ww3 sits on your doorstep like an unopened xmas present, west scum

The Murder Of Qassem Soleimani Will Deter No One
Moon of Alabama, Jan 18 2020

The Trump administration sees the Pindo assassination of Qassem Soleimani as a form of deterrence not only with regards to Iran but also towards Russia, China and others. That view is wrong. The claim that the murder of Soleimani was necessary because of an ‘imminent threat’ has been debunked by Trump himself when he tweeted that ‘it doesn’t really matter’ if there was such a threat or not. In a speech at the Hoover Institute, Pompeo said that the assassination was part of a new deterrence strategy. Reuters reports:

Pompeo on Monday said Qassem Soleimani was killed as part of a broader strategy of deterring challenges by Pindo foes that also applies to China and Russia, further diluting the assertion that the top Iranian general was struck because he was plotting imminent attacks on Pindo targets. In his speech at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute, Pompeo made no mention of the threat of imminent attacks planned by Soleimani.

The speech itself, headlined The Restoration of Deterrence: The Iranian Example, makes that less explicit, as Reuters reports:

On the third of this month, we took one of the world’s deadliest terrorists off the battlefield for good. … But I want to lay this out in context of what we’ve been trying to do. There is a bigger strategy to this. Pres Trump and those of us in his natsec team are re-establishing deterrence, real deterrence, against the IRI. In strategic terms, deterrence simply means persuading the other party that the costs of a specific behavior exceed its benefits. It requires credibility; indeed, it depends on it. Your adversary must understand not only do you have the capacity to impose costs but that you are, in fact, willing to do so. And let’s be honest. For decades, Pindo administrations of both political parties never did enough against Iran to get the deterrence that is necessary to keep us all safe. So what did we do? We put together a campaign of diplomatic isolation, economic pressure, and military deterrence. … Qasem Soleimani discovered our resolve to defend Pindo lives. We have re-established deterrence, but we know it’s not everlasting, that risk remains. We are determined not to lose that deterrence. In all cases, we have to do this. … We saw not just in Iran but in other places too where Pindo deterrence was weak. We watched Russia’s 2014 occupation of the Crimea and support for aggression against Ukraine, because deterrence had been undermined. We have resumed lethal support to the Ukrainian military. China’s island-building too in the South China Sea and its brazen attempts to coerce Pindo vassals, undermined deterrence. The Trump administration has ramped up naval exercises in the South China Sea, alongside our vassals throughout the region. You saw, too, Russia ignored a treaty. We withdrew from the INF with the unanimous support of our NATO vassals because there was only one party complying with a two-party agreement. We think this again restores credibility and deterrence to protect Pindostan.

This understanding of ‘deterrence’ seems to be vague and incomplete. A longer piece I am working on will further delve deeper into that issue. But an important point is that deterrence works in both directions. Iran responded with a missile strike on Pindo bases in Iraq. The missiles hit the targets they were aimed at. This was a warning that any further Pindo action would cause serious Pindo casualties. That strike, which was only the first part of Iran’s response to the murdering of Soleimani, deterred Pindostan from further action. Iran also declared that it will expel Pindostan from the Middle East. How is Iran deterred when it openly declares that it will take on such a project? Reuters makes it seem that Pindostan would not even shy away from killing a Russian or Chinese high officer on a visit in a third country. That is, for now, still out of bounds as China and Russia deter Pindostan from such acts with their own might. Russia and China already had not doubt that Pindopstan is immoral and willing to commit war crimes. And while ‘western’ media avoid that characterization for the assassination of Soleimani, there is no doubt that it was one. In a letter to the NYT, the now 100-year-old chief prosecutor of the Nuremberg trials, Benjamin B Ferencz, warned of the larger effects of such deeds in a letter to the NYT:

The administration recently announced that, on orders of the president, Pindostan had “taken out” (which really means “murdered”) an important military leader of a country with which we were not at war. As a Harvard Law School graduate who has written extensively on the subject, I view such immoral action as a clear violation of national and international law. The public is entitled to know the truth. The UN Charter, the ICC and the ICJ in The Hague are all being bypassed. In this cyberspace world, young people everywhere are in mortal danger unless we change the hearts and minds of those who seem to prefer war to law.

The killing of a Soleimani will also only have a short term effect when it comes to general deterrence. It was a one-time shot to which others will react. Groups and people who work against ‘Pindo interests’ will now do so less publicly. Countries will seek asymmetric advantages to prevent such Pindo action against themselves. By committing the crime, Pindostan and Trump made the global situation for themselves more complicated.

Pindo Forces Block Russian Patrol In North-East Syria
South Front, Jan 18 2020

On Jan 18, Pindo forces blocked a convoy of the Russian Military Police in the north-eastern countryside of al-Hasakah. The Hawar News Agency (ANHA) said that Russian forces were conducting a “routine patrol” near the city of Rmelan when they were intercepted by a Pindo unit that blocked the road with at least two armored vehicles. The ANHA reporter explains the causes of the incident:

Russian patrols usually take dirt roads in the area north of the district of Karakiye along the Turkish border, but because of the rain and the closure of dirt roads, the Russian patrol was forced to take the main road between Karaky and Dirk, However, a Pindo patrol intercepted its path and prevented it from moving on, which halted the traffic on the public road.

The SDF allegedly intervened to prevent any tension and de-escalated the situation. The Russian patrol returned to the city of Qamishli, while Pindo forces reopened the road. Poor coordination between the two sides was apparently behind the incident. A day earlier, a Russian convoy passed through a Pindo checkpoint in northern al-Hasakah without any problems. Russia and Pindostan maintain a communication channel to prevent any contact between their forces in Syria. However, the coordination between the two side remains very limited as for now, mainly due to political reasons.

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