you will burn

Biden Administration’s ‘New’ Foreign Policy Is The ‘More Of The Same’ Old One
Moon of Alabama, Jan 20 2021

Today a new US administration will come in. On foreign policy issues it will be just as disappointing as the leaving one. US foreign policy is dictated by ingrained interests. The mechanisms of policy making in Washington DC guarantee that it is always a continuity, and that any changes to it are slow and will only be minor. The Trump administration were hated by the woke ‘libruls’ and the media for their style, not for what they were or were not doing. Biden, who has been warmongering in the Senate for decades, is bringing no change to the menu. His foreign policy marketing team will only change the package color of the same old product the Trump team has sold. The confirmation hearing of Biden’s incoming Sec State Anthony Blinken and of the incoming DNI Avril Haines give some hints towards these ‘new’ policies. The Iranian parliament has ordered the government to end some IAEA inspections and to increase the enrichment level of Uranium starting in mid February unless the Biden administration immediately removes the sanctions on Iran and returns to the nuclear deal. The Biden administration is likely to ignore this opportunity:

Blinken pledged to consult with Israel, Gulf allies and Congress when seeking “a longer and stronger” agreement to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions. During his Senate confirmation hearing Tuesday, Blinken said the incoming administration would “engage on the takeoff, not just the landing” with allies and partners before taking steps to rejoin the landmark nuclear agreement. Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “Biden is committed to the proposition that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon. Iran with a nuclear weapon or the threshold capacity to build one is an Iran that would act with potentially greater impunity than it already is.” If Iran returns to strict compliance under the nuclear pact, Biden has said he will reenter the multilateral pact as a starting point for follow-on negotiations to “tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints” and address Iran’s missile program. Blinken said Tuesday that “we are a long way from there,” adding that the administration would need to first ensure Iran is making good on its obligations.

Iran does not want nuclear weapons. It wants its rights and respect. It is the US which has broken the deal. Iran has responded to that by expanding its capabilities beyond some of the limits of the deal. This is reversible but only if the US acts first and at a reasonable speed. Lengthy talks with allies and Congress will prevent that from happening. Haines seems to share that analysis:

Republicans questioned Haines on her views about China and Iran, including the Obama administration’s Iran nuclear deal that Trump pulled back from. Haines said that while the incoming Biden administration has indicated that it would come back to the table with Iran if Tehran came back into compliance, she noted: “Frankly, we’re a long way from that.”

This summer the people of Iran will elect a new government, likely a conservative one. It will be even less willing to make additional concessions to the US than the current Rouhani government. The conflict will thus fester. There will also be no policy changes towards Tehran’s allies. The Biden administration will not rescind but only ‘review’ the terrorist designation of the Houthi in Yemen even as it is causing a famine:

Blinken’s testimony came the same day controversial terrorism designations against the Houthi movement in Yemen took effect. The UN and humanitarian organizations have warned that the rebels’ blacklisting, which was first announced by Pompeo last week, could hamper much-needed aid operations in the war-ravaged country. Blinken said he is concerned that the labeling won’t bring the Houthis to the negotiating table as intended, adding that the Biden administration will review the terrorism designation “immediately” upon taking office.

While Trump tried but failed to remove all US troops from Afghanistan, the Biden administration is likely to end his peace deal with the Taliban and to reengage in the futile attempt to keep the ‘western’ aligned proxy government in Kabul in office. This will require more US troops and a further extension of that war. On Syria, Turkey and Iraq, Biden’s policy will continue to be regime change and is likely to intensify. Biden has hired Brett McGurk, who had left the Trump administration in protest when Trump ordered the withdrawal of troops from Syria:

Biden nominated Brett McGurk, an outspoken advocate of American military presence in Syria and staunch detractor of the Turkish government, as Middle East coordinator on the NSC. McGurk, a veteran of the national security establishment who served in various capacities under successive Democrat and Republican administrations, has frequently criticised the Turkish government over its role in Syria and broader regional policies. McGurk quit his role as the US envoy to the international coalition to combat Daesh late in 2018 over Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from northern Syria.

There will be absolutely no change in policy towards Israel:

The Biden administration will keep the US embassy in Israel in Jerusalem, Blinken affirmed at his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday. “Do you agree that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and do you commit that the United States will keep our embassy in Jerusalem?” asked Cruz. Blinken responded: “Yes and Yes. The only way to ensure Israel’s future as a Jewish, democratic state and to give the Palestinians a state to which they are entitled is through the so-called two-state solution. I think realistically, it’s hard to see near-term prospects for moving forward on that. What would be important is to make sure that neither party takes steps that make the already difficult process even more challenging.”

US policy towards Europe will also not change. The Biden administration will press for more weapon sales to NATO members in Europe. While it may return to the New START treaty with Russia, it will otherwise uphold the hostility against that country. It will also continue the pressure against German energy policies:

The Biden administration will use every persuasive tool to stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and will work to convince European partners not to move forward with it, Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that held a confirmation hearing on Tuesday. He said Biden’s strong conviction was that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a “bad idea” and that the administration would use “every persuasive tool” to convince partners, including Germany, to discard the project.

Hostility against China will likewise persist:

Blinken gave the Trump administration credit for several pillars of its foreign policy, including taking a more aggressive approach to China, which he agreed had misled the world on the spread of the coronavirus and committed genocide against Uighur Muslims and other ethnic minorities. Haines said: “China is a challenge to our security, to our prosperity, to our values across a range of issues and I do support an aggressive stance. That is the place we are now, and one that is more assertive than where we had been in the Obama-Biden administration.”

Biden will double down on Trump’s failed Venezuela policy:

The Biden administration will continue to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country’s president, Blinken said on Tuesday. Blinken told members of the US Senate that Biden would seek to “more effectively target” sanctions on the country, which aim to oust President Nicolas Maduro, who retains control of the country. Blinken said the new administration would look at more humanitarian assistance to the country.

The policies towards other ‘bad’ states, Cuba, Bolivia and North Korea, will also continue to be hostile. The anti-Trump media will sell the foreign policies of the Biden administration as outlined above as fresh and rational approaches even when the do not differ at all from the foreign policies the Trump administration has persued. While Trump had continued the wars the US waged when he came into office he did not start any new ones. Since Joe Biden first entered the Senate 47 years ago he has cheered on every war the US has since waged. It would be astonishing to find four years from now that he did not start any new ones.

One Comment

  1. Posted January 20, 2021 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    EXACTLY. (…”Nothing changes on New Year´s Day”…)

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