colonel cassad for saturday nov 21

Lavrov and Shoigu in Baku
Colonel Cassad, Nov 21, 18:49

After Yerevan, negotiations of the local political leadership with Shoigu and Lavrov were also held in Baku. Unlike Armenia, there were no flags at all at Aliyev’s meetings with Shoigu and Lavrov in Baku. In terms of the content of the negotiations, the parties stressed the need to fully implement the signed agreements on Karabakh and prevent various provocations. Azerbaijan welcomes the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. Aliyev also complained to Shoigu about the participation of foreign mercenaries in the hostilities on the side of Armenia. Obviously, this is an attempt to move the arrows, since the Russian Federation and Iran demand from Azerbaijan to remove all Syrian militants from their territory. As for the rest, Aliyev once again stated that the end was put in the long-term confrontation. Also, the position was once again confirmed that the issue of Karabakh’s status is closed for Baku, which, however, does not negate the possibility of recognizing Karabakh by the same France before the end of the month.

It can also be noted that during the visit of Russian ministers to Yerevan and Baku, the topic of “friend Recep” was diligently avoided in the public plane, as if he did not exist. The Russian Federation jealously protects its status as a Transcaucasian arbiter and does not allow Erdogan to get a cannon shot at him, so that he can act de facto, sending troops to Azerbaijan under bilateral agreements with Azerbaijan and Russia. Hulusi Akar stated that preparations for sending the necessary contingent to Azerbaijan have been completed. Well, then we’ll see where they actually stand and in what form they will contact the Russian peacekeepers. In general, the trip of Shoigu and Lavrov was supposed to show that Russia is the main and only arbiter in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and that this conflict at this stage, thanks to Russian diplomacy, is over.

PS. It is worth noting that there is another still unresolved issue: the issue of punishing those responsible for the downed Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter.

Features of diplomatic etiquette
Colonel Cassad, Nov 21, 13:32

A small but characteristic touch on the theme of Pashinyan. At a meeting with Shoigu and Lavrov, the Armenians “failed to find” the Russian flag. A little later, during negotiations with Lavrov, the Russian flag was suddenly found. Regarding the explanation that this is because Pashinyan is prime minister, so only one flag underlines his status.

Talks with the US Ambassador to Armenia.

At the negotiations, Pashinyan in every possible way pretended to be a pro-Russian politician, told how Russia helped Armenia and that Armenia and Russia have common strategic views on the future. The future may be common, but is there a place for Pashinyan in this future? I think no. Pashinyan also talked a lot about the need for military reform in Armenia (the reform was needed yesterday) and that Russia can help with the rearmament of the Armenian army.

Shoigu, warning the Armenians that they must strictly fulfill their obligations on Karabakh, after Yerevan left for Baku, where negotiations on the implementation of the agreements on Karabakh will also be held. Well, the Armenians were also given the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine.

Karabakh sketches by Patrick Lancaster
Colonel Cassad, Nov 21, 10:06

British military correspondent Patrick Lancaster reports from Karabakh.

“Entering Azerbaijan illegally.”

Burning of the power plant in Kelbajar.

Armenians about Khojaly.

PS1: By the way, about the military men. Azerbaijan sent a request to Russia regarding the work of Semyon Pegov (the ‘War Gonzo’ – RB) during the Karabakh war, where Pegov is accused of all sorts of different things. They cannot forget his story from Hadrut, where he disavowed Aliyev’s statements about control over the city. After that, a criminal case was soon opened against him. Of course, the chances that anyone will extradite Pegov to Azerbaijan tend to zero.

PS2: Shoigu arrived in Yerevan today and has already held talks with Pashinyan. Lavrov and Deputy Prime Ministers of the Russian Federation Novak and Overchuk will also arrive today. This is the most representative visit to Yerevan since Pashinyan came to power. Now the circumstances have changed and Russian influence in Armenia is expected to grow, if only because now it is Russia that is the guarantor of the continued existence of Karabakh.

Underestimating Turkish expansion is dangerous
Colonel Cassad, Nov 21, 8:53

]SyriaTurkish soldiers on an APC secure the streets of Afrin, north-west Syria.
Mar 24 2018. File photo: Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

Boris Rezhin, ‘Colonel Cassad’, gives his views on the current regional situation to Information Agency “Analytical Service of Donbass” on the consequences of Erdogan’s policy (including in Karabakh) for Russian-Turkish relations.

