anonymous remarks on pepe escobar’s caucasus article

The article by Pepe Escobar is here. Below are two comments at The Saker, via Xymphora:

Baku accuses Tehran of blindly supporting Armenia. Yes, the ghosts of the recent Karabakh war are all over the place.

This is just more nonsense from Baku. Iran did not support Armenia in the Karabakh war, which in my opinion, was a mistake. And Iran is paying for that mistake today.

In an optimal scenario, Baku can even help Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman to connect to Georgian ports in the Black Sea.

You seem to have missed the news about Iran’s Persian Gulf to Black Sea road, which is set to go through Armenia, and is nearly complete, with only 15kms left to go. Also, you seem to be overestimating the Republic of Baku and its power and importance.

But then one important 130km stretch from Astara to Rasht, which is on the southern shore of the Caspian and is close to the Iranian–Azeri border, has not been built. The reason? Trump-era sanctions.

Sanctions have nothing to do with Iran’s ability to construct 130kms of railroad. You are either seriously underestimating Iran, or there is something else going on here.

That’s a graphic example of how much, in real-life practical terms, rides on a successful conclusion of the JCPOA talks in Vienna.

Ah, so that’s what’s going on. You are now a proponent of the JCPOA. I hate to break it to you, but at this point it doesn’t seem like that deal will ever be revived, but hey, who knows, anything could happen.

…which makes Tehran’s official position of supporting Azerbaijani over Armenian claims all the more confusing. It is essential to remember that even in the Karabakh crisis in the early 1990s, Tehran recognized Nagorno‑Karabakh and the regions surrounding it as integral parts of Azerbaijan.

Indeed, I for one am confused by Tehran’s decision to repeatedly support Baku in this issue. But what is more surprising is the statement which you quote from Baku about Iranian blind support for Armenia.

This, in theory, could become a sort of Turkish Silk Road bypassing Iran – with the ominous possibility of also being used as a rat line to export Takfiris from Idlib all the way to Afghanistan.

That is exactly the plan: to cut off Iran from Armenia, which will then make Azerbaijan as important as you are currently making them out to be. But as things stand right now, and with the Gilan railway incomplete and in limbo because of ‘sanctions,’ Iran is the keystone in the North-South corridor, not Azerbaijan. Unless the path will go across the Caspian to Turkmenistan, and then south through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, which is preposterous. Currently, as Armenia enjoys a fully Zionist dominated government, Azerbaijan and Turkey could in theory take all of Armenia and annex it to Azerbaijan, and the Armenian government would probably do nothing. That is why Iran has made it clear that this time around, Armenia’s weakness will not be allowed to result in more land grabs by the Turks, and the border between Iran and Armenia is the red line, which if crossed, will be met with decisive action.

The fact, though, remains that Azerbaijan is geoeconomically bound to become a key crossroads of trans-regional connectivity as soon as Armenia unblocks the construction of these transport corridors.

What Baku is bound to become, remains to be seen. If Baku’ territories become a terrorist and Zionist hotbed, all that it is bound to become, is a pile of rubble.

Will diplomacy win in the South Caucasus? It must. The problem is both Baku and Tehran frame it in terms of exercising their sovereignty – and don’t seem particularly predisposed to offer concessions.

I feel like your overall tone betrays the fact that you are peeved, and more at Iran, for not choosing Eurasian integration over its national security. Baku is the one framing this in terms of sovereignty, ie. “we want to have relations with the Israelis, and that is our sovereign right, and it is nobody’s business.”

The Pakistan angle, floated by a few in hush-hush mode, is completely far-fetched. There’s no evidence Tehran would be supporting an anti-Taliban drive in Afghanistan just to undermine Pakistan’s ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

This is probably the first statement in this whole article, that I can get behind 100%. Iran has made no moves to hinder the Taliban. If anything, they have helped the Taliban quite a bit.

The Russia–China strategic partnership looks at the current South Caucasus juncture as unnecessary trouble, especially after the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. This badly hurts their complementary Eurasian integration strategies – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Greater Eurasian Partnership.

Look, can we all stop acting like cooperation with Israel is not bad? Iran is not the one bringing Israelis to the Caucasus region. When Azerbaijan attacked Artsakh, many in Iran saw it as an Israeli conspiracy which would open the door to Israelis coming into the region. Russia did not seem concerned about the Zionist aspect, as it never seems concerned about the Zionist aspect in anything, for some reason. If China and Russia have a problem, they should take it up with the idiot who needlessly brought the Israelis into the equation, ffs. Unnecessary trouble is the Zionist regime’s middle name. And any article that frames an issue which involves Zionist meddling, without calling out that malign meddling, completely misses the mark, in my opinion.

INSTC could, of course, go the trans-Caspian way and cut off Azerbaijan altogether.

INSTC could also go the Iran-Armenia-Georgia route, which is almost 100% complete as far as the roadwork is concerned. Funny that sanctions don’t stop Iran from building roads in the Caucasus, but they stop Iran from building railroad tracks in a completely flat region like Gilan.

