colonel cassad

Exercise “West. Interaction 2021”
Colonel Cassad, Aug 3 2021

The PLA announced the upcoming joint Russian-Chinese military exercises to be held on the territory of China. More than 10k military personnel from China and Russia will take part in the exercise. Exercises of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and China will be held in the first half of August on the territory of the Qing Tsing Tongshanya land forces training base of the Ningxia-Huei Autonomous Region of the PRC. During the exercise, Chinese servicemen will perform tasks in the west, and Russian servicemen in the east. More than 10k soldiers from the two countries will take part in the exercise. Armored vehicles, aviation and artillery will be involved. The exercise will be supervised jointly by the military contingents of the two countries. The exercises are held to strengthen and develop a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and China, deepen pragmatic cooperation between the countries’ defense ministries, as well as to demonstrate the determination to combat terrorism and readiness to jointly maintain stability and security in the region. The day before, at the Meeting of Defense Ministers of the SCO in Dushanbe, the Minister of Defense of the PRC Wei Fenghe invited his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu to the active phase of the joint exercise “West. Interaction 2021.” The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation accepted the invitation, saying:

I hope our next meeting will be in China. Therefore, I am pleased to accept your invitation to participate in the exercises that will be held on the territory of the PRC.

In addition, large-scale exercise “West 2021” on the territory of Belarus will start in September. Hysterics in Europe are already preparing to yell about the preparation of the offensive against Poland and Lithuania. The only offensive that will take place is the offensive of migrants. Belarus has opened several new flights from Iraq, so soon the Baltic limitrophes will have replenishment.

Lithuania continues to propose no more sanctions against Belarus if Lukashenko stops “migration aggression.” Lukashenko is scolded at the BBC for “sudden hybrid attack on Lithuania.”

People arriving in Lithuania have nowhere to settle, nothing to feed and no one to protect. The Lithuanian authorities call them a “tool of hybrid aggression” and do everything to show Lukashenko, the world and smugglers that Lithuania is the worst place to enter the EU.

Anyway, a cute picture of one of the European curs screaming “And what about me?!” I believe that Lukashenko should urgently announce the opening of new flights Kabul-Minsk and Kandahar-Minsk for those wishing to evacuate to Europe. There won’t be a break from those who want to get away.

PS. Plus, joint exercises of the Russian Federation with Uzbekistan have also started. The exercises are a reaction to what is happening in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan is worried, so its interest in military cooperation of the Russian Federation has increased dramatically.

As previously noted, the strengthening of the Taliban in Afghanistan not only creates various problems, but also creates various opportunities to strengthen the military and political influence of the Russian Federation in Central Asia, as after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, interest in military cooperation with the Russian Federation will obviously increase, although the US is trying to catch on Central Asia by negotiating with local republics for the possibility of creating a military base. Russia and China are certainly not interested in repeating the situation from the “zero” with the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, work is probably already underway to prevent Americans from jumping to another country and staying in the region.

Tool Of Limited Use
Colonel Cassad, Aug 2 2021
Especially for Analytical Service of Donbass

As the 7th anniversary approached of the battles for Shakhtarsk and Krasny Raiyy, and the failure of the attempt to surround Donetsk Armed Forces of Ukraine in the summer of 2014, another attempt to somehow revive the “Steinmeier formula” (which Ukraine de facto does not recognize), “negotiations in the Minsk subgroups” (Ukraine refuses to go to Minsk because of the coronavirus and Lukashenko), and “meetings in the Normandy format” (as there is nothing to discuss in general) have quite clearly stalled. While reports of dead and wounded from both sides are drawn almost daily from the front, statements on the topic of peace in Donbass, which traditionally rest on different readings of the text of “Minsk-2,” continue at the diplomatic level. It has become ridiculous. Gryzlov, representing Russia, said that it is possible to hold face-to-face negotiations as early as Aug 26, but there is a possibility that even in these terms negotiations will not be possible. And this is despite the fact that such negotiations guarantee nothing at all, except that there was a meeting of delegations.

