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the endless whatnot (i missed this on tuesday)

The New Great Game Round-Up #105
Christoph Germann, Jul 28 2015

As the situation in northern Afghanistan deteriorates further, the neighbouring Central Asian states as well as Russia and China are becoming increasingly worried about a possible spillover of violence. Pindostan, on the other hand, has dismissed these concerns from the beginning and continues to insist that the security situation in Afghanistan poses no threat to the neighbouring ‘stans. This is a bold claim in light of the territorial gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in Faryab province, which borders Turkmenistan. A few days ago, insurgents blew up an electricity tower in Faryab, disrupting electricity supply to the provincial capital Maymana and four other districts. It was the second time in one week that the power supply lines have been cut due to the fighting. Since pro-government militias are retreating in most areas and Maymana is in danger of falling to militants, the Afghan government wants to launch a major military operation in the province as soon as possible:

Major operation on the way in northern Faryab province
A major military operation is due to kick off in northern Faryab province of Afghanistan to clear the under the control of the Taliban militants. The operation is expected to be launched jointly by the Afghan national security forces including Afghan special forces along with the anti-Taliban public uprising forces. A lawmaker representing northern Faryab province in the Lower House of the Parliament, Wolesi Jirga, told RFE that the operation will be conducted as per the instructions of the First Vice President.

First Vice President Abd’ul-Rashid Dostum and another equally powerful and controversial figure, the governor of Balkh province Atta Mohammad Noor, recently agreed to join forces in order to repel the insurgents in Faryab and other northern Afghan provinces. Noor has long criticized the government for ignoring the rising militant violence in the north. In the search for scapegoats, Dostum has lately also suggested that people inside the government “have paved the way” for the militants and he vowed to reveal the culprits very soon. Although the infamous Afghan warlord is not a friend of the Taliban, he pointed out that foreign fighters from Central Asia and China are the driving force behind the current militant offensive and not the Afghan Taliban. Moreover, Dostum asserted that he is now capable of dealing with the insurgency in northern Afghanistan thanks to the full backing of the government, which had not been the case previously. But given the alarming situation, Kabul doesn’t have much choice:

Taliban Take Remote Afghan Police Base After Mass Surrender
The Taliban took control of a large police base in a remote part of north-eastern Afghanistan after some 100 police and border guards joined the insurgents following three days of fighting, security officials said Sunday. The loss of the Tirgaran base in Badakhshan province marked the largest mass surrender since Pindosi and NATO forces concluded their combat mission at the end of last year. It highlighted the challenges facing Afghan security forces, which have seen their casualties soar in the face of stepped-up insurgent attacks. The police base, in the province’s Wardoj district, had been cut off as heavy rains destroyed roads into the area, said Gen. Baba Jan, Badakhshan province’s police chief. It wasn’t clear why reinforcements hadn’t been flown into the area, though the province’s steep valleys often make aircraft landings difficult.

While Afghan officials stated that the local police commander and his men defected to the Taliban and handed over the base’s weapons and ammunition, the Taliban claimed that they managed to overrun the police base and capture the security forces. They substantiated their claims shortly thereafter by releasing 107 security personnel captured at the base. Badakhshan has seen some of the heaviest fighting since ISAF left the province in the hands of the Afghan security forces. The ineptitude of the Afghan army and the growing presence of Taliban and foreign fighters have not gone unnoticed by neighbouring countries. Especially Tajikistan has been sounding the alarm over the developments in Badakhshan province, but China is worried as well. This is one of the reasons why Beijing is taking a leading role in facilitating the Afghan peace talks:

Afghan peace deal: Islamabad, Beijing ready to become ‘guarantors’
Pakistan and China are ready to become ‘guarantors’ of a possible peace deal between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban, officials familiar with the development have said. “We are ready to go the extra mile. We are even willing to become guarantors for any peace agreement,” said a senior Pakistani official. During the talks, the Afghan side demanded immediate ceasefire from the Afghan Taliban. However, the Taliban reportedly agreed to cease fire if Islamabad and Beijing become ‘guarantors’ to ensure that a ‘United National Government’ will be formed in Afghanistan. Another official said China is also ready to provide guarantees if all the negotiating parties accept this arrangement. Following the Murree talks, China had hinted at playing a more proactive role in brokering a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

