-52 bombers to face the alleged threat from Iran, helped sell more Pindo-made military equipment, including $8b of Patriot interception missiles to oppose the threat of Iranian missiles being launched against Gulf countries. Of course, no war took place, and both Iran and Pindostan have shown their willingness to avoid it at all costs. Pompeo seems to be disregarding his earlier 12-point ultimatum, and now says that his country is willing to negotiate with Iran without preconditions. This means very little, because Iran has clearly stated its preconditions for talks with the Pindo establishment: honour the JCPoA nuclear deal, and lift the sanctions. On this basis, Iran would open discussions, but would be unlikely to make any concessions until the end of Trump’s mandate in 2020. Iran looks much stronger today and Pindostan much weaker. Hezbollah is said to be ready to go to war for Iran and to bomb Israel. Yemen is already serving Iran’s objectives with its use of drones against Toad oil facilities. The Iraqi non-state actors showed their capacities and Pindostan got the message: Pindo forces will be targeted in Iraq. In Gaza, the Palestinian groups deployed their new weapons and showed their readiness to join the common front in case of war against Israel. This general mobilisation has twisted the arms of Pindostan and Israel, imposing a no-war situation in the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Today, Pindostan and Israel have advanced weapons and the latest military technology, but their adversaries in the Middle East are also well-equipped, even if not at the same level. Their precision missiles and armed drones may be enough to maintain the necessary “balance of power.”

Trump policy strengthens Iran, but it helps to earn money
Colonel Cassad, Jun 3 2019

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Actually, Pindostan started talking about negotiations without preconditions after the sabre-rattling, and they are trying to solve the problem of Iranian influence in Syria through back-room negotiations in Russia. In Iraq, Pindostan is trying to negotiate with the current government to shelve the question of the adoption of the law on the withdrawal of Pindo troops from Iraq. In Yemen, Pindostan crawled out of the local war and supported the Stockholm process, which has already led to the truce under Hodeidah, but not the end of the war. To calculate the consequences of involving all those countries and so many actors related to their domestic and foreign policy in a possible war between Pindostan and Iran is not a trivial task. It threatens the total randomization of the entire region, and especially the paralysis of oil exports from the Persian Gulf. However, certainly in the Pentagon and the White House there are those who are “willing to risk” regardless of the consequences. As was done with Iraq. Hence the message from Iran that the price of an attack can be exorbitant. It kind of copied the tactics of Kim Jong Un, but his task was much easier. Both China and he already had the nuclear club, to which the world gradually gets used. Iran has no such guarantees, so it is on the one hand makes a terrible face and threatens to erase the entire region into dust if attacked, and on the other, is ready to negotiate with Europe and indirectly with Pindostan. That’s why on the background of strengthening the role of the IRGC in domestic and foreign policy of Iran, the Ayatollah will not allow Foreign Minister Zarif to resign. Zarif was offended that Soleimani organized Assad’s visit to Tehran without coordination with him. Zarif serves as a reliable channel of negotiations with the main actors of the nuclear deal and hypothetically, Zarif may meet with Pompeo, if it comes to talks on de-escalation. Until that moment, Iran will accumulate allies throughout the region against Pindostan and Israel, complementing its own military capabilities with a collection of various proxy forces deployed on the territory of several countries. Pindostan in turn will inflate the Iranian threat, thus earning money, and continue to lobby for new strategic projects like the Arab NATO, with which Pindostan would be able to restart its completely failed policy in the region, which as a result of the unforced errors of Faschingstein and Tel Aviv is now partially at the mercy of Iran. The latter is not slow to take advantage, although at the beginning of the Syrian war few people realized the possibility of such consequences.

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