south front

Russia’s Defeat In Kherson
South Front, Nov 10 2022

The command of the AFRF decided to withdraw troops in the Kherson region to the left bank of the Dnieper River. The Russian military will leave the city of Kherson, which recently became the capital of the new Russian region, and nearby settlements, in order to establish a new line of defense along the wide Dnieper River. According to the Russian Military Command, the decision was caused by military necessity. The Russian grouping on the right bank suffered from supply difficulties, as the crossing of the Dnieper was under constant fire from Ukrainian forces. There was a high risk of the advance of Ukrainian units along the river in the direction of Berislav and as a result the Russian grouping could be encircled. According to the Russian military command, the withdrawal of troops will be carried out in the near future. Taking into account the steppe terrain of the Kherson region, a strategic withdrawal is a very difficult operation. Ukrainian forces will make every effort to inflict maximum damage on the retreating Russian forces. The situation on the fronts of Kherson has changed little so far. According to preliminary reports on the morning of Nov 10, Russian units have begun to withdraw from positions in only one direction. It is reported that Ukrainian units took control of the villages of Pravdino and Kiselevka.

On other fronts, the Russian army continues to deter Ukrainian attacks. Heavy fighting has been ongoing since Nov 8 in the area of Snigirevka, where Ukrainian forces were able to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts along the railway tracks. On Nov 10, Ukrainian units made another attempt to storm the town, pulling additional reserves to the site. It is reported that Russian servicemen repelled the attack, destroying at least a dozen armored fighting vehicles and a Mi-8 helicopter. So far, reports of Russian withdrawal from Snignirevka have not been confirmed. Early in the morning, the Ukrainian Army resumed its offensive on the Berislav direction. Ukrainian forces gained a foothold southwest of Dudchany, but their advance was stopped by minefields and counter-attacks by Russian forces. According to preliminary data, last night Russian kamikaze drones hit objects in Krivoy Rog. The explosions took place in the area of the dam on the Ingulets River, the local military town and in the Central City district. In turn, Ukrainian forces attacked Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka. The shelling of the ferry crossing in Kherson, where civilians are being evacuated from the city, also continues. The decision of the Russian military to leave the city of Kherson is another major military defeat on the Ukrainian front lines. It has important military, political and moral consequences. At the same time, it seems to be a measure necessary to save the combat capability of the entire Russian grouping in Ukraine.

Russians Strengthen Defense Lines in Crimea
South Front, Nov 10 2022

The Russian military are preparing to defend Crimea from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their NATO allies. The recently shared online satellite imagery revealed that Russian forces are actively reinforcing the military positions in the north of the peninsula. The footage showed the renewal and digging of new trenches near the Isthmus of Perekop which links the peninsula with and the mainland. The firts photo was reportedly taken on Nov 5 near the town of Armyansk. An excavator is seen digging new trenches in the area:

The second photo was reportedly taken on Oct 10:

It shows Russian trenches on the Chongar peninsula located in the north-eastern part of Crimea. There are two roads leading to Crimea from the mainland. Border posts were established near Armyansk and Chongar after Crimea entered Russia in 2014. In Sep 2022, after the Kherson region also entered the Russian Federation, the borders between the two Russian regions were eliminated. Amid the upcoming retreat of the Russian military from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, the threat of further Ukrainian advance is growing. The northern regions in Crimea may be easily shelled by Ukrainian artillery and foreign advance systems as soon as Ukrainian forces approach the Dhieper. The battle for Crimea is no more a pipe dream of the Kiev regime.

Russian Military Pull Back From Kherson
South Front, Nov 9 2022

The first big city which recently became the capital of a new region of Russia will be abandoned by Russian forces. On Nov 9, the Russian military announced the withdrawal from Kherson. Commander of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, Russian General Surovikin, reported to Defence Minister Shoigu a plan to withdraw Russian troops to new defensive lines along the Dnieper River. The Russian Defence Minister approved it. The transfer of Russian forces from the right bank of the river will be carried out in the near future. The main statements declared by General Sergei Surovikin included:

The situation in the area of the special operation is generally stabilized, the combat capabilities of the joint forces have increased significantly, the combat strength has been increased at the expense of the mobilized servicemen, reserves have been created. Russian troops have resumed offensive operations in certain areas. All attempts of offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kupyansk and Krasnolimansk directions have been stopped. There are street battles on the eastern outskirts of Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The AFRF have resumed offensive operations, the enemy was defeated on the right bank of the Bakhmutka River in the Donetsk direction. From August to October, the AFU lost more than 9.5k people killed and wounded in the Kherson direction. In October, the Ukrainian army lost over 12k soldiers. The losses of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are 7-8 times less than those of the enemy. Due to constant shelling, Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be supplied and function, people’s lives are constantly in danger. The most appropriate option is to organize defense along the barrier line of the Dnieper River. The decision to take defensive positions on the left bank of the Dnieper River is not easy, at the same time, we will save the lives of our military and the combat capability of the units. The maneuver will be carried out in the near future. Shoigu agreed with these conclusions and suggestions. He ordered to withdraw troops from Kherson.