The noteworthy statement of the unnamed senior Pakistani official immediately attracted India’s attention, and the Press Trust of India (PTI) asked Beijing to comment on the report. China’s Foreign Ministry evaded a direct response and only said that China will maintain close cooperation will all parties to bring about peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. After the first meeting between representatives from the Afghan government and the Taliban in Islamabad went better than expected, most parties have high hopes for the second round of talks this week. China was expected to host the upcoming meeting, but a senior Pakistani security official just confirmed that the negotiations will continue in Pakistan. With the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor making progress, it comes as no real surprise that Islamabad and Beijing are currently doing their best to facilitate the Afghan peace talks:

China-Pakistan economic corridor under construction
Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif has inspected a road network under construction in Balochistan Province, which is part of a China-Pakistan development project. The economic corridor project links Gwadar Port in south-western Pakistan to north-western China’s Xinjiang. Sharif said the corridor will transform the lives of local people and boost the development of the region. The construction is being out by Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation, a military administrative staff corps. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was launched as part of the “One Belt, One Road” initiatives to connect Asia and Europe proposed by China.

Given the ongoing security problems in Balochistan and Xinjiang, chaos in neighbouring Afghanistan is the last thing that Pakistan and China need right now. The Pakistani military has vowed to protect Chinese workers and engineers who will assist in the construction of the project with a 12,000-strong special security force. In exchange for billions of dollars in investments, Islamabad has also taken some action against Uyghur Jihadis and other foreign fighters seeking refuge in the Pakistani tribal areas. As usual, Beijing prefers to throw money at the problem. Lately, Chinese consulate officials have reportedly been offering money to Uyghurs in Pakistan for information about activists campaigning against Chinese rule in ‘East Turkestan.’ The Chinese authorities take no chances when it comes to the insurgency in Xinjiang, but an incident in the capital of the north-eastern Liaoning province two weeks ago served as a stark reminder that the Uyghur militancy is no longer confined to China’s far west:

China says police shoot dead three Xinjiang ‘terrorists’
Chinese police in the north-eastern city of Shenyang shot dead three knife-wielding Uighur militants screaming for Islamic holy war and wounded another on Monday as they tried to resist arrest, the government and state media said. “When police pursued the terrorist suspects, four terrorists armed with knives resisted arrest. Police fired shots only after the terrorists ignored warnings,” the Shenyang public security bureau said on its official microblog late on Monday. The state-run Beijing News, citing the Liaoning provincial government, said the militants, from Xinjiang, were killed on Monday afternoon after police tried to enter a rented house during a raid.

Police said that the four were suspected of involvement in the “Jun 12 Hijra case” without elaborating what the case is about. 16 other people have been arrested in connection with the case. Hijra refers to the journey of the Islamic prophet Muhammad and his followers from Mecca to Medina to escape persecution. Chinese counter-terrorism expert Li Wei pointed out that suspected terrorists used to travel to southern China, but the “case in Shenyang suggests that the Hijra movement might have spread across the country.” As previously discussed, the Chinese government has stepped up its efforts to prevent Uyghurs from crossing the border into South-east Asia. When Tong Bishan from China’s Ministry of Public Security recently exposed Turkey’s role in Uyghur smuggling and terror operations, he mentioned that more Uyghurs are now trying to leave via north-eastern China due to increased security along the borders with Laos and Vietnam. One week after the shooting in Shenyang, China’s state broadcaster highlighted the growing terrorist threat in the north by airing an interview:

China arrests Uygur suspect who planned ‘bomb attack’ on shopping mall
Police foiled a terrorist plot to bomb a shopping mall in Hebei province, state media said on Monday, as it aired a “confession” by a suspect from the far western region of Xinjiang who said he had trained for the attack in Syria. The suspect from Kashgar said in a eight-minute video on China Central Television that he had fled to Syria via Turkey for “bomb-making training” in early 2013. He said he returned to China earlier this year, staying in Shijiazhuang, where he plotted to blow up a shopping mall. The case and confession could not be independently verified, but the report underscored Beijing’s concern that the threat of terror attacks was spreading.

Furthermore, the report underscored Turkey’s role in facilitating the illegal migration and terrorist recruitment of Uyghurs. According to Beijing-based analyst Jiang Zhaoyong, the Chinese authorities “wanted the video to show the danger of having a pathway in Turkey for illegal migrants to flee to overseas terrorist groups.” Predictably, World Uyghur Congress (WUC) spokesman Dilxat Raxit had a different take on the video. He dismissed the confession as an attempt to “hype up hostility against Uyghurs.” Beijing is getting increasingly fed up with the WUC and its Western supporters. After the shooting in Shenyang, Global Times launched a scathing attack on the WUC and the West, emphasizing that “Chinese people are clear that some Western forces are pushing the terrorist activities in Xinjiang.” As recent developments have shown, these terrorist activities are now spreading across the country:

Chinese police catch two terror suspects, seize explosives and knives after tip-off
Mainland police on Friday caught two terror suspects in a pre-dawn crackdown on an alleged terrorist group based in Wenzhou in the eastern Zhejiang province. Officers seized explosives, knives and other weapons and were investigating the case, the office said on Weibo. It did not give details about the suspects’ ethnicity, their plots or the number of people involved. Li Wei, director of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations’ counter-terrorism research centre, said the cases showed that separatists and religious extremists were exploring new routes to flee abroad for terrorist training.

