This story has not been edited and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed, more or less – RB
Russia Keeps On Bombing Despite Truce, Bashar Vows To Fight On
Thomson Reuters, Feb 13 2016
MUNICH – Despite agreement on Friday to a pause in combat in Syria, Russia pressed on with bombing in support of Pres Assad, who vowed to fight on until he regained full control of the country. The “cessation of hostilities” agreement does not take effect for a week, at a time when Assad’s government is poised to win its biggest victory of the war with the backing of Russian air power. If implemented, the deal would allow humanitarian aid to reach besieged towns. It was described as a rare diplomatic success, but several Western countries said there was no hope for progress without a halt to the Russian bombing, which has decisively turned the balance of power in favour of Assad. Jackass Kerry said that if the peace plan fails, more foreign troops could enter the conflict. He told Dubai-based Orient TV (This is absolutely typical of the sententious, moralizing way they talk, generating imaginary oughts and oughtn’ts out of their own self-interested policies and enunciating them as if they were universal moral truths handed down by some fifth-dimensional lizard from Mount Sinai – RB):
If the Assad regime does not live up to its responsibilities, and if the Iranians and the Russians do not hold Assad to the promises that they have made … then the international community obviously is not going to sit there like fools and watch this: there will be an increase of activity, to put greater pressure on them, (and) there is a possibility there will be additional ground troops.
Obama has ruled out sending Pindo ground troops to Syria, but the Toads this month offered ground forces ‘to fight ISIS’ (of course, what else? – RB). White House spox E Schultz called the agreement “an important step” but added (exactly the same moralizing bollocks – RB):
In the coming days, we will be looking for actions not words, to demonstrate that all parties are prepared to honour their commitments.
Rebels said the town of Tal Rifaat in northern Aleppo province was the target of intensive bombing by Russian planes on Friday morning. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said warplanes believed to be Russian also attacked towns in northern Homs. AFP quoted Assad as saying he would continue to fight terrorism while talks took place. He said he would retake the entire country, although this could take a long time. Another week of fighting
would will give Syria’s government and its Russian, Lebanese and Iranian allies time to press on with the encirclement of Aleppo, which they are now on the verge of capturing. They are also close to sealing the Turkish border, a lifeline of rebel territory for years. Those two victories would reverse years of insurgent gains, effectively ending the rebels’ hopes of dislodging Assad. The cessation of hostilities agreement falls short of a formal ceasefire, since it was not signed by the main warring parties, the opposition and government forces. Russia has suggested it might not stop its air strikes even when the cessation of hostilities takes effect in a week’s time. Sergei Lavrov said Russia would not stop bombing ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, neither of which were covered by the cessation deal. He said:
Our airspace forces will continue working against these organisations.
Moscow has always said that these are the principal targets of its air campaign. Western countries say Russia has been attacking mostly other insurgent groups. Turkey’s foreign minister said on Friday Russia was targeting schools and hospitals. NATO Sec-Gen Stoltenberg said Moscow must halt strikes on insurgents other than ISIS for any peace deal to work. He said:
Russia has mainly targeted opposition groups and not ISIS. Air strikes of Russian planes against different opposition groups in Syria have actually undermined the efforts to reach a negotiated, peaceful solution.
Britain and France said a peace deal could be reached only if Russia stops bombing insurgents other than ISIS. Ashtray Carter said on Friday he expected the Toads and the UAE to send commandos to help recapture Raqqa from ISIS. Assad said he believed the Toads & Turks were planning to invade his country. Russia has said that the entry of Toad ground troops would make the war last forever. The Toad foreign minister said in an interview with a German newspaper published on Saturday that Russia’s military interventions will not help Assad stay in power. He said flatly:
There will be no Bashar al-Assad in the future.
Jackass started the Munich talks by pushing for a rapid halt to fighting, with Western boxtops saying Moscow was holding out for a delay. The tactic of agreeing to a break in hostilities while battling for gains on the ground is one Moscow’s allies used in eastern Ukraine only a year ago. A ceasefire there eventually took hold, but Russian-backed separatists overran a besieged town after the deal was reached. Boxtops from countries backing the plan met on Friday to discuss sending urgent humanitarian aid. Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, chaired the meeting in Geneva. He said:
Convoys can go very soon, if and when we have the permission and the green light from the parties.
