DUP leader Arlene Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds have arrived at No 10 for talks with Boris Johnson.
Andrew Sparrow, Groon, Sep 10 2019
Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds arrive at Downing Street. Photo: Peter Summers
NI-only backstop ‘simply a non-runner,’ says DUP boxtop
Andrew Sparrow, Groon, Sep 10 2019
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP chief whip, was on BBC World at One. Like his boss, Arlene Foster, he insisted that Boris Johnson would not sanction an NI-only backstop. He explained:
I don’t see the prime minister who appointed himself as the minister for the Union agreeing to an arrangement that separates NI from GB in trading terms, so I think that this idea that you have an NI-only backstop, where you have a trade border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB, is simply a non-runner. In any event, it would contravene the core principles of the Good Friday agreement, the Belfast agreement. The solution to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland is not to create a second border in the Irish Sea, because I think that would be deeply destabilising.
He also rejected suggestions the DUP was losing influence over No 10, saying:
I think the idea that our influence is waning flies in the face of reality. Our leader will be meeting with Boris Johnson, we are plugged into the ongoing discussions about alternative arrangements, we have a significant role to play and, therefore, I would argue that our influence remains.
Downing Street has denied wanting an NI-only backstop. But there have been multiple claims that this is the direction in which Johnson is heading, including from the EU’s new trade commissioner.
EU looks to NI-only backstop to break Brexit deadlock
Daniel Boffey, Graun, Sep 10 2019
Brussels – The EU is pinning hopes on British negotiators reverting to the Northern Ireland-only backstop previously rejected by Theresa May as a threat to the constitutional integrity of the UK. With Boris Johnson faced with the choice of breaking his word and extending the UK’s EU membership beyond Oct 31 or bringing back a tweaked deal for a last-gasp vote in parliament, officials and diplomats have expressed hope that the prime minister will stage a government U-turn. EU sources insisted there was no other approach that could work with the negotiations otherwise doomed to hit a “zombie stage” given the likelihood of an imminent general election. Nathalie Loiseau, a former French minister of EU affairs, said:
We don’t know what mandate has the prime minister to propose something, and obviously there is a strong division between the parliament and the government.
It is hoped in Brussels that Johnson’s EU envoy, David Frost, will further pursue an NI-only backstop during meetings with the commission’s Brexit taskforce on Wednesday and Friday. The UK government has sought to pour cold water on the suggestion. A No 10 spox said:
We are not seeking an NI-only backstop.
The newly nominated EU commissioner for trade, Phil Hogan, a former Irish minister, told the Irish Times he believed the “penny is finally dropping” in Johnson’s government over the lack of alternatives. Johnson has said he wants to remove the Irish backstop from the withdrawal agreement as it would tie NI into the single market and the whole of the UK into a shared customs territory with the EU. Johnson has described the arrangement as “undemocratic” and railed against signing a treaty that would be “inconsistent with the sovereignty of the UK” by tying it into a customs union. But his proposal in recent days of a single all-Ireland agrifood zone has offered some hope that the government may return to the initial EU suggestion of an arrangement that solely keeps NI within the EU’s structures. May, whose government was reliant on the support of the DUP for her working majority, had rejected NI alone staying in the single market and customs union on the grounds that “no British PM” could accept such a regulatory border being drawn in the Irish Sea. But Hogan said that Johnson, who visited the Irish taoiseach Leo Varadkar in Dublin on Monday, had offered some grounds for optimism in his recent talks. Hogan warned that the single agrifood zone was some distance from a solution to the Brexit impasse. He said:
Mr Johnson has made a proposal in the last few days talking about an all-Ireland food zone. That is certainly a clear indication of divergence between NI and the Republic of Ireland/the EU, and the rest of the UK. This is the first time that this has been spoken about by a British PM where they are prepared to accept some level of divergence between NI and the rest of the UK. If we can build on that we certainly might get closer to one another in terms of a possible outcome. It would have to include all goods, in terms of any agreement. I remain hopeful that the penny is finally dropping with the UK that there are pragmatic and practical solutions that can actually be introduced into the debate at this stage, albeit at the eleventh hour, that may find some common ground between the EU and the UK. The taoiseach has indicated in the last 24 hours that the NI-only backstop is quite an interesting idea to revisit.
Fabian Zulig of the European Policy Centre thinktank in Brussels said:
The only point of the talks in Brussels would be to discuss an extension of Article 50 beyond Oct 31, or the detail of a NI-only arrangement. But in reality I don’t believe that the UK government wants to go down this route, so at the moment I don’t see anything of substance that is being discussed, because nothing else can be opened.
