Unprecedented Projected Nuclear Growth in the ME:
Now Is the Time to Create Effective Barriers to Proliferation
David Albright, Andrea Scheel, ISIS, Nov 12 2008 (pdf)
Large civil plutonium stocks are set to accumulate for the first time in the wider ME over the next two decades. Countries in this conflict prone region are planning the construction of at least 12 to 13 new nuclear power reactors. Using a simple calculation to determine the expected plutonium discharge annually from these reactors, ISIS estimates that regional civil plutonium production could total more than 13,000 kg by 2020 and nearly 45,000 kg by 2030. Given that just 8 kg of plutonium is enough to fabricate a nuclear weapon, this figure is significant. These quantities indicate that by 2020 the region may possess enough plutonium for almost 1700 nuclear weapons. To be usable in a nuclear weapon, this plutonium must first be separated from the irradiated fuel in reprocessing plants. ME countries may seek to purchase civil reprocessing plants from suppliers or build them using their domestic capabilities and equipment purchased from abroad. To reduce the risk of proliferation in the ME and help lay the basis for a regionwide nuclear weapon free zone, the US must ensure that plutonium is not separated from irradiated reactor fuel, insist on adequate international inspections of these countries, including the adoption of the Additional Protocol, and develop mechanisms to remove spent fuel from the region. Absent such conditions, the incoming administration should discourage the development of nuclear power. These goals are consistent with the recommendations of the WMD Commission chaired by Hans Blix. This commission called on all states in the ME to commit themselves for a prolonged period of time to a verified arrangement not to have any enrichment, reprocessing or other sensitive fuel-cycle activities on their territories.
Nuclear power has gained popularity in the ME due to projected power shortages in countries with growing populations. Oil producing nations also want to supplement domestic energy needs to allow for export of more oil and gas. Critics often note that oil exporting countries have little need to supplement existing energy sources with nuclear power. However, high international oil prices have led some oil exporting nations, flush with cash, to consider costly nuclear power reactors over other alternatives. The US and other NSG countries have not succeeded in addressing the threat posed by looming plutonium stockpiles in the ME. Because of growing insecurity in the ME, resulting from Iran’s nuclear progress in defiance of UNSC demands, other countries will likely start to consider their own options, perhaps including the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Ensuring the absence of plutonium separation and uranium enrichment capabilities and minimizing stocks of plutonium will reduce the proliferation threat in this unstable region. The US should align its policies with the goal of reducing the risk posed by civil nuclear power programs especially in regions of tension like the ME. It should steadfastly discourage civil reprocessing of irradiated power reactor fuel both domestically and internationally. Where reprocessing already exists it should work to minimize the size of separated plutonium stockpiles. To reduce the threat of proliferation in the ME, the US should work to accomplish the following goals:
A New Norm: No Supply of Nuclear Reactors
without Additional Protocol in Force.
Suppliers of nuclear reactors should insist that a recipient country has the AP in force. This condition is especially important in the ME. An important indicator of increased risk of proliferation in the ME has been when a state does not implement the AP. Traditional safeguards are not adequate to detect countries conducting secret plutonium separation or enrichment efforts. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Algeria, and Libya evaded detection of their clandestine nuclear programs despite permitting traditional inspections by the IAEA. In the case of Libya, part of its evasion strategy was to refuse to accept the more intrusive inspections embodied in the IAEA’s AP. Without the AP and often further transparency measures in place, the IAEA cannot provide adequate assurances that a country’s nuclear energy program is purely civilian in nature. Currently, of fifteen ME countries that have expressed interest in nuclear power, fewer than half have signed or ratified the AP. Only Jordon, Turkey, Libya, and Kuwait have the AP in force; Iran, Iraq, Morocco, and Tunisia have signed it. Iran suspended its compliance with the AP in early 2006, in defiance of the UNSC. Despite this move, Russia has continued construction of the Bushehr reactor. Egypt announced in 2007 that it would not sign the AP, yet Russia has given no indication that it will prevent its firms from bidding to build a nuclear reactor at El Dabaa. The Obama administration should work to institutionalize the norm that the supply of a nuclear reactor requires that a state have the AP in force.
Voluntary Moratorium on Reprocessing
and Enrichment in the ME.
ME countries seeking nuclear power should agree to a moratorium on the development of reprocessing and enrichment capabilities. Egypt has rejected such a moratorium. In September 2008, Egypt’s ambassador to the US, Nabil Fahmy, rejected such a moratorium, saying, “if we’re looking at enrichment by way of a proliferation issue, then … you bring in other factors, such as what are other states doing, who has it, who does not.” The UAE has recently indicated that it may renounce acquisition of these capabilities and rely on supplier countries for both fuel provision and spent fuel repatriation. UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan stated that “the Government of the UAE has … adopted a policy renouncing the development of any domestic enrichment or reprocessing capabilities in favor of long-term arrangements for the external supply of nuclear fuel.” Such announcements are beneficial to reducing the threat of proliferation and should be encouraged as a matter of US policy.
NSG Agreement Not to Provide Reprocessing
and Enrichment Technology
The NSG should agree to refuse sales of reprocessing and enrichment technologies to countries in the ME and elsewhere where proliferation remains a concern, including to countries that have not signed the NPT. A small number of ME countries may argue that they need to purchase civil uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing technologies. They can be expected to argue that such facilities would serve as a regional supplier for enriched uranium fuel for power reactors, or a regional reprocessing plant, where plutonium could be extracted for recycling spent fuel for re-use in power reactors as mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel. Media reports said that the Turkish government is interested in obtaining an enrichment plant, though the government later denied such plans. Nonetheless, at the June 2008 NSG meeting, Turkey objected to a regional ban on the supply of uranium enrichment or reprocessing plants. Such capabilities are not necessary in the ME for nuclear power to thrive at least during the next several decades, yet would significantly increase the risk of proliferation.
Spent Fuel Take-back and Fuel Assurances
Reactor suppliers in cooperation with other NSG members and the IAEA should negotiate spent fuel take-back arrangements as well as a guaranteed fuel supply with ME countries. Russia has done so with Iran’s Bushehr reactor. Although these arrangements would leave a country with a considerable amount of plutonium-rich spent fuel, they would cap the amount of plutonium in the country and remove all of it after the reactor shuts down, preventing the emergence of ‘plutonium depots’. It is important that any take-back arrangements not be equivalent to reprocessing contracts with a supplier country, such as those that France and Britain signed years ago with Japan and several European countries. Otherwise, ME countries could obtain nuclear weapons-usable plutonium in separated form or as MOX fuel.
Verifiable Fissile Cutoff Treaty
The Obama administration should make a key priority of persuading Israel to join the negotiations of a universal, verified treaty that bans the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium for nuclear explosives, commonly called the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT). As an interim step, the US should press Israel to suspend any production of fissile material for nuclear weapons. Toward this goal, the US should change its relatively new policy of seeking a cutoff treaty that does not include verification. The Bush administration’s rejection of the long-standing US policy of requiring verification was a mistake that the incoming administration needs to rectify.
Conclusion
The initiatives outlined above would establish international confidence in the peaceful nature of ME nuclear programs. These steps are vital to gaining the future support of all nations in the region for a ME zone free of nuclear weapons. An appropriate confidence building measure would include the re-creation of a multilateral negotiation forum for sustained discussion about a regional NWFZ and other pressing security issues. Because of the volatility of the ME and the high potential for nuclear proliferation, the Obama administration must take the lead in creating more effective barriers to proliferation before these nuclear reactors are constructed.