It is quite understandable that even such an obvious question as the exchange of prisoners hung in the air, although practice has shown that this is perhaps the only question where at least some practical effect is possible. They have certainly not all been exchanged, in six and a half years. Of course, Ukraine is not going to comply with Russia’s demands to adopt the “Donbass Status Law” (as prescribed by Minsk-2), as well as “to implement Steinmeier’s formula.” Accordingly, all chatter about the “withdrawal from the border of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” has no practical meaning and is aimed only at imitating negotiation efforts. Zelensky has long scored on any promises to voters, and the US is all the more uninterested in the managed conflict in Donbass to stop.

In addition, the completion of Nord Stream 2 has once again exposed the fully puppet character of the Kiev authorities. Now you can hear the ongoing multi-week hysteria on the threat of Nord Stream 2 to the security of Ukraine, where Kiev is trying to attract attention, after the US and Germany solved their problems in this regard, putting the Kiev regime in front of the fait accompli of refusing to block the completion of Nord Stream 2.

In the current realities, periodic aggravation in Donbass (in the Petrovsky or Zaitsevo area) serve the purpose not only of maintaining a managed conflict in the interests of the United States, but also to maintain the necessary level of bloodletting, citing which any diplomatic steps to resolve can be blocked. And this line is fully shared by the U.S., which insists on “normalizing the security situation” and “ceasefire” to resume negotiations, i.e. they are playing the same game as before. The replacement of the talking heads who represent Ukraine – whether Immortal, Kuchma, Kravchuk or Arestovich – does not fundamentally change anything – their task was, is and remains an imitation of the negotiation process. There’s simply no other meaning in their activities.

Of course, Kiev is well aware that in the long term the remaining volume of Russian gas transit (which is provided through the deal between Moscow and Berlin) will reduce Ukraine’s ability to manipulate gas supplies for Europe, which is not difficult to notice on demand to maintain the volume of transit of Russian gas after 2024, which, from the point of view of Moscow, should be regulated on “market grounds”, i.e. the price will be formed at the time of conclusion of the hypothetical contract, without any discounts and concessions.

At the same time, Russia may offer an existing volume of gas under the current agreement, but on other terms, offering to “either take or not take” so that Ukraine’s refusal actually exempts the Russian Federation from its obligations to Germany. Hence the attacks of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on Merkel and the German government for “not taking into account Ukraine’s interests.” Hence the hopes that after Merkel’s departure in the autumn of 2021, the potential winner in the race for the post of Chancellor will not only guarantee the existing contract until 2024, but also lobby for a profitable contract for Ukraine after 2024, threatening Russia with sanctions. The CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet has already made statements threatening Russia. The candidate from the “Greens” Annalena Baerbock is in favor of closing the project as part of the “fight against Russian influence.”

But it should be understood that the main beneficiary of the project is large German capital, which is primarily interested in the money that has already been invested in Nord Stream 2 and related projects. And they are not ready to deploy politics in the direction desired by Washington and Kiev in Berlin (either under Trump or Biden), as Biden found out experimentally when he realized that further pressure on Berlin would only lead to a deterioration of relations with Germany, which would have benefited only Russia. The costs of further pressure were too high, so today the Biden administration is actually forced to fight back accusations by Republicans and Trumpists of being soft on Russia.

Of course, when Ukraine demands increased pressure on Nord Stream 2, it risks both Biden’s deal with Merkel and US relations with Germany. That’s why Ukraine is so undiplomatically told to shut up, because the managed war in Donbass is one thing, and the interests of the US in relations with Germany are quite another. And as this story shows, when it comes to issues of principle for the US, Ukraine can be neglected very easily, which, of course, does not mean that the US will refuse to use Ukraine the way it already uses it. Ukraine is a tool of limited use within this logic. Therefore, in the current realities we will continue to see an imitation of the peace process and the continuation of the positional war in Donbass. Zelensky himself will continue to try to become more like Poroshenko than Poroshenko himself. This is easy to explain given his need to maintain the course of maintaining the conflict managed since 2014. Zelensky and his entourage can either adjust to this course or be replaced by more compliant puppets who will not talk about “peace in Donbass,” but will continue to glorify collaborationism, institutionalization of neo-Nazism, de-Russification, de-Sovietization, forced Ukrainianization and deindustrialization of Ukraine.

Medal for the “30th anniversary of Ukraine” showing Bandera and Shukhevich.

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