Following his nomination on Tuesday by incoming EC head Ursula von der Leyen, Hogan is set to take over any trade talks with the UK once the country leaves the bloc, with the former deputy chief EU negotiator, Sabine Weyand, as his director general. Hogan said:
The establishment of a new negotiating team will take probably six to eight months once we know what the outcome of the present negotiations are. Then I expect it will take a number of years before we conclude the negotiations. The divorce proceedings have to be completed first, before the future relationship, which would include a free trade agreement. But we will not be starting from scratch in the case of the UK, because they have been part of the EU for the last 45 years. I expect that we will be able to move more quickly than we would in any other trade negotiation.
Downing Street lobby briefing – summary
Andrew Sparrow, Groon, Sep 10 2019
Here are some more lines from the Downing Street lobby briefing. The prime minister’s spokesman confirmed that the government intended to publish a revised version of the government’s Operational Yellowhammer report about what might happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit. But he refused to say any more about how the government would respond to yesterday’s Commons vote saying the government should publish all documents relating to Yellowhammer, as well as private messages from nine government aides relating to prorogation. He said the government would respond to the vote in due course. But he also said the request for private messages was disproportionate and unprecedented. The spokesman dismissed suggestions that Johnson is considering an NI-only backstop. The spokesman said:
We are not seeking an NI-only backstop.
The spokesman suggested that Johnson would be holding more meetings with EU leaders soon. There are reports today saying the PM will go to Brussels next week. Asked about this, the spokesman said Johnson would be speaking with other EU leaders in the coming weeks and that his travel plans would be announced in the usual way, nearer the time. He also said David Frost, the PM’s chief Brexit adviser, would be in Brussels for talks with the EU’s Brexit team tomorrow and on Friday. The spokesman confirmed that Johnson would meet Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds, leader and deputy leader of the DUP, in Downing Street this afternoon.
Any Brexit deal must be acceptable to DUP, says Ahern
Lisa O’Carroll, Groan, Sep 10 2019
The former Irish prime minister and joint architect of the NI peace process Bertie Ahern has said it is imperative that any Brexit solution be acceptable to the DUP. His intervention is a rare warning by a prominent politician in the Republic of Ireland that imposing a deal not supported by the DUP, such as one with a NI-only backstop, would imperil a lasting solution. Ahern said the principle of “parity of esteem”, one of the core stated values of the 1998 Good Friday agreement, was not just for nationalists, and anything that was not backed by both communities in NI would be doomed to failure. He said:
Any solution has to include the Unionist people, because parity of esteem in the Good Friday agreement is both sides. To do a deal through Europe with Britain that creates a problem for the Unionist community and will be rejected by the English nationalists in the Commons, that’s not really an option.
Ahern’s comments came as the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, demanded a meeting with Boris Johnson amid fears he is prepared to back a NI-only backstop, which her party rejected in 2017. Ahern, along with Tony Blair, played a critical role in getting warring factions in NI to lay down their arms and opposing political parties to sign a lasting peace deal. Ahern’s intervention comes at a critical time in the Brexit talks, with speculation that Johnson is prepared to return to the plan for a NI-only backstop, which emerged during the first phase of talks in 2017 but was abandoned after the DUP objected. The former taoiseach said he believed there could be merit in a NI-only backstop if the Stormont assembly had a role, because the DUP might support that. Referring to the DUP’s leader in the Commons, he said:
I think Nigel Dodds has given an indication that if the executive had a role and future laws and regulations were coming out of the EU and they had a say – not a veto, he didn’t say a veto – then perhaps that is something that is workable.
Mirroring Ahern’s remarks about the unionist community, Foster told an audience on Monday evening that it was important they engage with those of a nationalist background. Ahern said he was implacably opposed to any checks at or near the Irish border, saying there would be civil disobedience among border communities and the checks would be unsustainable. He said:
The idea of checking a guy leaving Dundalk with four dozen heads of cabbage and going to Newry and counting them up on the border is not on. It would be stupid to try that. I don’t want to say it would lead to violence but it wouldn’t be sustainable, it wouldn’t be workable.