Now it is up to the Chinese authorities to shut down the new routes. Poor intelligence and porous borders have long stymied China’s efforts to stop Uyghurs from leaving via South-east Asia, but increased security along the boders with Laos and Vietnam appears to be paying off. Prior to that, many Uyghurs tried to cross into Central Asia via Kyrgyzstan. According to a Beijing-based diplomatic source, Southeast Asia became the preferred route for Uyghurs to flee the country only after Kyrgyzstan stepped up security at China’s request. Joint Kyrgyz-Chinese border operations highlight the fruitful cooperation. Since Beijing is not in the business of giving awards to human rights activists, Kyrgyzstan’s cooperation with China doesn’t face the same difficulties as cooperation with Western partners. Pindostan just learned the hard way that the Kyrgyz government doesn’t flinch from taking drastic measures if it feels offended:

Kyrgyzstan cancels cooperation treaty with Pindostan
Kyrgyzstan cancelled a cooperation treaty with Pindostan on Tuesday, raising the stakes in a diplomatic row triggered by the award of a human rights prize to a jailed dissident. Kyrgyz PM Temir Sariyev ordered his cabinet to renounce the 1993 Bilateral Agreement with Pindostan. It will not be valid starting Aug 20, the government said in a statement. The agreement provided for Pindosi aid to Kyrgyzstan to be brought into and out of the country without the levying of taxes, customs duties or any other payment.

Moreover, the agreement ensured that Pindo personnel supporting military or civil aid programs in Kyrgyzstan were granted near-diplomatic status. Although renouncing the 1993 treaty is by no means tantamount to breaking off diplomatic relations, it is a significant step highlighting the deterioration of Kyrgyzstan’s relationship with Pindostan. Washington didn’t expect Bishkek to take such drastic measures in response to the human rights award for Azimjon Askarov. Pindostan said it was disappointed by the decision but reaffirmed that it will continue to provide assistance to the Central Asian country. USAID, which has been involved in a lot of projects in Kyrgyzstan, will now have to make do without its privileged status. Despite mounting criticism at home and abroad, Kyrgyz Pres Atambayev defended the decision to cancel the agreement and went on the offensive:

Kyrgyz leader says Pindostan sought chaos by decorating dissident
Kyrgyz Pres Atambayev said on Monday that Pindostan had sought to “create chaos” in his country by granting an award to a jailed dissident. Atambayev told a news conference in a resort area outside the capital Bishkek: “This cannot fail to shock and for Kyrgyzstan, this means ethnic instability and an attempt to create chaos. It’s just revolting. Someone needs instability in Kyrgyzstan. Someone wants these ashes to smolder all the time.”

Atambayev warned that the award could nurture a dangerous “separatist mood” among Uzbeks by promoting the preconception that “there will never be justice in Kyrgyzstan” for the Uzbek community. Not everyone in the country shares Atambayev’s views. Many people criticized the government for renouncing the treaty. Opposition leader Ravshan Zheenbekov even suggested bringing PM Sariyev to justice for abuse of power, because he was the one who signed the document. Some critics emphasized that the government probably didn’t make this decision on its own, but rather after getting some friendly advice from Moscow. This theory has also been promoted by the usual suspects in the media. Atambayev is clearly aware that it looks like Moscow was pulling the strings behind the scenes. Therefore, he decided to point out that Kyrgyzstan is not a Russian vassal:

Atambayev: Some Day, Russian Military Will Have To Leave Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan’s president has suggested that Russia’s military base in the country will have to leave at some point, perhaps in an effort to signal that even as relations with Pindostan suffer, he doesn’t intend the country to be a Russian vassal. “We have a long-term agreement, but sooner or later in the future Kyrgyzstan will have to defend itself, without relying on the bases of brotherly friendly countries,” Almazbek Atambayev said at a press conference on Jul 27. He did suggest that the base’s presence was still welcome today: the base’s establishment “was due to threats which the republic can not withstand still today, so the decision on the opening of the base was correct and remains relevant today,” he added.

