captain obvious to the rescue

Why The US Might Want War In Ukraine
Moon of Alabama, Apr 9 2021

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Yesterday CNN said that the US is considering sending warships to the Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. That the US is ‘considering’ this is however disinformation:

The US has notified Turkey that it intends to deploy two warships to the Black Sea amid rising tensions with Russia, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said on Friday. Washington made the notification just over two weeks ago, as required under the Montreux Convention on passage through the Straits. The warships will stay in the Black Sea until May 5. A source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry said: “One US warship will enter on Apr 14, and another on Apr 15. They will leave on May 4 and May 5, respectively.”

The tensions in the Ukraine have built up after the Ukraine transferred heavy forces to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, raised Nazi flags and made a lot of noise about reconquering the renegade provinces as well as Crimea. Russia has also started some movement of troops and equipment towards its western border. For now these units are just training and not in a position to attack:

Although the US does not see the amassing of Russian forces as posturing for an offensive action, the official told CNN: “If something changes, we will be ready to respond.” Their current assessment is that the Russians are conducting training and exercises, and intelligence has not indicated military orders for further action.

A few weeks ago we explained why Zelensky is under pressure to start a war. The country is bankrupt and in a constitutional crisis. On top of that:

Polling numbers for Zelensky have sharply declined. Right-wing city councils call on Zelensky to outlaw the largest opposition party. Meanwhile the pandemic puts a record number of people into hospitals, while a meager vaccination campaign is failing. A war against the eastern separatists could be a Hail Mary attempt by Zelensky to regain some national and international support. But nothing will happen on the front-line without the consent or even encouragement of Washington DC. The Biden administration is filled with the same delusional people who managed the 2014 coup in Kiev. They may believe that the NATO training the Ukrainian army received and the weapons the US delivered are sufficient to defeat the separatists. But the state of the Ukrainian military is worse than one might think, and the separatists will have Russia’s full backing. There is no question who would win in such a fight.

Russia has since made its position clear:

Russia will be forced to protect the residents of Donbass if Ukraine launches full-scale hostilities against the region. That’s according to Dmitry Kozak, President Vladimir Putin’s deputy chief of staff, who is himself Ukrainian.

Russia is making such noise to deter Zelensky from any stupid moves. It is however not clear if this will deter Washington DC from ordering Zelensky to attack. The Ukrainian president recently was in Qatar to ask for money. He will soon (again) be in Istanbul to request more drones, and likely also ‘Syrian rebels’ to be used as cannon fodder in the opening of a war. The weather is not yet optimal to launch an attack. The grounds are still soggy and would hinder heavy weapon movements. The chance for war will increase towards the beginning of May. But all depends on Washington. Will the Biden administration push Zelensky towards a war that would certainly end with the Ukraine’s defeat and dissolution? Why would it do so? Andrei Martyanov suggests a US geostrategic motive behind this:

To convince those 447m EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine and if it will end up with utter destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and likely of Ukrainian statehood, and it will if Russia really decides so, then so be it. Americans never really cared how many aborigines die, as long as it works for the US bottom line. The American condition is deteriorating steadily because not only the US increasingly has very little of substance of high-value-added to sell to the world, but the economic and military monster of Eurasia removes the US from its self-proclaimed status of global hegemon, grossly exaggerated to start with, to the status of one of a few big shots on the planet, at best. At worst, the US is removed from Eurasia as a viable competitor and is relegated to a status of a regional power, still powerful relative to its continental neighbors but not having a shot at this second number of 4.67b (Asians). This is a big chunk of population and customers. Now imagine if the US loses EU. Suddenly 4.67b become 4.67b + 447m = 5.117b, 65% of Earth’s population. It is a huge majority of world’s population and, most importantly, a population much of which can pay for goods, unlike the gigantic population of Africa. Moreover, this population is concentrated within a single continental mass which is insulated from the US by two oceans. The US cannot allow this consolidation of the market to happen and Washington’s thinking is that the loss of Europe is tantamount to capitulation. So the US must hold on to the EU, or whatever it will become once EU inevitably collapses, and NATO remains the only tool to drive the European weaklings into submission. Making Russia obliterate the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a perfect way to scare the Europeans into abandoning any attempts to economically compete with the US and deny them access to Russia’s energy.

Could that really be the US strategy? If so it is rather short-term thinking. How long would the new situation of Europe as a US protectorate hold? Five years? A decade? Moreover, as a strategy it is rather poorly thought-out. I have yet to detect any serious thought behind most US policies. Then again, the neocons in the Biden administration like Victoria Nuland, who is nominated as USS for Political Affairs, are not known for long-term strategic thinking but for ruthless activism. They might want to create chaos in Europe without giving much thought to the aftermath.

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