Under EU law, all animals and fresh produce including raw meat must undergo mandatory checks and last week the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, said there would be checks near the border. Ahern said they would need to be done near the border but “back in offices, point of manufacture or point of distribution.” He said the scenes in parliament over the last week showed “the level of raw bitterness” in British politics, but Ireland must not get dragged into domestic battles. He said:
We have to leave all these clouds to fade into the sky and keep our focus on the Barnier commission and continue to negotiate, if there is anything to negotiate. We have to at least have an open mind on what might come forward, so we are seen by the 27 member states that we’re not heads in the sand, that we have a negotiating hand that is different.
Foster warns Boris Johnson that NI backstop would amount to ‘break-up of UK’
Andrew Sparrow, Groan, Sep 10 2019
Anyone who has followed Boris Johnson’s career in detail will know that there is a long list of people who have put their trust in him and who at some point discover they have been let down. Are the DUP about to join the club? As my colleague Lisa O’Carroll wrote in a post on this blog yesterday, there is increasing speculation that Boris Johnson is moving towards accepting some version of a NI-only backstop as a solution to the Brexit crisis. Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt went into this in more detail in a report yesterday. Here is an excerpt from a blog setting out his understanding of Johnson’s thinking.
The Tories familiar with Boris Johnson’s thinking say he is now willing to contemplate a version of the so-called “NI-only backstop.” Under this plan, NI would be closely bound to the EU on areas where there are already elements of an all-Ireland economy, agriculture and electricity, but GB would be free to chart its own course. That would free GB to have a free trade agreement with the EU, but would create a border down the Irish Sea. All of that could be achieved by amending the backstop in the Brexit withdrawal agreement to apply only to NI. The separate political declaration would be amended to say that a “Canada+” trade deal would be negotiated for GB. The government would be wary of calling the new mechanism a backstop, because it regards the current backstop as anti-democratic. Downing St confirmed that a backstop in any form is unacceptable to the PM, but he told MPs last week that he is willing to recognise this, at least:
Agrifood is increasingly managed on a common basis across the island of Ireland.
There is potentially a big problem with this plan. The DUP would oppose anything that would create a new regulatory border between GB and NI. In his blog, Watt quotes one source explaining why a version of this proposal might be acceptable to the unionists. This morning Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, spoke to Sky News before flying to London. She said she would be speaking to Johnson later. Asked about the suggestions that Johnson was planning a NI-only backstop, she claimed this was “very wide of the mark.” Perhaps she is right, but it did sound a little as if she was not 100% convinced, and as if she was seeking to lay down a marker to the PM. She told Sky News:
There’s been a lot of speculation about that. What we’re focused on is about getting a deal that works for the whole of the UK, one that works for NI, one that does not have NI hived off into a different customs union than the rest of the UK, breaking up the single market of the UK. That would be unheard-of. To think that any UK PM would be involved in that sort of thing would just be an anathema. Jeremy Corbyn has said that in the past. Our own PM has said that. So I think all of this speculation is very wide of the mark.
When it was put to her that some people might think she was being naive, and that Johnson was more committed to delivering Brexit than to sticking with the DUP, she replied:
What people are talking about is not delivering Brexit. What people are talking about is the break-up of the UK. That is not something that any PM of the UK is going to in any conscience go along with.
A Northern Ireland-only backstop?
Daniel Boffey, Groan, Sep 10 2019
Photo: Dan Kitwood
After three years of debate and negotiation there is little new under the sun when it comes to Brexit. But it is rumoured in Westminster, and hoped in Brussels, that Boris Johnson is to revert to a NI-only backstop as he seeks to move past the Brexit impasse and avoid breaking his word and extending the UK’s membership beyond Oct 31.
What is an NI-only backstop? The British government’s version of Brexit involves the UK leaving the single market and customs union, requiring the return of a range of checks on goods crossing the border between NI and the Republic of Ireland. The “backstop” is intended as a placeholder to ensure such checks do not have to be imposed in the transition period between a withdrawal agreement being ratified and a future all-solving relationship being negotiated.
What is the Brexit ‘backstop’? The backstop in the current withdrawal agreement would temporarily keep Northern Ireland in the single market, meaning some checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain. But the whole of the UK would stay in a shared customs territory with the EU. This insurance arrangement was negotiated by Theresa May because the then-PM was of the opinion that no British PM could countenance agreeing to the EU’s first proposal, a backstop that involved only NI staying in the EU’s customs territory. That would involve a customs border being drawn in the Irish Sea. May described it as a threat to the constitutional integrity of the UK.