it’s an elementary error to blame this explosion of phony jihadis, on obama

Proliferation+of+conflict+in+Middle+East++North+Africa+over+the+last+5+years+1
Proliferation+of+conflict+in+Middle+East++North+Africa+over+the+last+5+years+2

The chain of responsibility is pretty clear, and it doesn’t lead to the White House, or even to Langley. It leads to the Kirya in Tel Aviv, and the headquarters of Mossad, a few miles up the main road north, at 32.144736 N, 34.804301 E:

Screenshot from 2015-08-01 13:15:00

But the management of ISIS is surely handled by Prince Bandar. So as I explained some weeks ago, it is doubly or even triply deniable for Washington in terms of its real origin and purpose. But that does not mean Washington controls it, because IMHO Tel Aviv controls it. By the way, have some humour:

our friends & masters in langley must feel a sudden imperative need to restart the kosovan war

Kosovo to put war crimes court to new vote
Fatos Bytyci, Reuters, Jul 31 2015

PRISTINA – Kosovo’s government asked parliament on Friday to reconsider its rejection of an ad hoc court to try ethnic Albanian former guerrillas for alleged war crimes including organ harvesting, responding to intense Western pressure. The young Balkan state’s parliament last month voted against creating the court. The now-disbanded KLA, which counts among its former ranks much of Kosovo’s current political elite, has been dogged for years by allegations it removed organs from ethnic Serb captives, who were then killed and their organs sold on the black market. Kosovo’s chief diplomatic and financial backers, Pindostan and the EU, have lobbied hard for Kosovo to address the accusations, and were disappointed by parliament’s ‘No’ vote last month. They warn failure to create the court risks seeing the issue taken up by the UNSC and the inevitable involvement of Russia, which opposes Kosovan sovereignty. Kosovo PM Isa Mustafa told a cabinet meeting televised for journalists:

We have to be aware that we cannot build and develop this country if we are isolated by friendly countries. Voting for these changes in the parliament will bring long-term benefit for Kosovo.

Parliament is expected to vote next week, possibly on Tuesday. Local media reports say Foreign Minister Hashim Thaci, a former guerrilla leader, has managed to quell opposition to the court in his Democratic Party of Kosovo, which emerged from the KLA. Some of the party’s MPs rebelled last month and voted against the court. The KLA took up arms against Slobodan Milosevic in the late 1990s, eventually winning NATO air support. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008 and has been recognized by over 100 states, not including Serbia or Russia. If parliament approves the court, it will be located in the Netherlands, due to concerns over witness intimidation and judicial corruption in Kosovo.

this is downright exotic

Congress critturs didn’t knowingly break rules with Azerbaijan gifts
Scott Wong, The Hill, Jul 31 2015

azerbaijanuhnnhh, spooky – RB

The House Ethics Committee on Friday closed an investigation into 10 Congress critturs and 32 of their aides, finding that they did not “knowingly” break any law or House rule when they accepted airfare and gifts that were secretly funded by Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company. But the Ethics panel said “third parties” outside the House may have broken the law by misleading congressional investigators, as well as the critturs and their staffers themselves. The panel said it would refer the matter to the Justice Dept. Investigators found that money for airfare and gifts may have been hidden through Texas-based non-profits which filed false statements saying they were paying for the trip. Ethics Chairman Charlie Dent and Linda Sanchez, the ranking Democrat, said in a joint statement:

The Committee is referring the matter of third parties apparently engaging in a criminal conspiracy to lie to Congress to the Dept of Justice for such further action as it deems appropriate.

All of the Congress critturs and staff members who attended the 2013 trip did so only after receiving prior approval from the same Ethics panel. And those questioned in the investigation all cooperated, the committee said. The Committee “found no evidence that the members and staff who participated in the trip knowingly violated any House Rule, law, regulation or other standard of conduct,” the Ethics panel said. The probe included a dozen subpoenas, interviews with 10 witnesses, 18 voluntary requests for information, and 190,000 pages of material. The panel wrote:

Because the House travellers acted in good faith, and the evidence was inconclusive as to the true source of funds for the travel, the Committee concluded that the trips did not constitute an impermissible gift of travel, and decided that no further action is required.

