colonel cassad on nagorno-karabakh

Turkish F-16 shot down Armenian Su-25
Colonel Cassad, Sep 29 2020

The Ministry of Defense of Armenia reports that a Turkish F-16 fighter flying from the Ganja airbase shot down an Armenian Su-25. The Armenian pilot was killed. The plane was shot down in the airspace of Armenia. In fact, this is already an open attack by Turkey on Armenia, which is receiving a formal reason to apply to the CSTO for protection. De facto, NATO member countries attacked a CSTO member country. It is also worth noting that Iran is transferring troops to the border with Azerbaijan. It is also worth noting reports of another unidentified aircraft, which was allegedly shot down by Iranian air defense systems in eastern Azerbaijan.

We have received reports of a plane of unknown origin shot down by the Iranian Air Defense Forces. It was found in East Azarbaijan Province.

Briefly about Karabakh.
Colonel Cassad, Sep 29 2020

1. Azerbaijan began shelling directly on the territory of Armenia. In the Vardenis area, a civilian bus was hit. Azerbaijan is justified by the fact that there were supposedly soldiers on the bus. The Armenian Defense Ministry announced that after the strikes on Armenian territory and Azerbaijan’s use of the TOS-1 system, the Armenian army will have to use long-range and powerful systems, transparently hinting at Iskander and other unpleasant things that Armenia has at its disposal. In the current realities, missile strikes on the territory of Azerbaijan seem inevitable.

2. At the front so far, no significant changes. The blitzkrieg of the Turks and Azerbaijanis got bogged down in the defensive formation of the Armenians. Both sides suffer significant losses, but the front configuration has not undergone significant changes so far. Azerbaijan states that the attacks inflicted heavy losses on the Martuni motorized rifle regiment in the Khojavand region and destroyed the Uragan MLRS. It is also stated that Colonel Karen Babayan from the 18th motorized infantry division was killed. According to Armenians, during the night attacks of Azerbaijanis, they lost up to 60 people killed and more than a hundred wounded, as well as several pieces of equipment.

3. Armenia sent up to 5k volunteers to the territory of Karabakh. Taking into account the mobilization resource, within a week Armenia will be able to plant up to 15k volunteers (in addition to military reserves). Of course, Azerbaijan will also pump up the first line as losses grow.

4. The Armenians have posted a video with the destruction of one more drone:

A claim has also been made to destroy one more Azerbaijani helicopter (See South Front – RB).

5. Numerous diplomatic calls for a ceasefire have so far failed to produce any intelligible results. Azerbaijan and Turkey continue to try to achieve what they want by force.

Retreat of Azerbaijani soldiers after an unsuccessful attack.
Some of the runners are killed in the back.

Turkish drone attack on an Armenian tank.

Destroyed Azerbaijani helicopter. (See South Front – RB)

The work of artillery and MLRS of the Azerbaijani army.

Photos


Sending to the front.

An Armenian bus destroyed in the Vardenis area. This is already the territory of Armenia.

Azerbaijani children killed as a result of Armenian shelling.

A wounded Armenian woman. Her 9-year-old child was killed by an Azeri shelling.

Armenians in a bomb shelter.

Briefly about the development of events in Karabakh
Colonel Cassad, Sep 28 2020 (evening)

1. For today, Azerbaijan has much less victorious reports. After serious losses on Sep 27, today the Azerbaijanis did not have a particularly large-scale advance, which, incidentally, did not prevent them from suffering losses from the fire of the Armenians, who declared another portion of the destroyed equipment and personnel. In turn, Azerbaijan actively used artillery and UAVs to suppress the Armenian positions, also demonstrating yesterday’s drone strikes and footage from one of the occupied positions of the Armenians. It is worth noting that this is also similar to the Turkish operation in Afrin, where after the first days, the Kurds seriously slowed down the advance of the Turkish army after the initial penetration into their territory, but after a couple of weeks of such processing, their defenses gradually began to crumble, and the Turks were able to realize their numerical strength. and technological superiority. Something similar may be attempted in Karabakh as well. Azerbaijan did not succeed in blitzkrieg anyway. A very substantial price was paid for small tactical successes. On the other hand, if in the coming days Azerbaijan does not have major successes, then under the influence of international pressure and losses incurred, Azerbaijan may agree to fix a new status quo, announcing the occupation of several villages as a victory over the “Armenian aggressors”. But for Baku this will obviously be an attempt to put a good face on a bad game. Azerbaijan’s ambitions go much further.