The withdrawal of Russian troops in the Kherson region is already the 3rd Russia’s major military defeat in Ukraine after the loss of the towns of Balakleya and Krasny Liman. One of the reasons for the surrender was the inability of Russian forces to provide supplies and secure the logistics on the right bank of the Dnieper river. It means that Ukrainian forces managed to disable or seriously disrupt Russian communication lines through the water barrier. Russian troops had to defend a large area on the prolonged front lines. They continuously repelled Ukrainian attacks but the risk of being surrounded remained high. The withdrawal to the left bank to the new lines of defence seems to be a difficult, tragic and controversial decision, but it was, apparently, dictated by a military necessity. A potential large-scale battle on the right bank of the Dnieper river would lead to heavy losses and, according to various estimates, could undermine the combat capability of the entire Russian Army. The defense of the city of Kherson was possible, but would have been accompanied by heavy losses among the civilian population and Russian combat-ready military units. The withdrawal of Russian troops will undermine the security of several strategically important civilian facilities, including the Kakhovskaya hydro power plant, the Antonovsky bridge, North-Crimean water channel which was re-opened after years of the water blockade of the peninsula. So far, a lot of civilians have been evacuated from the dangerous area to the left bank of the river. Since November 9, people could leave the city by their own means.

The decision of the Russian military entails dangerous military threats for the Russian side. According to open sources, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine holds at least eight brigades in the Kherson direction, which have recently lost some of their offensive potential, but are still combat-ready. They include the 28th, 60th, 61st mechanized brigades, 59th motorized infantry and 35th marine brigades, 46th airmobile, 128th mountain assault and 17th tank brigades, as well as at least three brigades of the so-called territorial defence. Since the Russian military lost the possibility to launch offensive operations in the region in the nearest future, most of these Ukrainian units will be transfered to the front lines in other war-torn regions. It is expected that another area of the Ukrainian offensive could be the Zaporozhie region where the AFU may attempt to advance towards Mariupol in order to cut the entire Russian grouping in Ukraine, as well as to cut the road from the mainland Russia to Crimea. Russian withdrawal from Kherson is also a heavy informational blow to Moscow. The West and Kiev declare the Russian retreat is an unconditional victory of Ukrainian forces. As a result of a successful Western media campaign, Russia’s today’s decision will significantly increase the flow of Western weapons to the war-torn country after they allegedly proved their effectiveness on the battlefield and the policies of the Kiev’s partners led to important military and political results. Stoltenberg claimed:

It is encouraging to see how the brave Ukrainian forces are able to liberate more Ukrainian territory.

Adviser to the head of the presidential administration of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, has also claimed that the “liberation” of Kherson or another important city by Ukrainians would not be a starting point for negotiations with Moscow. Podolyak said in an interview with Present Time:

Kherson is not the point after which the negotiation process will be really possible. It is nonsense to talk about a serious negotiation process after the liberation of Kherson, after the liberation of Lugansk and the like. No. President Zelensky clearly means: they left the territory of Ukraine – after that, of course, a negotiation process is possible.

If the surrender of Kherson was another Russia’s gesture of goodwill and an attempt to start peace negotiations, then it immediately failed. The Russian military is yet to begin the withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region. According to various reports from the area, Russian forces have recently reinforced their defences on the Kherson front lines. In their turn, the Ukrainian military officials have also declared that there is still no sign of the upcoming Russian retreat. The Kiev regime reacts cautiously, being afraid to fall into Russian information trap. There are also doubts that the Russian military command would openly declare its plans in the war-torn region which would provide the Ukrainian side with time necessary to inflict more damage to the retreating forces.

One Comment

  1. Albert de King
    Posted November 10, 2022 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

    If you think of this conflict as ultimately a financial war, it all makes sense. The longer this drags out, thr mire likely the US goes into default and Russia wins… financially.

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