The 10 critturs exonerated by the Ethics Committee were Jim Bridenstine, Ted Poe, Gregory Meeks, Sheila Jackson Lee, Yvette Clarke, Danny Davis, Rubén Hinojosa, Leonard Lance, Michelle Lujan Grisham and Steve Stockman.

maximum bollocks from french jew govt (israel being 100% devoted to the destruction of russia, let’s get that absolutely clear)

Hollande denies Mistral compensation deal
BBC, Jul 31 2015

Pres Hollande has denied claims that France has agreed to pay compensation to Russia for cancelling the sale of two warships. Hollande said no agreement had been reached, contradicting an aide to Putin. Hollande told a news conference:

Discussions are under way. I will make a decision in the coming weeks.

The deal, for two Mistral helicopter carriers, was worth €1.2b. Russia made an advance payment of about €840m. The first of two, the Vladivostok, was supposed to be delivered to Russia in Nov 2014. Vladimir Kozhin, a military technology adviser to Putin, said on Friday that negotiations over compensation were “completely finished.” Kozhin told RIA Novosti:

Everything has already been decided, both the time-frame and the amount.

Hollande’s comments suggest that the agreement is still in question. Sources close to the talks quoted by Kommersant have suggested France will compensate Russia to the tune of €1.16b. That sum includes the amount that Russia has already spent on special training for 400 sailors, on port infrastructure in Vladivostok for the two warships and on developing four prototype Ка-52К helicopters. The compensation deal was discussed last week at talks between Russian Deputy PM Rogozin and French Sec Def Gautier, Kommersant reports. The Mistral contract dates back to a Jun 2011 agreement reached under then-Pres Sarkozy.

this will not do it, they need to send all their top hellcats over to do the womens’ shows

Bibi’s ‘virtual town-hall format’ appeal to Pindo Jews
Rebecca Shimoni Stoil, Times of Israel, July 31, 2015

WASHINGTON – In the latest of a series of attempts to persuade Pindo Jews to push their legislators to reject the Iran nuclear deal, Netanyahu will deliver an address to the North American Jewish community next week to discuss the agreement. The announcement issued by the CPMAJO comes a day after Obama held a mass conference call with supporters of the deal, to rally them behind the agreement. According to the CPMAJO, Netanyahu will address Pindo and Canadian Jewish communities through a live webcast on Tuesday afternoon. In addition to delivering remarks, the prime minister will also take questions from participants. In a virtual twist on a town hall meeting, the CPMAJO and Jewish Federations in Pindostan and Canada are encouraging participants to join the call through computers and cell phones as well as through group viewings at Jewish institutions. The CPMAJO said in an announcement Friday afternoon:

The prime minister will deliver remarks directly from his office in Jayloomia, which will be transmitted to computers, cell phones and flat screens set up in synagogues, organizations and Jewish community centers large and small throughout the continent.

Participation is free, and participants can register in advance online. Stephen Motherfucking Greenberg, chairman of the CPMAJO, said:

The issues involved with the Iran nuclear agreement are complex and of great consequence to the North American Jewish population. We welcome this unique opportunity to present the prime minister, who has helped bring these vital issues to public attention.

The CPMAJO has hosted a number of information sessions on the deal, while its leaders have continued to express skepticism on some of the terms of the agreement. The CPMAJO is an umbrella organization that represents dozens of the 52 main Jewish groups across the political spectrum, counting among its members both supporters and opponents of the agreement. The Jewish Federations of North America, the event’s co-sponsor, has also had a delicate balancing act regarding positioning on the issue. Some local federations have issued statements opposing the deal, while others have chosen to remain neutral as the agreement is debated in the halls of Congress. Michael Siegal, Chairman of the Board of the Jewish Federations of North America, said:

There is no doubt that at this time, the worldwide community is in the midst of a historic moment. Federation communities throughout the continent have been actively engaged on this issue for years, and they understand the complexities of these important discussions. We appreciate the opportunity to allow our constituents to engage with the prime minister directly in what will no doubt be an informative and enlightening session.

The Pindosi Jewish community is seen as a key barometer for the fate of the deal, as Congress enjoys a 60-day review period of the agreement, before a crucial vote on a resolution of disapproval or approval in September. A number of Jewish organizations, including the Orthodox Union, have called on members to lobby their Congress critturs to oppose the agreement. Other organizations, like the AJC, say that they are still reviewing the details of the agreement, and have yet to determine an official stance on it. J Street has been at the vanguard of the deal’s advocates, quickly announcing its support for the agreement and arguing that it presents the best opportunity to rein in Iran’s spinning centrifuges. The leftist lobbying organization was one of the participants in the Thursday afternoon conference call with Obama, during which the president warned against the power of mega-donors who opposed the deal and called on supporters to speak up in support of the agreement.