colonel cassad

Zelensky was forced to shut up and postponed to August
Colonel Cassad, Jul 21 2021

All spring, Ukraine sought Zelensky’s meeting with Biden before Biden and Putin’s negotiations in Geneva. Along the way, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine almost every week yelled that “it is impossible to discuss Ukraine without Ukraine”. As it turned out, that’s the only way to do with Ukraine. The White House was freezing on this occasion and eventually Zelensky was allocated a small window for July. Yesterday, it became known that Washington demanded that Ukraine shut up and not get involved in the discussion of the issues of “North Stream 2” to its big uncles. And today the negotiations with Zelensky have been postponed to Aug 30. In general, Zelensky clearly does not enjoy the trust of “sleepy Joe” personally. It’s been demonstratively dynamite once again. It’s like it’s really. Avakov wasn’t cooked to replace parsley. In respect of Nord Stream 2, the US and Germany agreed independently, without Ukraine. According to the US, Germany has committed itself to:

  1. To achieve sanctions against Russia if Russia “uses energy as a weapon against European countries” or “takes aggressive action against Ukraine.” The term is as vague as possible, but as we know, sanctions against Russia can be imposed on the most insignificant reasons, so for Russia this changes little. In fact, the US means that Nord Stream 2 will have to be accepted. It is not planned to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream 2 until its completion.
  2. Germany is obliged to seek Russia to extend its transit through Ukraine for another 10 years from 2024 to 2034. Apparently, this is the only way to find at least some money to amort the Ukrainian GTS. On the other hand, Germany’s obligations are not Russia’s obligations. The Russian Federation has obligations to Germany on this issue only until 2024. And then, it’s possible to bargain. In the medium term, the EU will have no other way but to bargain with the Russian Federation for the preservation of part of the transit through Ukraine. Neither Europe nor the United States want to refinance the Ukrainian GTS, so they are trying to hang it around Russia’s neck.
  3. Such demands once again emphasized Germany’s political dependence on the US, as a fully sovereign country would hardly tolerate such arm-twisting to save the face of the Biden administration, which had to show that it had done something about Nord Stream 2. Frankly speaking, Trump was more disturbing than Biden, who was sluggish enough to mimic resistance to the project, and then surrender in about the same way as he surrendered in Afghanistan. As a result, Germany discussed Ukraine with the US without Ukraine. And in the future, Germany will discuss Ukraine with Russia without Ukraine. In fact, this is the real place of the object of international relations.

After negotiations with the US, Merkel personally informed Putin about their results and discussed Nord Stream 2 and the Minsk Agreements (North Stream-2 will be completed, Minsk Agreements will not be implemented). Lavrov sarcastically said about Germany’s obligations “Know Germany is strong…” In the US, Ted Cruz is already mad:

If you want to know why Joe Biden is giving Putin a multi-billion dollar gift in the form of a Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline; (killing pipelines and jobs here at home), call the White House.

We will wait for more details about the deal between the US and Germany.

On the issue of resolving the conflict in Donbass
Boris Rozhin (Colonel Cassad), Analytical Service of Donbass, Jul 22 2021

The interview with Dmitry Kozak, curator of the Ukrainian direction, which made a lot of information noise, once again indicated that the awareness of objectively established problems of diplomatic settlement of the war in Donbass does not bring any qualitative changes in existing trends and break the deadlock. In a rather lengthy interview, Kozak once again confirmed that the parties, as before, retain different readings of the main points of the Minsk Agreements, while:

