colonel cassad for wednesday

Briefly about Karabakh
Colonel Cassad, Oct 21 2020

Judging by the incoming information, nothing significant happened with the counter-attack of the Armenians near Zangelan. Even if the artillery inflicted serious damage on the Azerbaijanis, the infantry and armored vehicles could not achieve anything significant, falling under the massive fire of artillery and MLRS, as well as drone strikes. So there was no encirclement of Azerbaijanis near Zangelan. Now they not only control Zangelan, but also establish control over the adjacent villages. Also, the Azerbaijanis retain control over the village of Khanlyk, which is important for the development of operations near Zangelan and the occupation of the last piece of territory near the border with Iran, which in the next 3-5 days (maximum a week) should be completely taken under control, reaching the border with Armenia. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan is probing the defense of Armenians in the direction of Kubatly and the Lachin corridor. The Armenians have to resist here, if they plan to seriously fight further. It can be noted that the similarities with the Afrin story continue: the territory is gradually being lost, the declared counter-attacks do not bring success, and calls for help to the world community do not yield results. Armenia needs to change something if it does not want to step on the Afrin rake.

Given the emergence of Azerbaijani infantry groups already northeast of Kubatly (confirming video here), the mighty offensives near Zangelan are no longer relevant. It is worth noting that yesterday both sides announced on Twitter about large-scale encirclements of each other, neither one nor the other presented anything about this. This can be attributed to traditional network overrides.

In the north of Madagiz, the front plus or minus is the same as before. Azerbaijan presses, Armenians hold on. They are holding the front, which means they are already a plus. But of course the problem is that holding the front near Martakert and Madagiz will not matter much if they reach Lachin from the south, and crawl through the mountains to Shushi. The same applies to the Agdam direction, where the Armenians are doing the best. But here, as with the Maginot Line, by itself it was powerful, but no one actually was going to storm it head-on, and that was all. So it is here. The operational situation may deteriorate so much in the next couple of weeks that, even without serious pressure, the Armenians will have to retreat to the mountainous regions to defend Shusha and Stepanakert. The same applies to the Martuni region. After the seizure of the Fuzuli region and the stabilization of the situation around Hadrut, Azerbaijanis are already probing with might and main the defense of the Armenians in the mountains in order to find weak points that would make it possible to accelerate the advance to Shusha.

In general, the situation for Armenia continues to deteriorate. All the more surprising is the comment of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, which declares, after 3.5 weeks of war, that it does not yet assess Azerbaijan’s actions as aggression against Armenia. And this despite the fact that there have already been strikes on the territory of Armenia, and many Armenian citizens have already been killed on the territory of Karabakh. Accordingly, what is there to want from Russia if Armenia itself does not regard what is happening as aggression and does not recognize Karabakh. Russia here, of course, cannot be more Armenia than Armenia itself. All this pours water on the mill of the version of the surrender of Karabakh by Pashinyan, who uses the attack of Azerbaijan and Turkey in order to drain Karabakh (weakening the Karabakh clans and the allied part of the Yerevan clans in opposition to Pashinyan), and after the war, leave the CSTO and withdraw Armenia to the West, for which the actual “energomaidan” in Yerevan in 20180 and started. In general, there are serious questions to the political leadership of Armenia in this war, even without conspiracy theories: preparations for the war are completely overwhelmed, the diplomatic position is very strange, the information support of the operations is mediocre, etc. etc.

It is noted that yesterday Armenia was able to shoot down more drones than usual, but of course even the declared number is insufficient to solve the problem of the domination of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the air. On the border of Armenia with Karabakh, Russian military with flags are marked. There are no signs of participation in the Karabakh war, they simply indicate presence, well, they serve as a reminder that the Armenian border cannot be crossed, otherwise the Turks will do so. Meanwhile, in 6 days it will be exactly one month since the beginning of the offensive of Azerbaijan and Turkey on Karabakh. Today, Moscow will host regular consultations between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and will probably prepare the announced meeting of Aliyev and Pashinyan in Moscow with the mediation of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Videos and photos

Reflecting an Armenian attack north-east of Zangelan.
The offensive is carried out by infantry lines against enemy defenses
with unsuppressed artillery and enemy UAV domination in the air.
The outcome of the offensive is a bit predictable.

Reflecting the attack of the Azerbaijani infantry with artillery.

The work of the Azerbaijan cannon artillery and MLRS.

Ruins of another village in the Jebrail region.

And then there is progress in the mountains of the Jebrail region.

Armenian infantry.

Previously shown trophies in Fizuli and Jabrayil regions are collected in a heap.

BTR-82A captured by the Armenians from the Azerbaijanis.

Video of a BMP-2 captured from Azerbaijanis in the Fizuli region
(most likely it has either been destroyed or recaptured)

Killed Armenian soldiers. Most likely, the photos were taken either in the Jebrail region, or in the Zangelan region.

Armenian infantry on the northern front.

The first confirmed Bayraktar
Colonel Cassad, Oct 20 2020

The first 100% confirmed Turkish UAV Bayraktar shot down by the Armenian air defense system. The Armenians expressed their claims on their account earlier, but apart from An-2, FH-98 and Israeli Harop, Armenians failed to defeat. Now, here is a full-fledged one, and shot down even before he struck. You can mark the unused MAM ammunition. Of course, one shot-down “Bayraktar” will not save “the father of Armenian democracy.” In Libya, Turkey has lost more than 30 of these machines, worth about $5m to $6m each, yet to have an effect.

Of course, using this texture, the Armenians are now putting pressure on Canada to completely stop the supply of any components for the Bayraktar, the Armenian lobby in the USA and Canada strongly supports this line. It is also worth noting that today the Iranian air defense shot down another Israeli “Harop,” which flew into Iranian airspace. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has already shot down 6 or 7 Azerbaijani UAVs (and one of them flew 60 km into Iranian airspace). It cannot be ruled out that under the guise of hostilities, there are attempts to probe the capabilities of the Iranian air defense system in the north-west of the country. For example, to assess the possibilities of surprise air attacks from this direction on strategic objects deep in Iran.

Against the background of systematic violations, Iran announced an air defense exercise on the border with Azerbaijan and Karabakh. A thick hint that they will shoot down even more actively, everything that will climb into Iranian airspace. Iran’s air defense is, of course, more serious than that of the Armenians, so for them it is also a training against the current Turkish and Israeli drones. They are already successfully shooting down American ones.

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