Why has the NI-only backstop re-emerged as a possible solution? Boris Johnson has been thwarted from holding a general election or taking the country out of the EU without a deal on Oct 31. But he has also said he would rather “die in a ditch” than ask the EU for an extension to the UK’s membership. Logic would suggest his only option now would be to agree a tweaked deal with the EU and bring it back to parliament in October. He has opened the current talks by proposing an all-Ireland agrifood zone, which is one part of a NI-only backstop. The suggestion is that he will seek to quietly build on that with further NI-only arrangements. Johnson’s EU envoy David Frost has already sought to discuss governance with the EU of any NI-only arrangements.
Will the EU agree? Given an NI-only backstop was an EU proposal in the first place, the U-turn would be warmly welcomed, although attempts to give the NI assembly a veto on its continuation would not be acceptable.
Is it likely to be the solution? It is difficult to see where Johnson finds a majority in parliament. Labour, the DUP and a large number of Conservative backbenchers have opposed the NI-only backstop in the past. An NI-only arrangement allows the UK to pursue its own trade policy, unlike the backstop in the withdrawal agreement. It could be the landing zone after a general election for a newly-returned Johnson administration if the parliamentary arithmetic has changed.
EU puts Ireland’s commissioner’ in charge of negotiating Brexit
Jon Stone, Independent, Sep 10 2019
Ireland’s EU commissioner, an arch-critic of Brexit and Boris Johnson, is to be put in charge of negotiating trade deals for the bloc, Brussels has announced. The appointment of Phil Hogan to the role of EU trade commissioner for the next five years will see him go up against the UK’s negotiators in talks, if the Brexit process gets that far. Last month he accused “unelected” PM Boris Johnson of putting “the best interests of the Tory party ahead of the best interests of the UK.” In June last year he said the tide was going out on the “high priests of Brexit,” suggesting the British public were finally seeing through the “deception and lies” of Michael Gove and Nigel Farage, whom he named. Mr Hogan was confirmed as being given the Trade portfolio by incoming Commission president Ursula von Der Leyen on Tuesday afternoon at a press conference in Brussels, where she unveiled her new cabinet. The whole Commission will have to be confirmed by the European Parliament following a series of hearings. EU sources told Irish public broadcaster RTE:
This is one of the most important economic portfolios in the next commission, coming at a very important time for the EU and Ireland.
The bloc has said it will not open trade negotiations with the UK until the issues in the withdrawal agreement, including the Irish border and divorce bill payments, are dealt with to its satisfaction. Mr Hogan, who was agriculture commissioner in Jean-Claude Juncker’s administration, will work closely with Sabine Weyand, the former deputy of Michel Barnier who is known in Brussels as the brains behind the withdrawal agreement. She was promoted to director general at the Commission’s trade department earlier this year. Ireland’s EU commissioner gave a taste of his views about a future UK-EU trade agreement in a speech in April. Noting the difficulties of negotiating deal with Pindostan, the likely impact on the UK balance of payments, and the difficulty of negotiating agreements with the Commonwealth and rolling over old EU trade deals, he warned:
Global Britain will mean a return to medium-sized nation status for the UK. Yes, it will regain the sovereignty to seek and strike agreements where it wants, but with reduced bargaining power, reduced security of its markets and supply chains, and a friction and cost added to each trade shipment to the EU, its biggest trade partner. Stepping into Global Britain is stepping into a difficult world. And there will be a huge gap between hope and experience.
Johnson prorogues Parliament
Robert Stevens, WSWS, Sep 10 2019
PM Boris Johnson prorogued Parliament Monday evening after opposition MPs voted for a second time against his attempt to force a general election before the current Brexit deadline of Oct 31. Although Johnson won the vote by 293 to 46, a motion to hold a general election requires the support of two-thirds of all the more than 600 MPs, and as opposition MPs abstained, the prime minister was far short of that. Johnson’s anti-democratic suspension of Parliament was carried out to prevent opposition MPs from taking control of Parliament’s order paper over the next five weeks and derailing his plans to withdraw the UK from the EU without a deal if necessary. The vote to oppose an early election took place after a Bill put forward by Labour Blairite MP Hilary Benn and designed to prevent Johnson imposing a no-deal Brexit received royal assent to become an act of law. It compels Johnson to request from the EU an extension to the Brexit deadline until Jan 2020 if there is no deal agreed by Oct 19. The bill was rushed through both Houses of Parliament last week, after cross-party MPs deemed it the best way to stymie Johnson’s plans. Despite being unable to prevent Benn’s Bill passing, the government insists that it will not request an extension from the EU beyond Oct 31. At a press conference last week at a police training college, Johnson stated that he would rather “die in a ditch” than agree an extension. As this would mean the executive were refusing to accept an act of law, speculation mounted over the weekend that this could result in legal action taken against Johnson by MPs. According to pro-Brexit Tory MP Nigel Evans, the government is war-gaming “about 20” different ways it can get around having to seek an extension. One option being considered was for Johnson to write to the EU to formally seek a Brexit extension and then also send another letter stating that the UK does not want an extension. Another was to exploit the sentiments of one of the EU members not in favour of granting the UK an extension. France is reportedly poised to reject an extension, with foreign minister Le Drian stating at the weekend:
We are not going to do this every three months.