  1. Ukraine, declaring its commitment to the Minsk Agreements, will in fact profanate and sabotage their implementation. This is done by Zelensky and his entourage in the same style as in Poroshenko’s time, and Zelensky’s differences from Poroshenko are not too many. Ukraine does not withdraw from the Minsk Agreements just because of fears that it will lead to the partial lifting of sanctions against Russia by the European Union.
  2. Europe sees and understands all this perfectly, but takes a wicked position, also in words supporting the Minsk Agreements, but de facto supporting Ukraine’s actions aimed at their profanation. The fact that the Russian Foreign Ministry periodically points to this “duality” does not prevent Europe from continuing to take an outright hypocritical position, because double standards are quite typical of European politics.
  3. The DPR and LPR, as parties to the diplomatic settlement, are consciously excluded from the process, although this is enshrined in the Minsk Agreements. Moscow’s attempts to force Kiev to negotiate with the people’s republics of Donbass are emphasized by Kiev with the full support of this disregard by Washington and Brussels. A scenario where the Russian Federation is negotiating with the U.S. and the EU, and Ukraine is negotiating with the DPR and the LPR, which would reflect different levels of conflict in Ukraine, the U.S. does not want to allow in any form, trying to insist through Kiev puppets that Moscow should solve the problem of war with Ukraine, in fact agreeing with the the thesis that Russia is at war with Ukraine, although de facto on the territory of Ukraine there is a conflict between the US and the Russian Federation for influence on Ukraine, where the US acts by the hands of the Kiev regime, and the Russian Federation, by the hands of the DPR and LPR.
  4. Attempts to move the paragraphs of the Minsk Agreements in a more favorable order for Ukraine (putting the first number to surrender the border of the DPR and LPR with Russia to Ukraine) are blocked by Russia, which, as 6 years ago, proposes to act in the order of priority approved in 2015.
  5. The Normandy format, due to the “specifics” of the position of Europeans, can also serve as either a help or a substitute for the Minsk Agreements, remaining another diplomatic “placebo” that is unable to advance the settlement process, remaining more talkous in the style of “agree to negotiate further”. Actually, that’s why its participants have been in no hurry to gather lately, as there is nothing to talk about. The positions have long been marked, and they do not intersect.
  6. Zelensky did not live up to his expectations by actually deceiving his voters. Unlike Poroshenko, he was not called “the best choice of the Ukrainian people” in Moscow and there were no such long illusions about him. Already in the 2nd year of Zelensky’s presidency, it became clear even to ordinary people that he was just a puppet that continues the familiar course of maintaining a managed conflict at the cost of any costs paid by Ukraine. Therefore, it is not surprising that over the past year Moscow has already officially stated several times that there is nothing to talk to Zelensky about, despite Zelensky’s attempts to ask for negotiations with Putin. This, of course, has some difference from Poroshenko’s times, with whom they tried to negotiate through Ukrainian oligarchs.

Because of the above, a diplomatic settlement in Donbass is not expected, as the US will not abandon the scenario of a managed war in Donbass, which weakens both Russia and the EU. Therefore, the sluggish position war in Donbass will continue according to the “Karabakh scenario” with inevitable casualties and destruction. It will remain sluggish again due to the fact that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to liquidate the DPR and LPR will lead to the intervention of parts of the Southern Military District and the repetition of stories with boilers of 2014-2015. Ukraine has been warned several times in this regard, and as recent alert checks conducted near the borders with Ukraine have shown, the Russian Armed Forces may quickly increase the grouping in the immediate vicinity of the DPR and LPR, which serves as sufficient military insurance for the military and political survival of the republics. Russia, of course, has never recognized military assistance to the republics of Donbass, but those who are well acquainted with the structure of the armies of the people’s republics and the peculiarities of the “military trade” of 2014-2015 know very well that the armies of the DPR and LPR will not be left without military support. At the same time, the current state of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps leaves much to be desired in a number of moments, which again indicates the limited support provided by Russia. At the same time, it should not be forgotten that on the other side of the front line, military activities of the US and NATO are increasingly unfolding, which are increasing their military presence in Ukraine on a rotational basis, entrenching their influence in Ukraine. Of course, despite all official denials, Russia cannot but react to this activity, so it is not necessary to say that Russia will abandon the republics from a military point of view.

