colonel cassad for monday nov 23

The lady is President Aliyev’s wife Mehriban Aliyeva – RB

Aliyev in Agdam
Colonel Cassad, Nov 23, 21:33

Aliyev arrived in Agdam, which was recently occupied by the Azerbaijani army.

Explosion in Madagiz
Colonel Cassad, Nov 23, 19:45

The first losses were suffered by our peacekeepers in Karabakh. As a result of a mine explosion in Madagiz, a Russian peacekeeping officer was wounded. He has already been taken to a hospital in Baku and will live. Also 4 employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Karabakh were injured. In addition, the explosion killed the deputy commander of the Azerbaijani corps, Colonel Samidli Babek Matlab. A mine explosion occurred during the search for those killed during the war.

Azerbaijani UAVs in the Karabakh war
Colonel Cassad, Nov 23, 11:50

A small overview of the types of UAVs used by Azerbaijan in the Karabakh war.

Position of the Russian Federation on Karabakh
Colonel Cassad, Nov 23, 10:38

Putin yesterday briefly outlined the current diplomatic position of the Russian Federation on Karabakh.

  1. Karabakh and the adjacent regions are part of Azerbaijan, because Armenia did not recognize the NKR and its sovereignty over these territories. Since no one, including Armenia, recognized Karabakh, then there is nothing to argue about.
  2. Within the framework of Russia’s obligations under the CSTO, Russia was not obliged to do anything in Karabakh, which according to the documents is a part of Azerbaijan. The obligations of the Russian Federation apply only to Armenia itself.
  3. Since no one attacked the territory of Armenia, Russia had no reason to take part in hostilities on its side in Karabakh.
  4. Armenia during the Karabakh war received all the necessary assistance within the framework of Russian obligations.

In general, there is a slight deceit in point #3, since during the hostilities Azerbaijan struck strikes on the territory of Armenia, destroying at least 1 “Elbrus” missile system and 1 S-300 complex on the territory of Armenia. So formally, there were strikes on the territory of the Russian ally in the CSTO. But taking into account the fact that Armenia itself did not request the use of the CSTO mechanisms to involve Russia in the war on these occasions, it can be assumed that Yerevan itself did not consider them sufficient to change Russia’s position. Moreover, even during the war, Pashinyan himself stated that in the current circumstances Russia is providing Armenia with the necessary support, which most likely boiled down to the operation of modern electronic warfare systems (like the aforementioned Krasukha-4, Pole-21E, etc.) , providing technical intelligence data, etc. events.

As for the rest, if Armenia wanted a different position of Russia, it of course should have recognized the NKR long before all this, openly deploy its regular troops there and seek to extend the CSTO defense mechanisms to them. But none of this was done, and only now, already post factum, Armenia hopes that France will recognize Karabakh, which will open up the option of recognition for Armenia itself. Of course, in such conditions the Russian Federation will not run ahead of the steam locomotive in its striving to be greater Armenia than Armenia itself.

At the same time, if Armenia did not want to follow this path, it could choose the path of agreements according to the 5 + 2 formula, which was adopted in Kazan back in 2012. According to it, Armenia could postpone the issue of the status of Karabakh for decades, get the same Lachin corridor and, if you look at the results of the current war, retain Shusha and Hadrut for itself. As a result, the third option was chosen, which led Armenia to a military disaster. And even in the conditions of the growing military defeat, Armenia missed the chance to accept a worsened version of the Kazan formula in early October, which would have retained a slightly larger piece of Karabakh proper and, most importantly, Shusha. That is, even here the Armenian leadership found an opportunity to choose the worst possible scenario. It is up to the Armenians themselves to decide whether this is stupidity or treason.

The Russian Federation solved other tasks in this war: preserving the Transcaucasian arbitration (which was achieved), maintaining its military presence in the region (the task was completed and overfulfilled), preventing Turkey from entering the region (problems arose: de jure, Turkey was not allowed to be an arbitrator, but de facto Turkey has officially settled in Azerbaijan for at least a year and is likely to stay there for a long time). Along the way, in Armenia itself, the Pashinyan regime was discredited (mainly by his own works) and the prerequisites for the emergence of a more adequate regime there (but this is not certain) after the early parliamentary elections. The conflict itself was again transferred to a frozen state and actually postponed for at least 5 years, although Azerbaijan is trying to assure everyone that everything is over.

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