colonel cassad

The largest invasion since WW2
Colonel Cassad, Jan 25 2022

Biden said that if Russia invades Ukraine, it will be the largest invasion since WW2, which will change the world. So, according to American estimates, we take 100k to 125k people that Russia can use in the Ukrainian direction. Let’s remember history.

  • US invasion of Vietnam. By 1968, the US had 543k personnel in Vietnam (excluding puppet troops);
  • Commissioning of Soviet troops into Czechoslovakia in 1968. 250k people (USSR + troops of the Warsaw Pact countries)
  • Operation Desert storm 1991. The US group and its satellites were about 800k people.
  • The US invasion of Afghanistan 2001-2021. About 162k people at the peak of the country’s occupation by US troops and their satellites (excluding puppet troops).
  • The US invasion of Iraq in 2003. By the beginning of the invasion, the forces of the US, Britain, Australia and Poland were about 196k personnel (excluding puppet troops).

If you want, you can also remember the Korean War. So even if the Russian Armed Forces really enter Ukraine, they may change the world, but will not even get into the top 3 incursions after WW2. In terms of number, this is somewhere at the level of the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan (100k to 110k people). And that’s if they come in at all, which is possible, but not necessarily. As stated today in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, no signs of installation of shock groups were found.

Sir! Croats are running into our rear!
Colonel Cassad, Jan 25 2022

President Milanović of Croatia was brought to the “Myrotvorets” after his mutiny. This Kremlin agent is so unbelted (распоясался) that:

  1. He stated that Croatia is not going to participate in any war in Ukraine and that Croatia has nothing to do with the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
  2. He stated that Croatia would recall every single soldier from the NATO consolidated forces if there was a threat of involving them in hostilities. 80 soldiers have already withdrawn from Poland just in case.
  3. He stated that Euromaidan is a coup that has nothing to do with democracy.
  4. He stated that Ukraine had no place in NATO and that Ukraine’s path to the EU gave no rights to Ukraine.
  5. He stated that Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries.

In general, such a Croatian Vice-Admiral Kai-Achim Shenbach at maximum. For which he was instantly enrolled in “Myrotvorets.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has already rolled a whole hysteria demanding an apology for the “wrong position.” Unlike the ill-fated German admiral, it is not possible to remove the President of Croatia (at least immediately and quickly), so the damage to “European unity” has already been done and it will be even more difficult to stop him than the antics of Shenbach, who was forced to publicly repent for his opinion. This story once again shows that some Europeans do not want to participate in American fraud in Ukraine at all, where they are trying their best to draw. But you shouldn’t overestimate this front. Anyway, Europeans will be driven to war against Russia, even if some of them try to desert, as Croats are now trying to do.

PS. Washington said today that it is not going to bring troops to Ukraine. Of course, the US is interested in a long-running war on the territory of Ukraine, where it could supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the longest possible military campaign that could deplete the Russian Federation. A direct collision will quickly reach the level of nuclear strike exchange. So far, we are waiting for a written response, after which certain events should follow, as receiving the paper will require Russia to make the next move.

The Mechanics of War
Boris Rozhin, Analytical Service of Donbass, Jan 25 2022 (also Colonel Cassad)

What scenario will events in Donbass develop? If we describe a possible scenario for unleashing a full-scale war in Donbass, the following points can be highlighted:

1. The concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the attached reinforcement forces, which are supplemented by NATO and PMC military, consistently deploying in central and eastern Ukraine, is being concentrated in advance.

2. The increasing threat against the DPR and LPR forces Russia to strengthen the grouping of the Russian Armed Forces on the border with the LDPR and Ukraine to guarantee the possibility of using the power option to prevent the elimination of the DPR and LPR in the style of Operation Storm.

3. The concentration of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is reported as “aggressive actions of Russia” and “intention to attack Ukraine as soon as possible,” while the date of “inevitable attack” is constantly shifted by 2-4 weeks as the information and propaganda campaign develops.

4. The information campaign is a justification for the open transfer of various weapons, including offensive ones, to Ukraine. The issue of supplying MANPADS to Ukraine has also been updated. The former political program about “lethal/non-lethal weapons” is no longer even bothered with.

5. In addition, NATO troops are being built up on Russia’s strategic borders, and already now the order of figures from hundreds of soldiers has increased to thousands, and in the future it has been announced to increase up to tens of thousands of people with various equipment. In fact, we are talking about the Cold War situation, when in Central Europe the dividing line was supported by large masses of troops on high or maximum alert, only now this line has left Germany for the border with Belarus and the territory of Ukraine.

