colonel cassad: selection for jan 15

The British Ambassador to leave Iran
Colonel Cassad, Jan 15 2020

The British Ambassador Rob Mayar, who was detained by the IRGC while participating in protests, has left Iran. After he was arrested, having got scared and peed his pants during the arrest, he lied that he just came to take pictures and to sympathize, and his diplomatic immunity led to the liberation from the clutches of the IRGC, but he was not freed from the consequences. The next day, the Foreign Ministry of Iran pointed out to him that his actions are incompatible with his status as Ambassador and actually are fomenting unrest against the sovereign government. Well, after being caned by the Foreign Ministry, he went to pack his bags, saying that he needed to “hold some very important meetings in Britain.” It is obvious that the British have to withdraw him from temptation, for thus it is foolish and shameful to fail, though they still had to try. There are two options. Either he’ll sit at home for a while, until the story is forgotten and Britain will pretend that nothing happened, or after some time will replace uncompromised figure. The Iranians joke that the Ambassador needs to go home to wash his underpants.

Meeting in Syria
Colonel Cassad, Jan 15 2020

Meeting of Russian and Pindo military in the Syrian province of Hasaka.

Briefly on Iraq
Colonel Cassad, Jan 15 2020

The PM of Iraq has officially announced that the Iraqi government will not sign an agreement extending the Pindo troops stay in Iraq, and will support the decision of the Parliament of Iraq on the withdrawal of Pindo troops from the country. Exhortations and threats from Faschingstein have not changed the position of PM Abd’ul-Mahdi, although he remains in limbo as acting PM. The Iraqi position is officially supported by Iran, Yemen, Syria and Hezbollah. In response, the Pindo Ambassador gave the Iraqi authorities a list of possible sanctions that will be imposed on Iraq if Baghdad continues to insist on the withdrawal of Pindo troops. Unknown again fired at a Pindo military base. This time they bombarded the military base at Taji, containing Pindo, British and New Zealand military. The shelling was carried out using unguided rockets. Five rockets impacted near the base. According to the Pentagon, there were no casualties among staff of the coalition there. If we will see one or two more such cases in the coming days, we can say that the “Iranian proxies” have moved to the tactics of harrassing (беспокояющих) attacks, supplementing the pressure on the Pindo military presence, following the line of the Iraqi parliament and government. To maintain this line, Moqtada Al-Sadr called on his followers to go on anti-Pindo demonstrations demanding Pindo withdrawal from Iraq.

It is not difficult to understand that Iran will push in this direction, because only Pindo withdrawal from Iraq will be comparable in importance to the murder of Soleimani. The destruction of the Pindo bases or even ther deaths of Pindo soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan, is insufficient payment. Suleimani is worth an entire country. This is what Iran will seek, which Pindostan will prevent to the best of its ability, both by trying to undermine Iran from within and by resisting the pressure that is growing in Iraq. Pindostan said it will impose sanctions on Iraq if it dared to buy the Russian S-400 system. It is not difficult to notice that Pindostan’s tooolkit contains largely threats. Practice shows that a sovereign country can afford to buy the S-400. So the purchase for Iraq is a test. But maybe Baghdad will be limited to a half-way option, buying the export version of S-300. Inflexibility of Iraq can not be justified only by the anger of Iraq, but prior agreement of PM Abd’ul-Mahdi with the Chinese, who are interested in investing in the infrastructure of Iraq and its reconstruction after the Pindo occupation. Of course, China would be very interested in how to do this without Pindostan at his side. So this story, in addition to the Iran-Pindostan conflict, there is a second layer between Pindo & Chinese interests in the region, although China is directly not involved in the conflict, just standing on the sidelines with a suitcase full of money, expecting that the hard work of throwing Pindostan out of the region will be done by others.

Meeting of PM Abd’ul- Mahdi with the Chinese on Jan 6.