Other plans being considered were Johnson calling a vote of confidence in his own government, a provision usually reserved for the leader of the main opposition party under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, or for Johnson to resign, with another figure making the request in his place as a temporary prime minister. Johnson spent part of Monday in Dublin in talks with Leo Varadkar, who declared, as he stood beside Johnson:
No backstop is no deal and so far, the British government has come up with no realistic plans to replace the backstop.
In response, Johnson was forced to say:
A no-deal Brexit would be a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible.
Johnson, under orders from the Tories’ hard Brexit wing, opposes a backstop being part of a deal. A joint statement released after his meeting with Varadkar could only state diplomatically there was “common ground” but “significant gaps remain.” Monday also saw the resignation of Parliament’s Speaker, the pro-Remain Tory John Bercow. The Financial Times noted:
During the past year, the Speaker has granted several emergency debates to pro-Remain MPs that have broken with convention to allow backbenchers to take control of the Commons and pass legislation to avoid a no-deal Brexit. This resulted in the Conservative party announcing they would stand a candidate against him at the next election, which may have played a role in his decision to retire.
It emerged that his local Conservative association, dominated by Brexiteers, planned to deselect him as their MP. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn could only complain about Johnson’s prorogation:
I think it is disgraceful. Parliament should be sitting. Parliament should be holding the government to account. And the prime minister appears to want to run away from questions.
Bercow stated that if MPs voted to oppose an early general election he would remain in place until Oct 31, the day that the UK is set to leave the EU. Giving a clear indication that he would oppose Johnson’s plans to the last, he said in his time as Speaker:
To deploy a perhaps dangerous phrase, I have also sought to be the backbencher’s backstop. I shall remain in place until the end of October, as that date will fall shortly after the votes on the Queen’s speech expected on Oct 21-22. The week or so after that may be quite lively and it would be best to have an experienced figure in the chair for that short period.
Bercow allowed two pro-Remain emergency “humble address” motions to be debated and voted on by MPs last night. The first was from Dominic Grieve, the former Tory attorney-general who was thrown out of the Conservative party last week by Johnson after he backed Benn’s Bill, along with another 20 Tory rebels. MPs voted by 311 to 302 in favour of Grieve’s request that the government publish all the documents related to “Operation Yellowhammer,” the planning documents for a no-deal outcome, and the private communications between Downing Street advisers on the decision to prorogue Parliament. The government said a revised version of Yellowhammer will be released, but it is understood to be against publishing the prorogation documents. Johnson was able to go forward with the prorogation of Parliament with opposition MPs registering pro forma protests, despite much hot air the previous week from MPs threatening to occupy the chamber to prevent prorogation. The Remain camp will be secretly pleased that Parliament is suspended, so they can try and formulate an effective counter-attack against Johnson. The other motion Bercow allowed was from Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn:
That this house welcomes the completion of all parliamentary stages of the EU (withdrawal) (No 6) bill and has considered the matter of the importance of the rule of law and ministers obligation to comply with the law.
So pro-forma was Corbyn’s move that it was put through on the nod, without even a vote being called. It was left to the Financial Times to give the Remain wing their marching orders. In an editorial Sunday, the City of London’s newspaper declared:
A zombie government means an election must be held. Boris Johnson’s Conservative government is in meltdown. It has thrown away its majority and cannot govern. (We face the) hideous choice between a likely no-deal Brexit under Mr Johnson’s Conservatives, or the revolutionary socialist project of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. We should use the prorogation period to nail down an agreement on a caretaker government headed by a more trustworthy and less divisive figure than Mr Corbyn, and on strategies for the following weeks and for an election, including opposing Johnson ignoring the law to block a no-deal, resigning or a no-confidence vote in itself that Johnson’s government may resort to.