colonel cassad on karabagh (thursday)

USA, France and Russia call to stop the war in Karabakh
Colonel Cassad, Oct 1 2020

The US, Russia and France adopted a joint statement (a rare case) calling to stop the war in Karabakh. Putin, Trump and Macron, representing the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, say:

We jointly condemn in the strongest terms the escalation of violence taking place on the contact line in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. We mourn the victims and express our condolences to the families of those killed and wounded. We call for an immediate end to hostilities between the armed forces of the parties involved. We also call on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to immediately undertake commitments in good faith and without setting preconditions to resume negotiations on the essence of the settlement with the assistance of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.

Similarly, the UN, OSCE, EU, Iran and a number of other organizations and states are demanding to stop the war. In addition, Macron actually confirmed the accusations from Armenia, Russia and Iran, stating that France also has data on Syrian militants fighting in Karabakh, which Turkey brought there. Erdogan persists and continues to declare that Armenia must surrender Karabakh. This once again shows who exactly is behind the incitement of this particular war. Today, despite the losses on both sides (video and details in the evening) I will only note that Azerbaijan rejects the loss of 3 combat aircraft and 1 helicopter, as claimed by the Armenians. The Azerbaijani army also failed to achieve operational successes, and the events on the front line also have the character of a positional grinder. The sides continue to demonstrate losses to each other: Azerbaijan showed a piece of occupied territory, and Armenians showed a piece of occupied Azerbaijani positions. Turkey and Azerbaijan do not want to finish, because they expect that over time, due to the losses incurred and fewer resources, the Armenians will tremble and their defenses will begin to crumble. If they finish now, then the Armenians will of course write this defensive operation into their asset, and Azerbaijan, having seized several small villages, will have huge losses and unrealized rhetoric on Karabakh, which will increase internal tension within the country. Therefore, in the face of growing international pressure, Erdogan is trying to achieve at least some real success in Karabakh, as his time is limited. It is also worth noting that a French journalist was seriously wounded in Karabakh.

About downed Azerbaijani helicopter
Colonel Cassad, Oct 1 2020

About the shot-down Azerbaijani helicopter that fell on the territory of Iran. Initially it was reported that the vehicle was allegedly shot down by Iranian air defenses after it climbed into Iranian airspace. Then the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan stated that it did not lose the helicopter from the fire of the Iranians in the area. After that, the NKR Defense Ministry assumed responsibility for the destruction of the helicopter, which stated that the helicopter was shot down by the NKR military, after which the vehicle knocked out at the border fell on the territory of Iran. According to a statement from Karabakh, the local military did not plan to shoot down a car so close to the border with Iran and the destruction of this helicopter was called “unintentional.” There are no photo and video debris at the moment. Iran has not yet officially commented on this. It should be noted that in recent days Iran has increased its grouping near the borders with Azerbaijan, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned that it will not allow turning the “northern territories” (meaning Karabakh) into a “hotbed of terrorism” (meaning the Syrian militants whom Turkey brought to Azerbaijan For an attack on Karabakh. Earlier it was also reported about the transfer of Russian equipment through Iran to Armenia, as well as the transfer of unidentified military equipment without identification marks across the land border of Iran and Armenia. One of the dangerous scenarios for Turkey and Azerbaijan is the purchase of Iranian attack drones and drones by Armenia. kamikaze, which are very effective in Yemen. Of course, Iran is quite satisfied with the existing status quo, which Turkey is trying to violate using Azerbaijan. Iran is sending a clear signal to Baku that it does not suit it. Iranian President Rouhani called for an immediate end to the violence in Karabakh.

Speakers of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia and Azerbaijan
Colonel Cassad, Sep 30 2020

Speakers of the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan and Armenia following the results of 3 days of fighting in Karabakh. Meanwhile:

War in Karabakh. The balance of forces.
Colonel Cassad, Sep 30 2020

Briefly on the issue of the balance of forces in the Karabakh war.

Azerbaijan. 64th position in the Global Firepower 2020 rating:

Armenia. 111th place in the Global Firepower 2020 rating:

You can add the NKR army to the Armenians.

  • From 18k to 25k bayonets (plus from 30k to 60k mob potential)
  • tanks from 177 to 371 units;
  • BMP and armored personnel carriers from 278 to 396 units;
  • artillery pieces and mortars from 291 to 322 units. (including up to 44 MLRS BM-21 “Grad”);
  • aircraft – two Su-25;
  • helicopters – three Mi-24 and five other models of helicopter technology.

You can add from 1.5k to 3.5k Syrian militants to Azerbaijanis, Turkish Bayraktar UAVs, possibly Turkish systems Electronic warfare and F-16 fighters (deployed at the airbase in Ganja). In general, it is obvious that the Armenians are inferior in the number of active bayonets, they have slightly less equipment, plus technologically the Azerbaijanis have superiority. A plus for Armenia is the relief of the area convenient for defense and many years of work on the construction of field fortifications. It should be understood that the more actively Turkey helps Azerbaijan, the more unfavorable the balance of forces will become for Armenia. The economic potential is also not in favor of Armenia.

In general, Armenia is capable of successfully waging a defensive war with Azerbaijan alone. Armenia can confront Azerbaijan for some time, which is being helped by Turkey. But the longer the conflict, the harder it will be for Armenia to withstand its tension without outside help. Accordingly, after an unsuccessful blitzkrieg, Azerbaijan’s chances lie in the plane of a prolonged conflict for the depletion of resources, where Armenia is in a worse position. It will be a success for Armenia to maintain more or less the current positions and ceasefire 1.5 to 2 weeks after the start of the war.

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