El Murid, Feb 12 2016 15:44 MSK
The Pindosis have figured out (вчухали) how to manage temperamental (закуклившимися) Russian rulers: banal flattery. You need to praise them and call them great where they do something in the interests of Pindostan. The bloated feelings of self-importance and the green toad is the best object for manipulating. This is nothing new, the Pindosis did not invent it: flattery works great against the nobodies, and in regard to the father of the nation, these guys figured that out. Methods like in the Bantustan. Comrade Molotov, it seems, expressed himself like this: “If our enemies criticize us, it means we are doing something right.” The current rulers are not worth the little finger of the former Titans, so here Pindostan has room for any activity. In principle, it seems that the situation in Syria is similar to the end of the summer of 2014 in the Donbass. Now Aleppo will be playing the role of Mariupol. Not far away (in the near future lies Syria’s equivalent of) Minsk-1, the withdrawal of weapons with a caliber of over 100 mm, and general hide-and-seek (смотрим туда – видим здесь). For completeness, instead of Assad, the Kremlin needs to install some local bandits or strongmen as bosses of certain areas of the Syrian Arab Republic, and they can end the balagan (this word is too good to discard: it means farce, chaos, political knockabout, comic and perhaps tragic disorder in the state, something the Jews are good at causing – RB). Well, not immediately; there will be more Syrian Debaltsevos first, but then definitely a new development, all of it according to the script, and all of it will be a victory. McFaul will write a couple of tweets for the viewing pleasure of the Papuans. It isn’t hard to do (ему несложно).
Preparations for the truce
El Murid, Feb 13 2016 14:11 MSK
The ceasefire declared in Syria looks downright strange: with those you can fight, but with these we shall talk. It is not surprising that Jackass and Lavrov needed all their diplomatic skills to make more or less clear statements out of this. Meanwhile, it is possible to say that the truce in one week, the immediate surrender of (the Russian demand that it start on) Mar 1, suggests very strongly that the Kremlin is really afraid of blackmail. A rather nervous Medvedev told the Germans of the likelihood of global war if the truce will not happen, which indicates the uncertainty of the Russian leadership. No one offers to laugh at our Iskanders and their role in the joke. Once blackmail has been attempted, the result shows who is worth what. The main thing has already happened: Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to bend. In this case, the TV no longer plays any role. It is only useful for brainwashing the electorate, but
the leaders our rulers need to look at the realities. The Toads & Turks withdraw their decision to start a ground operation (maybe – RB). The British refused to answer questions about the ‘exercises’ (RB) they are currently carrying out in Jordan. Turkey today stated that Toad aircraft have arrived at the Turkish base (Incirlik – RB) ‘to fight ISIL’ (El Murid’s sneer quotes – RB). Russia has already demonstrated that it is possible to target ISIS with 20% or so of its strikes, and the various pro-Western terrorists with the remaining 80%. It is easy to assume that the Toads & Turks also can take the Pareto Principle as the basis of their actions. That is, they do some photo-ops of ‘bombing ISIS’, then drop the rest of their bombs on the Syrians and the mercenaries. You need to consider that the operation around Aleppo is in general mainly by mercenaries or “paramilitaries.” The strike force created for the attack on this site is composed of Hazaras and Iranians. Further bombing of ISIS will be particularly scrutinized, while there is no indication that it’s over. While it is possible to say that the Kremlin gave in to the blackmail, which in itself is extremely dangerous. Now we need to wait for new ultimatums and possibly action.
But the main thing is if the Turks & Toads finally launch their actions in Syria, even the tentative plans of the Kremlin to force the West to negotiate on Syria under Russian conditions, can be safely scrapped (смело ставить крест). The problem will not be how to divide up Syria, but how to avoid getting kicked out altogether (а как унести ноги). I have repeatedly seen analysis of the probable collision scenarios of Russia and Turkey. All are completely stupid, like “But we would want Topol-M,” until (someone has yet to make) quite professional comparison of the combat capabilities of the navies and ground forces. They are all (guilty of) one sin: (they imagine that) there will be no full-scale confrontations with Turkey; either the Kremlin finally will break the thread, or in Syria will be some “Black Swan” character analogous to Strelkov in the Donbass, which will break all advance plans for an amicable get-together. But where is Syria, where the Donbass? All the evidence suggests that the Turks & Toads intend to act solely on Syrian territory, which means no naval battles, no tank wedges, everything will be decided on the level of tactics. And the Syrian theatre for us is definitely losing, is not the slightest chance of (winning). Too small group, too vulnerable supply lines. Plus Turkey to speak about the introduction of a no-fly zone without prior arrangement over all of Syria in the event of the operation. After the Turks had shot down our plane, there is no reason to doubt in their words, just as there is no doubt in our answer: all we can do is to (stop the import of) Turkish tomatoes, the Kremlin is too weak for anything more muscular than that. These are the actions of the parties, and they should be considered in any collision scenarios. A Topol-M or a fleet are out of the question. At least for our tall-fur-hatted one (Senka Shapka, Сеньке шапка, presumably Putin as usual – RB). To steal something or quietly shit under the door, yes, it is safe to turn to that. But seriously, you can safely ignore the Kremlin. Not publicly, (but privately, now) she would do anything. After the meeting of our Patriarch and the Pope, I wouldn’t be surprised if our Orthodox (Christians) awoke one fine morning to find themselves Catholics. That would please the West.