In diplomatic terms, Russia, as before, officially refuses to integrate the DPR and LPR into its composition, while de facto integration processes were both ongoing and ongoing, and issues with the distribution of passports (which were restrained artificially) serve the purpose of preparing a backup version, which can be implemented if a final decision is made to implement the Ossetian-Abkhaz scenario. The trigger of such a decision may, of course, be the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will be interpreted through the prism of genocide and the example of Srebrenica, which has already been officially announced. It is worth remembering that when recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia referred to the Kosovo precedent, among other things. In the case of Donbass, it was announced in advance that the pretext and reason for direct military intervention will be events that Moscow will treat as an analogue of Srebrenica. These announcements and warnings at the current stage transparently hint that an attempt to attack will lead to Ukraine to sad consequences.

With regard to the integration of Donbass with Ukraine under the Minsk Agreements or their hypothetical analogues, at the current stage they look absolutely incredible due to the course that the US conducts through Kiev puppets in Ukraine. In fact, there is a quasi-Nazi regime in Kiev, which pursues the most Russophobic policy built into the “Russian deterrence policy” pursued by the US. The surrender of Donbass to such a regime will mean not only the liquidation of the DPR and LPR, but also the refusal of any influence in Ukraine by the Russian Federation. In fact, Russia will thus comply with the requirements of Obama’s ultimatum. As can be seen from the official statements of the Kremlin and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, this option is not even considered, and the Kremlin still considers the option of integration as some kind of implementation of the “Bosnian scheme,” when a decentralized neutral Ukraine is formed, which does not enter anywhere, and where the DPR and LPR serve as a guarantee that Ukraine will not enter anywhere in the future. This goal lies on the surface, and in this form the DPR and LPR in Nazi Ukraine, of course, will not appear in any way. The prerequisites for changing the current exchange rate in Ukraine are not yet expected due to the fact that the US is not ready to abandon the use of Ukraine against Russia.

Of course, there is a long-discussed hypothetical scenario where the US makes some concessions to Russia in the interests of the fight against China as the main threat to American hegemony. That’s why there were expectations from Biden and Putin’s negotiations in Geneva. But due to the mood of the American establishment, the US is unable to give up the Cold War against Russia in principle for both ideological and financial reasons, as this Cold War has already tied too many interests of the American military-industrial complex and financial capital. Therefore, the US, of course, does not intend to give up Ukraine for nothing, which not so long ago was not difficult to see by the example of NATO’s provocations in the Black Sea and the use of Ukraine’s territory for numerous military exercises with a clear anti-Russian orientation. In summary, Kozak’s interview, where he once again described the obvious reasons why the diplomatic settlement is stalling, but did not offer any clear ways to break the impasse, except for a set of wishes, which in my opinion cannot reverse the current trends in the use of Ukraine by the US as an anti-Russian bridgehead and instrument. As an illustration of the above, yesterday the Kremlin specified that there are no plans to meet Zelensky. And also on Ukrainian topics from the accumulated record:

  1. How the Boeing was shot down: An interesting attempt to link numerous evidence of the presence of Ukrainian combat aircraft at the site of the death of the Malaysian Boeing with the version with the “Buk” (which does not explain the testimony of witnesses in any way).
  2. Zelensky waved “the law on indigenous peoples of Ukraine”, according to which there are no Russians. In fact, this is another reason why no progress is expected with the settlement under Zelensky.
  3. In Novomirgorod, the Hitlerites team took part in the streetball competition. After the scandal, the team was forced to change its name. It’s much harder to change the shit in your heads for something more useful.
  4. Two Nazis who tried to set fire to a local synagogue were released in Kherson. This is the norm.
  5. The Chinese Ambassador is writing a letter to Medvedchuk promising to continue contacting the CCP with OPZH and Medvedchuk personally. Zelensky’s attempts to flirt with China on the part hardly included such congratulations.

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