6. At the borders with Russia, intelligence activities have been dramatically intensified using various reconnaissance aircraft of the United States and NATO countries, as well as various UAVs. Together with the data of the US satellite group, round-the-clock monitoring of the concentration and movement of large contingents of the Russian Armed Forces is carried out to have an idea of how and where they can act in the event of the beginning of the active phase of hostilities in Donbass.

7. Preparatory mobilization measures are being carried out on the territory of Ukraine for an intensive conflict with a large number of losses and a possible postponement of hostilities throughout the territory of eastern, central and southern Ukraine.

8. Even the imitation opposition is consistently cleaned up, which could prevent the course of unleashing intense hostilities. All opportunities for legal influence on public opinion in the direction of ending the war are consistently stopped.

9. Hardly anyone has illusions about the results of direct confrontation between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but the point is not to achieve purely military results. The probing of the front lines of the 1st and 2nd AK serves the purpose of constantly putting pressure on the tactical defense strip of the armies of the People’s Republics, as well as checking the thresholds of the Russian reaction to the increasing aggressiveness of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO.

10. Diplomatically, Russia is frightened by sanctions if it tries to intervene directly in the protection of the People’s Republics and involves troops on the territory of Ukraine (thus confirming that there are no Russian Armed Forces troops on the territory of Ukraine now).

As a result, the following can be assumed:

1. In Donbass, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are launching a limited offensive in order to occupy a large settlement. If the offensive is successful, Russia either helps the LDPR or does not help. If it does not help, then the thresholds of the reaction of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have not yet been reached, and the operation can be repeated. If it reacts and supports the LDPR by force, NATO is already entering the game. An alternative scenario may be a provocation, and not necessarily on the front line in Donbass, where it is expected in the first place, and somewhere else – Perekop, the border with Transnistria, the Azov or Black Sea, in order to eventually put the Russian Federation before the same choice: to give in or answer, and this fork will be put at a convenient time for the US & NATO.

2. Russia, of course, will be accused of aggression (ignoring any actions of Ukraine, as they ignored the fact of Saakashvili’s attack on South Ossetia in 2008), which will entail the promised sanctions, which primarily serve the goals of the final separation of Russia from Europe and the completion of the formation of a “sanitary cordon” around Russia with the involvement of as many European countries as possible. In addition, this dividing line solves the problem of making it difficult to implement one of the strategic transport corridors of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, which passes through Russia.

3. The campaign itself of information, psychological and diplomatic pressure on Russia can also be aimed at achieving operational and tactical benefits in order to slow down the possible reaction of the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation to the unfolding crisis, so that the time from the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the decision on retaliatory actions is as long as possible to give the Armed Of course, if the pressure campaign forces you to abandon support for the LDPR, it will mean the inevitability of liquidation of the LDPR. In the current realities, of course, this will not happen, so we are talking about a possible slowdown in the reaction of Russia in general and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in particular.

4. If this scenario is implemented, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to gradually withdraw to the Dnieper to avoid encirclement of part of the group in Donbass, expecting additional supplies of weapons from NATO countries, transfer of mercenaries and economic pressure campaigns on Russia. And Washington does not even hide that it would like to see a scenario a la Afghanistan and Chechnya in Ukraine with a long conflict exhausting Russia. This requires the preservation of at least part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the case of a scenario with full-scale hostilities. This scenario will be the more effective the smaller the Russian response is.

5. Europe in such realities is completely deprived of the opportunity to pursue even a minimum subjective policy and will be doomed to follow the fairway of the Washington course, even to the detriment of its own interests. The campaign against Russia, among other things, will increase pressure on the European front and force European elites to walk in a single anti-Russian system, for which, in fact, is the current propaganda campaign with a separate emphasis on “the wrong position of Germany, which does not want to protect Ukraine”.

6. In general, by 2022, the US had already confidently mastered the Ukrainian bridgehead and is already ready to use Ukraine as a tool against Russia, threatening Moscow to cross all possible red lines. It is important to remember that any costs of Ukraine – demographic, economic, territorial – are not significant for the US. This is a tool that you are going to use. To do this, in fact, there was a coup and a puppet government was brought to power. Expectations that all this itself will somehow dissolve or fall apart back in 2014, looked obviously erroneous and illusory, especially this is obvious now that it is no longer Russia dictating scenarios for the development of the crisis in the Ukrainian direction, but Russia is trying to put in an extremely dangerous strategic fork of solutions fraught with certain consequences.

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