The truce in Syria or successful blackmail
Anatoly Nesmiyan (El Murid, Fontanka, Feb 13 2016
The sequence of events also gives no reason for optimism. The impetus for them was the establishment of the blockade of Aleppo from the north after Syrian troops (or rather, the “paramilitary” groups of Hazaras, Iranians and Iraqis) were able to sever the supply corridor and cut off the city from the Turkish border. Turkey rejected all the conventions and began to prepare for the invasion of Syria. Turkish cooking was supported by Toads and the “Islamic coalition.” Preparations of the Turks & Toads for the first time did not look like a bluff, began to outline the contours of the invasion. Against this background, the Russian leadership openly flinched and offered a truce starting Mar 1, which was immediately rejected. The meeting between Lavrov and Jackass concluded by moving forward the start of the truce. It should start in a week. However, it is not clear what is meant by a truce: fighting will continue against ISIS and Nusra. How to distinguish the fighters from one gang from those of another is unclear. Turkey, realizing that Russia faltered, put forward a direct ultimatum: in her opinion, a truce means a cessation of bombing of the entire “moderate opposition” and therefore the attack on Aleppo should be shuttered permanently. To occupy a city of half a million without aircraft, using ground-based “paramilitary” groups alone, is an almost impossible task, especially because the blockade is not yet completed finally. In general, the war in Syria more and more becomes one of the most unsuccessful wars in Russia’s history. Unclear goals and objectives from the start were not given the opportunity to understand what will be considered victory, and what is not. Bomb the villages, barns and carts, pretending them to be strategic goals and the fight against terrorism, only on TV. In TV can tell you about thousands and tens of thousands fleeing militants and other this-time raspberries (разлюли малину). In reality, after four months, the Syrian offensive remains so far unable to recapture the territories lost in the spring offensive of 2015. At that time, Assad lost the province of Idlib completely. There is no question of a general Idlib offensive to take it back.
(Despite some) tactical successes, none of the operational tasks of the Syrians have been achieved. They have not taken control of the border with Turkey, (though) troops destroyed some Jihadis in the north. In such circumstances, to fight with ISIS is meaningless: to create a strike force for war with ISIS is impossible without freeing the army from fighting with “moderates.” The truce means that the military objectives of the offensive are not attained, so accordingly there is nothing to negotiate about. Negotiations make sense either from a position of strength, or exhaustion of the parties. Without solving military tasks, to talk about the position of strength is not possible. The Jihadis also do not look exhausted, whatever is said on TV. Every step of the Syrians is made with great difficulty. The truce itself in such conditions looks like a collapse of all previous plans. It is really beginning to look like the memorable “Annan plan” of 2012, by which the West saved the militants in Homs, and allowed the summer offensive on Damascus and Aleppo to begin. This is very reminiscent of the halting of the militia of Donbass in the summer of 2014, when the defeated AFU were saved by the Minsk process, and today the rebuilt Ukrainian army is hanging over the Donbass, Crimea and Transnistria. The main thing is that the truce in the background of the actual ultimatum by the Turks & Toads looks like a “surrender” to blackmail by our adversaries, and it is the most dangerous (behaviour possible), as a successful blackmail will be repeated again and again. By the way, this is not a theory. In practice, the Toads have already started the deployment of ground forces and aviation at the Turkish base. Announced today. Grouping of Toad military in Jordan also hangs over the southern border of Syria. Jackass Kerry today stated that the Syrians have lost the opportunity to negotiate. The pressure will not go away, it grows. Blackmail, once acceded to, will continue indefinitely.