The bottom line is that neither Moscow nor Beijing wants this to fester. There will be serious diplomatic moves ahead, as they both know the only ones to profit will be the usual NATO-centric suspects, and the losers will be all the players who are seriously invested in Eurasian integration.

Good. Moscow and Beijing should make Azerbaijan tell the Israelis to take a hike, and all will be well with the world. But to expect Iran to turn a blind eye to Zionist conspiracies on the Iranian border, for the sake of Eurasian integration, well, I wouldn’t hold my breath. We will see what we will see, but I have a feeling that the ruling family in Baku does not have a very bright future ahead, which seems to be the trend with anyone who goes up against Iran. The IRGC does not forget and it does not forgive. And it is not driven by nonsense like Eurasian integration, which is indeed nonsense compared to Iranian national security.

See Al Jazeera – “Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said Iran is after a ‘big jump in relations’ with Russia as he prepares to hold talks with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.” And also, Al Jazeera — “Iran’s new FM, in Moscow for talks, said Tehran ‘will not tolerate geopolitical change and map change in the Caucasus.’ Amirabdollahian, after touching down in Moscow on Tuesday, said the government of President Ebrahim Raisi is ready to quickly expand ties with Russia based on a foreign policy that seeks the same across the region.”

The new Iranian FM is a very sharp and astute fellow. He makes Javad Zarif look like a little turd, and he is with the pro-IRGC camp, as opposed to Zarif, who probably danced with joy when Soleimani was murdered. The situation with Azerbaijan is quite complex. It is a true demonstration of the Israeli art of creating complex crisis situations. But I think if anyone can solve this thing diplomatically, it is Amirabdollahian and Lavrov. I agree that Erdogan and Aliyev are both backed by the Zionists, but I have to give Putin credit where it is due; if Russia wasn’t in Syria, Iran would have had to fight a much more bold and aggressive Turkey, working together with Israel, and whoever else they could have gotten to join them, and who knows how that would have turned out? Russian presence in Syria is what made it possible for the IRGC and the Syrian Army to win the war. And the war has been won, mind you. Soleimani was murdered precisely because he won the war in Syria, even though the US and Israel thought it was impossible for them to lose. Turkey will leave Syria, this is almost certain. And the Israeli strikes against Syria are mostly for Israeli domestic consumption, and their damage to the Resistance is minimal. The Syrian Army has recently retaken Daraa, and they are now right next to the Golan Heights. Last week, terrorist positions in Idlib were struck very severely and extensively, by the Syrian Army, with massive rocket barrages. And Russia continues to conduct airstrikes against terrorist positions. It seems like they have the situation under control there.

The real crux of the issue here is the power of the Global Zionist Entity to corrupt politicians like Aliyev and Pashiniyan, and subvert and commandeer societies and governments which would otherwise be democratic, ie. the will of the native people would prevailing there, not the will of Israel. Even an independent dictator would be a better ruler for his own country, than a Zionist puppet politician. In Azerbaijan, as in Bahrain, the will of the majority is to not have anything to do with Israel, but the ruling dictatorial regimes there have official ties to the Zionist regime, where in the case of Bahrain, it is a very recent development, and calls by the Bahraini people to hold a referendum were completely ignored by the ruling family. When Anwar Sadat sold out to the Israelis, the Egyptian people were so upset, that they executed him revolutionary style. But alas, Egypt continues to have official relations with Israel. Billionaire Jews with power and influence in many countries are pulling the strings of these dictators in Azerbaijan, where Aliyev has been in power since 2003, in Bahrain, which also has a ruling dynasty, and in Egypt, where Sisi is the Zionist-installed dictator. Even half way across the world in the US or Canada or Australia, they have corrupt idiots in office, doing their bidding. So, it is really no surprise that politicians in small poor countries are afflicted with Global Zionism. The question here is not whether Iran should trade its national security for Eurasian integration. The real question is, what can Russia and China do to overcome tiny Azerbaijan and Armenia — backed by the Global Zionist Entity — to achieve their ambitions with INSTC, Eurasian integration, etc?

One Comment

  1. lobro
    Posted October 10, 2021 at 3:49 am | Permalink

    if i was allowed to oversee the strategy coordination for the Good Guys, this is what i would do:
    link up in a clandestine way with kurds, wait for edogan to alienate himself further from NATO (maybe also through stealth agreements with Greece-cyprus), provoke him into overplaying his hand by attacking armenia yet again, then have iran enter the war as selfless defender of orthodox christianity.
    Iran can beat turkeys if kurds get fully committed and even assad can help on the pretext of reconquista and “setting up security buffers”).
    The net outcome would squeeze turkey westward into asia minor while east and central anatolia goes to armenia, kurds and syria.
    Migrating turkeys flood west europe again, fine by me.

    And the belt + road initiative triumphs, antichrist gets his head kicked in.

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