Q: What significance will Azerbaijan’s victory in the Karabakh war have for the growth of neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic ideas?

A: Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, Turkey has been using political, ethnic and religious changes in the Middle East to cultivate neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic ideas, within which it positions itself as the leader of the Islamic world. These tendencies began to manifest themselves especially actively after the unsuccessful military coup in 2016, when Erdogan took a course to abandon the legacy of Kemal Ataturk. Turkey is less and less like a secular republic, especially in matters of foreign policy, where claims on the territory of neighboring states and new spheres of influence are the mainstream of Turkish diplomacy. Turkey’s claims are directed to the former territories of the Ottoman Empire, which in the neo-Ottoman paradigm are “temporarily lost territories”. This leads to the rhetoric of “restoring historical justice” and “restoring Turkey’s true role.”Erdogan’s successes in Syria, Libya, Iraq, and now in Karabakh serve not only the military-political and economic interests of Turkey, but also help to construct a new quasi-imperial myth, where Turkey’s military victories serve both as confirmation of Erdogan’s righteousness and as a guarantee of the continuation of the existing one. a course that stipulates the advancement of all new and new claims on the territory and spheres of influence within the borders of the former Ottoman Empire. Underestimating this ideologization of Turkish foreign policy seems to be very dangerous. Erdogan was one of the first to realize that the old world order is collapsing before our eyes and a unique window of opportunity appears when borders and spheres of influence are redrawn by the right of force, and not by political treaties, which now cost no more than the paper on which they were signed. Therefore, he used and will use both the weakening of the role of the United States and the general degradation of the entire system of international law. To justify his actions, he will no longer hesitate to use neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic rhetoric. And there will be more of it in the future. And this will not only be rhetoric.

Q: Why does Russia continue to cooperate with Turkey, despite the obvious conflicts in Syria, Libya and now in Karabakh?

A: As the Russian Foreign Ministry has already stated and as Putin recently stated, the Russian Federation and Turkey have various disagreements, but they are nevertheless resolved within the framework of mutually beneficial cooperation, which continues, despite the stories with the Russian Su-24 shot down by the Turks in 2015 or destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces in Idlib by a Turkish company in 2020. You can also recall the participation of Russian and Turkish PMCs, as well as military advisers in the Libyan war on the side of LNA Haftar and Libyan PNS Sarraj, respectively. The parties are well aware that there is no real friendship or alliance, there are mutual benefits from this cooperation, which so far outweigh the existing contradictions in various theaters of operations, where one can often see open force competition that does not go beyond a set of various hybrid actions that allow avoiding direct and long conflict of regular troops among themselves. Once the costs of controversy outweigh the benefits of collaboration, it will cease. But so far, the parties prefer to flirt with clashes in Syria, Libya or Karabakh, without canceling the existing partnership. The strategic benefits of the parties are clear enough: for Turkey, partnership with the Russian Federation makes it possible not to be left alone with the US and the EU, buy modern weapons, get its own nuclear power plant, etc. Erdogan is not shy about saying that Turkey will continue to pursue a multi-vector policy, where Russia is one of the poles of this multi-vector world.

Russia is quite satisfied with this course, since it is aimed at dismantling the late Washington world order, where there should have been only one center of power. Erdogan is destroying this system with his opportunistic policies. In addition, he actively undermines the unity of NATO and enters into a clinch with the “allies” in the alliance, primarily with Greece and France. For the Russian Federation, this course of Erdogan is objectively beneficial, since Turkey is actually accelerating the collapse of the previous system of world order. It can also be noted that the deals between the Russian Federation and Turkey in Syria made it possible to torpedo the American project of separating the “independent” Kurdistan from Syria. On the other hand, Russia, getting involved in the Middle East conflicts, where it, like Turkey, fills the vacuum of power, increasingly clashes with Turkey in the struggle for new spheres of influence, which leads to conflicts and tensions that it still keeps under control. Of course, if Russia did not send troops to Syria, did not expand its military-political presence in northeast and central Africa, there would be less friction in relations with Turkey. But, on the other hand, the presence of strong positions in the Middle East allows the Russian Federation to balance its relations with Turkey, because Ankara has to take into account Moscow’s position on a number of issues and even concede in certain issues. The Karabakh history to some extent shows that Turkey was not very happy with this state of affairs,and she did not miss the opportunity to get into the traditional Russian sphere of influence in the Transcaucasus. This once again shows that relations within the Russian-Turkish partnership are competitive and contain the potential for further conflicts already in the post-Karabakh period.