2. Armenia threatens to use tactical missiles, including Iskander missiles, if Azerbaijan starts using F-16s in Karabakh. It is worth noting that in the event of expansion of the war space, Armenia is capable of inflicting critical damage on the Azerbaijani oil infrastructure, which will make the war for Azerbaijan completely unprofitable. Also in the country, it is prohibited to travel abroad for men from 18 to 55 years old, who are subject to mobilization. It is worth noting that Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of attracting volunteers and PMCs from Russia. This scenario is certainly quite realistic, especially if the Armenian government pays for such contracts. But so far it looks more like an attempt to hide from accusations of using Syrian terrorists for an offensive in Karabakh.

3. The Ministry of Defense of Armenia states that in 2 days Azerbaijan lost 370 killed and many times more wounded. Destruction of 32 armored vehicles is declared. Azerbaijan claims hundreds of killed Armenian soldiers and dozens of destroyed pieces of equipment. As many as 450 were reported killed yesterday. It is believed that both sides underestimate their losses and inflate the losses of their opponents. Technique can only be judged by what is confirmed by photos and videos. So far, the principle “Write more, why should you feel sorry for these Armenians / Azerbaijanis” is pressing.

4. Armenia this afternoon announced that it had shot down an Azerbaijani plane. Azerbaijan denies this, stating that it has not lost its aircraft. There are fewer reports of downed drones today than on Sep 27; most likely, the loss of part of the air defense systems in Karabakh affects. To effectively fight for air, the Armenians need more modern air defense systems or at least the same “Armor,” which, as the practice of the war in Libya shows, even in old versions, are quite capable of knocking down Turkish drones and exchanging them. But unlike Haftar, to whom the UAE supplies the ZRPK, only the Russian Federation can insure Armenia in this way. It should be noted that Azerbaijan’s statements about the destruction of the positions of the Armenian S-300 have also been refuted. The Armenians declare that the complexes are combat-ready.

5. Erdogan again stated today that Armenia should withdraw its troops from Karabakh and surrender it to Azerbaijan. Turkey continues to insist on its own, already traditionally trying to blackmail opponents by force. But as the example of Libya or Syria shows, where Turkey receives a serious rebuff, all Turkish pathos is quickly deflated. Just as Erdogan now rejects any negotiations on Karabakh, he rejected any negotiations on Libya until Sirte is given to him. As a result, Sirte was not given to Erdogan, and Turkey is now increasingly talking about negotiations, since it has not failed to intimidate opponents.

6. The Russian opposition demands from Putin to help Armenia in the Karabakh war. Once again, the Russian opposition is asking Putin to join the regional war. The reasons for such appeals are simple – they are trying to push the Russian Federation against its usual position of a regional arbiter, since by joining in for Armenia, the Russian Federation will thus immediately push Azerbaijan into the hands of Turkey and the US. Therefore, the Russian Federation will of course continue to avoid such options, maintaining contacts with both sides. Of course, if the situation already affects Armenia itself, to which the Russian Federation has obligations on the CSTO, it will be difficult to maintain its previous position. Therefore, Shenderovichi and Co, stigmatizing Putin’s military adventures in other places, urgently demand to get involved in the Karabakh war. For some reason, they did not call to send troops to Ukraine. Just as they did not call to send troops to Syria to help Assad.Quite the opposite. However, Russia has a simpler option, to supply the Armenians with additional weapons to equalize the chances. Yesterday and today it was reported that Russian military equipment is being transferred to Armenia through the territory of Iran. From what the Armenians now need, it is desirable for them to get newer air defense systems, electronic warfare systems and artillery systems. Well, you can not interfere with the sending of solid consignments of volunteers with the necessary weapons. Similarly, as long as the fighting is going on, Turkey will be sending new cannon fodder from Syria, additional UAVs and other equipment to Azerbaijan to close the weak points of Azerbaijanis.

Videos

The work of the Armenian artillery.

Killed Armenian soldiers.

Destruction of Azeri armoured vehicles.

Delivery of the wounded to Yerevan.

Armenian Volunteers.

Pegov’s Report from Karabakh.

Photos

Blackout in Stepanakert.

Turkish military transport aircraft are now constantly flying to Baku. The picture is identical to the operations of the Turkish army in Libya.

In Karabakh, in 2 days, we counted some transcendental quantity of equipment, which would be appropriate to divide by at least 2.

Azerbaijani helicopter shot down. (NB South Front comment – RB)

A destroyed residential building in Karabakh.

Serbian missiles used by Armenians.

Below are photos from the occupied Armenian position.






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