On the prospects of regime change in Iran
Colonel Cassad, Jan 14 2020

The worst thing for the Middle East will only happen when the uprising in the Islamic Republic of Iran will take place, and “people” with the active support from abroad has swept away from the face of the earth “bloody regime of mullahs.” Prerequisites for this more than enough. Unlike the USSR, Iran has enough free the country from the point of view of entry and exit. More than three million Iranian Diaspora that escaped the country after the revolution of 1979, live in Pindostan, Canada and Europe. Many of them quite officially work on the intelligence community in their countries, and I can’t wait when the people will again call for the authorities to restore the old pre-revolutionary elite of the Shah. Most of them visit Iran, meet with relatives, and are simultaneously engaged in intelligence gathering, doing business etc. Their relatives travel abroad with equal freedom and meet with whomever they want in Turkey, reuniting families as a rule. Despite the departure of a considerable number of emigrants after the revolution, the majority of Westerners remained at home, continuing with varying intensity to lead the former way of life. Many of the elderly parents among them perceived a lack of business earning opportunities abroad. Any reprisals against them were not carried out. Annually by 2 million tourists from Iran visit Turkey. An Important phenomenon in modern Iran is a monstrous spread of drug addiction. Not for nothing. Drug production in Afghanistan increased tenfold after the arrival of the Pindos, and this applies not only to traditional opium and hashish, but also to synthetic drugs. One of their main markets is Iran. For this reason all sorts of rules & regulations have been instituted, including the prohibition on the sale of alcohol to the millions of impoverished Afghans resident as a result of the war of the 1980s, the longest land border being with Afghanistan, and difficult to protect.

This whole set of factors, along with a constantly declining standard of living, because of the sanctions and costs to support the Syrian authorities, a large number of secularly educated youth, Western ideals having spread among them of “a rocking situation” by the propaganda of Pindostan and Israel could lead to “Maidan” and the overthrow of the government. History has not yet seen a single case since 1991 where elimination of an anti-Pindo regime has led to prosperity. This is especially true in the Middle East. The only possible consequence of the overthrow of the Vilayat Faqih and is the destruction of Iran as a unified state and a civil war of all against all, like Syria, Libya or Yemen. Given the relatively high standard of living and education, the population of Iran cannot fail to notice the impending disaster. Many Iranians are openly talking about it and trying to prepare “alternate airfield” in case of instability. In particular they are trying to purchase property and residence permits in neighboring countries, mainly in Turkey, where prices are low, as well as to UAE, Syria, Lebanon, possibly in Europe, Canada, Pindostan, Australia. In Turkey, citizens of Iran are in second place after those of Iraq in the amount of real estate purchased by foreigners. Preparing for the worst just in case, Turkey has built a concrete wall along the entire Iranian border, just as it has on its borders with Syria and Iraq. The official reason at the present time is the prevention of illegal migration from Afghanistan, closely associated with drug trafficking.

According to Turkish experts, in case of overthrow of the government in Iran and the onset of chaos, like Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran will face losses of more than 30 million people, 40% of the population), due to the fact that currently half of the population is a fairly high standard of living only through expanded government social programs. With their discontinuation, a significant part of the population will be doomed to half-starved existence. In Turkey there is serious fear that with if the Iranian government falls, more than 20 million people will rush west through the eastern border of Turkey. To this figure should be added several million Afghans, who remain at home only because of the Iranian border guards. Many of them will prefer to do most affordable and profitable business, drug trafficking. Turkish experts believe that if Iranian migrants cross the border, Ankara will not put obstacles in their path of flow to Europe, because it has no funds to maintain them. Thus the overthrow of the Iranian leadership will inevitably lead to a humanitarian catastrophe not only for Iran and neighbouring countries but also for Europe, to which millions of Iranian refugees will direct their steps.

Actually in this scenario, Pindostan will strive systematically to derail the standard of living in Iran to create the conditions for a social explosion which will undermine the existing Iranian regime. However, several attempts in recent years have been unsuccessful, due to obvious underestimation of the stability of the Iranian political regime and its main social base. Iran does not hesitate to use open violence in the suppression of unrest, which impedes the realization scenarios of the classic “color revolution” through non-violent resistance.Any serious attempt at a coup in Iran will lead to very considerable bloodshed, particularly bearing in mind the religious factor. Iran is having enough trouble trying to overcome the effects of the sanctions, so it will be interested in establishing a tighter control over Iraq in the sense that there needs to be squeezed from the control of Pindostan and NATO, which will then allow Iran to bypass some of the sanctions and to seek closer cooperation with China which can mitigate the effects of sanctions due to the large-scale mutually beneficial projects, where there is always a military and political option associated with the development of a Chinese naval base on the Persian Gulf.

4 Comments

  1. traducteur
    Posted January 16, 2020 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Iraq’s infrastructure is in bad shape, by all accounts. If anyone can sergeyh it, it’s the Chinese.

  2. niqnaq
    Posted January 16, 2020 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    my bad

    🙂

  3. niqnaq
    Posted January 16, 2020 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    вложениях = investments

  4. traducteur
    Posted January 17, 2020 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Ta.

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