Q: Could this affect the Ukrainian direction of Russian policy?

A: Turkey perfectly understands the difficulties of Russia in this area and periodically reminds Russia of this, playing the map of arms supplies to Ukraine, which, for example, resulted in a recent contract for the joint production of UAVs of the Bayraktar TB-2 type that can be used in the course of hostilities in Donbas, including taking into account the experience of the Karabakh war, where underestimating the role of modern UAVs cost the Armenian army dearly. In addition, Turkey is quite consistently pedaling the theme of the Crimean Tatars, primarily associated with the Dzhemilev and Chubarov Mejlis banned in the Russian Federation. With regard to the Tatars, Turkey quite openly positions itself as the patron saint of “offended Muslims”, which is articulated at various conferences and events in Turkey itself, as well as in the statements of Turkish representatives visiting Ukraine. In recent years, this has been supplemented by rhetoric associated with the exaggeration of the topic of revising the Yasi Treaty, according to which the Ottoman Empire, following the war of 1787-1791. abandoned the Northern Black Sea region and Crimea. This is complemented by Erdogan’s periodic statements that “Crimea is Ukraine.” Of course, the Russian Federation also does not recognize the Turkish Republic in Northern Cyprus, but unlike Ankara,Moscow does not make this an occasion for periodic demonstrative statements. Erdogan periodically inserts this hairpin, especially after friction with Russia in Libya or Syria is resolved against him. By this he shows that relations between the Russian Federation and Turkey are not tied to any one specific theater of operations, and the game is played on a large number of boards. In this regard, it would be naive to expect that Turkey will somehow change its behavior in relation to Ukraine and Crimea.

It seems that the Russian Federation should take into account that in the next few years Turkey will be more actively engaged not only in economic projects in the Black Sea or digging a new canal parallel to the Bosphorus, but also to increase its involvement in Ukrainian affairs, which may have a certain impact on both the situation with Crimea , and the war in the Donbass. Strengthening the Black Sea Fleet and the RF Armed Forces grouping in Crimea, in the medium term, will be associated not only with protecting Crimea from claims from Ukraine, but also balancing the growth of Turkish military capabilities in the Black Sea. The issue of strengthening the forces and means of air defense and electronic warfare deployed on the territory of the LPR and DPR, as well as at the border with Ukraine in the area of ​​responsibility of the Southern Military District, is also relevant. In general, it is important to remember that Turkey is not a friend or an ally. This is a situational companion at this historical stage. And as long as it benefits Russia, the partnership with Erdogan will continue. But sooner or later, the historical paths will diverge again due to the fact that the road that Erdogan is trying to follow leads, first of all, to conflicts and wars, including on the borders of the Russian Federation. And the benefits of deals with Erdogan will not always outweigh the consequences of his military-political adventures.

ANNA-News censored on YouTube
Colonel Cassad, Nov 20, 21:51

While the State Duma was just going to discuss the possibility of imposing fines for blocking Russian media, on YouTube they once again demolished the ANNA-News account along with all the videos, with all the recent videos and stories from Karabakh. This is not the first time that they simply delete their channel along with all its content in this way, in fact, removing unique reports and chronicles from the zones of various conflicts. This comment from ANNA-News:

Against the background of the introduction of a bill to the State Duma of the Russian Federation aimed at suppressing censorship by foreign Internet companies in relation to the Russian media, the corporate monster Google continues to directly censor our YouTube channels. Today, once again, without explaining the reasons, referring to “violation of the Terms of Use”, 2 more of our channels were attacked, followed by blocking. Let’s note an interesting detail of the new US censorship attack brought against us by YouTube: “Keep in mind that until your channel is restored, you are prohibited from using other YouTube accounts or creating new ones.” It turns out that Google simply prohibits ANNA-News from using this service. Suddenly! It should be noted that quite recently Roskomnadzor stated: “If a restriction of access to information by the Russian media is revealed, the owners of a foreign Internet resource will be recognized as a violator. On the basis of such a decision, the Internet resource is entered in the register of violators, and a notification is sent to the owner with a request to stop the violation. If the requirement is not met, a restriction of access to the Internet resource may be introduced.” We sincerely hope that the practice of direct censorship of Internet resources will finally be stopped. Nevertheless, we ourselves are not wrong. In the near future, new channels of our agency will be launched, links to which we will publish later. Stay with us! Peace to your home!

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