two from colonel cassad

Visiting Dostum
Colonel Cassad, Dec 3 2019

The commander of grouping of Pindostan in Afghanistan General Miller visited the notorious Rashid Dostum, handed him a Pindo award and discussed the current situation in the country, where the most acute issues of security in connection with the rampant Taliban, and questions of the holding of elections. The people in these pictures are pretty burnt in liberal circles, as many liberals believe Dostum is a war criminal, whom human rights groups accuse of all sorts of bad. Dostum flippantly (в порядке юмора) suggested a new plan to defeat the Taliban in Northern Afghanistan, in which members of the enterprise will take six months. Interestingly, this happens against the deathly silence of the Pindo MSM and State or Pentagon boxtops regarding the possibility of a military victory over the Taliban, and shortly after Trump’s visit to Afghanistan, where Agent Donald prophesied that soon the soldiers will go home and negotiations with the Taliban will be resumed. Dostum however will have understood that if the Pindos go without direct guarantees from the Taliban, Dostum himself will be deprived of the post of Vice-President and will be forced to fend off the advancing Taliban, or else to run away from Afghanistan. Therefore a military scenario involving the Pindos is of course preferable to him, which is inconsistent with Trump’s plans to begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan before the election in the fall of 2020.



Briefly on Syria
Colonel Cassad, Dec 2 2019

Amid sluggish fighting in North-Eastern Syria and some of the successes of the SAA in South-east Idlib, notable was the attempt of blasting of the car of the Russian military police, which participated in the Russian-Turkish war patrol. In the explosion the vehicle was damaged and three soldiers were slightly injured. No one claimed responsibility for the explosion of a landmine on the route of the column in the center of Kobani. Of course, we can assume different options:

  1. Kurdish radicals;
  2. Pro-Turkish militants;
  3. Daesh, or
  4. Pindo agents.

The point is that Russia is vigorously pushing for the stabilization of North-Eastern Syria, on the border with Turkey, where it has already deployed military patrols, strongholds, air monitoring, etc, and along the M4 between Ayn Issa and Tal Temer, to the north where fighting between the Kurds with the support of SAA and militants of the Turkish-backed FSA/SNA.

Russia seeks to ensure that the situation on the border of Syria and Turkey is stabilized, and the fighting on the border “security zone” ended. This will allow them to close the deal on North-Eastern Syria, and allow Assad to throw more power at the gradual reintegration of the rest of Rozhava. It’s difficult to know what to do now, as a significant part of the forces engaged in protecting the borders with Turkey are engaged in local fights with FSA/SNA, but it allows Syria to maximize the pressure on the remaining Pindo (америкские) forces in the North-East of Deir ez-Zor.

As opponents of the Russian Federation quite understand the danger of this scenario, their attempts to counteract its implementation are fairly transparent. Pindostan attempts to gain a foothold in the oilfields of Deir ez-Zor, and tricks guide SDF/YPG with the Pindos, causing dissatisfaction with the Russian-Turkish deal from the PKK, from within Turkey, and especially from among forces controlled by the militants, not to mention Daesh. Indeed, in the case of realization of the Russian plans, the promotion of Turkey in Syria will be finally stopped, the Kurds will lose the opportunity to fish in troubled waters and will be forced to negotiate on the terms offered by Assad, the SAA will be able to more actively pursue Daesh due to the released forces, and Pindostan will find it much harder to hold on to the remnants of its position in Syria.

Of course, extending the period of instability on the border of Syria and Turkey allows Pindostan at least to slow down the implementation of these plans, so provocations against the Russian-Turkish patrols in particular and Russia in general will continue. However, after more experience of the southern front, we can assume that the Russian military can resolve the situation in their favor. This was an eloquent moment. Today, the leadership of the SDF officially welcomed the formation of the Russian strongholds in Tal Temer, Aboud and Ayn Issa, that is to limit the “security zone” Turkey will be directly to the Russian military, that the Turks had fewer opportunities to Recalling the machinations of the YPG, keep throwing FSA/SNA at the Kurds. In fact, it is the conclusion of yet another backroom deal: Russia moves the Kurds away from the M4, and Turkey needs to push FSA/SNA to the north of the road. Russia is trying to obtain the implementation of the same scenario from Turkey which was implemented north of Aleppo, which formed the front line south of al-Bab in Feb-Mar, and soon is relatively calm after 3 years of unrest, given the background of Idlib. A relaxed front and a quiet border are required for Assad to gradually establish the rule of the Damascus in those areas which the Kurds were trying to remove from Syria under various pretexts. Turkey is expected to squeeze every diplomatic advantage it can from the Covenant of Adana, which allows Turkey to carry out cross-border operations in Syria. This formally legalizes its presence in Syria, but at the same time restricts the possibilities of long-term presence there. Of course, as the stakes are very high, Russia has been forced to increase its contingent in North-Eastern Syria, in addition to deliveries of heavy equipment via Tartus to Assad, who is preparing a big operation in Idlib, and training to provide aircraft, as the scope of tasks for military police, military advisors, SOF and others, increased significantly, which is not surprising given the size of the newly-sponsored areas. Successful completion of the transaction with Turkey on the border areas opens a direct way for the final solution of the question of North-Eastern Syria, and the logical conclusion of the Syrian war. That it is not to everyone’s taste, is not a big secret. So there will be provocations, of course, but it is unlikely that their customers will be able to reverse the strategic trends.

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