(Tedious referencees to “stocks of chemical weapons falling into the hands of rebels” omitted or substituted with “advanced weapons supplied to Hezbollah” as and where appropriate to clarify the real point – RB)
Israeli Airstrike in Syria Targets Arms Convoy, US Says
Isabel Kershner, Michael Gordon, NYT, Jan 30 2013
Israeli warplanes carried out a strike deep inside Syrian territory on Wednesday, US officials reported, saying they believed the target was a convoy carrying sophisticated anti-aircraft weaponry on the outskirts of Damascus that was intended for Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Israel had notified the US about the attack, which the Syrian government condemned as an act of “arrogance and aggression.” Israel’s move demonstrated its determination to ensure that Hezbollah is unable to take advantage of the chaos in Syria to bolster its arsenal significantly. The predawn strike was the first time in more than five years that Israel’s air force had attacked a target in Syria. In a statement, the Syrian military denied that a convoy had been struck. It said the attack had hit a scientific research facility in the Damascus suburbs that was used to improve Syria’s defenses, and called the attack “a flagrant breach of Syrian sovereignty and airspace.” The airstrike came after days of intense security consultations with Netanyahu regarding the possible movement of weapons around Syria, and warnings that Jerusalem would take action to thwart any possible transfers to Hezbollah. On Sunday, Israel deployed its Iron Dome missile defense system in the north, near Haifa, which was heavily bombed during the 2006 war with Lebanon. Danny Yatom, a former chief of the Mossad, told Ynet:
It is necessary and correct to prepare for deterioration. That scenario exists. But in my assessment, there will not be a reaction, because neither Hezbollah nor the Syrians have an interest in retaliating. Assad is deep in his own troubles, and Hezbollah is making a great effort to assist him, in parallel with its efforts to obtain weapons, so they won’t want to broaden the circle of fighting.
Hezbollah, which plays a decisive role in Lebanese politics and has supported Assad during the uprising by providing training and logistical support to his forces, has long relied on Syria as both a source of weapons and a conduit for weapons flowing from Iran. Some analysts think Hezbollah may be trying to stock up on weapons in case Assad falls and is replaced by a leadership that is hostile to the militia. One US official said the trucks targeted on Wednesday were believed to have been carrying sophisticated SA-17 antiaircraft weapons. Matthew Levitt, a former intelligence official now at WINEP, said:
Hezbollah’s possession of such weapons would be a serious worry for the Israeli government. Israel is able to exploit Lebanese airspace with impunity right now. This could cut into its ability to do so. The passing along of weapons to Hezbollah by the regime is a real concern.
While some analysts said the Assad government might be providing the weapons to Hezbollah as a reward for its support, others were skeptical that Syria would relinquish such a sophisticated system. Hezbollah has boasted that it has replenished and increased its weapons stocks since the 2006 war with Israel. During that war, Israeli bombardments destroyed some of its arms, and other missiles were used in a barrage that reached as far south as Haifa. The Syrian statement, carried by state television, said an unidentified number of Israeli jets flying below radar had hit the research facility in the Jimraya district, killing two people and causing “huge material damage.” It cast the attack as “another addition to the history of Israeli occupation, aggression and criminality against Arabs and Muslims.” The statement said:
The Syrian government points out to the international community that this Israeli arrogance and aggression is dangerous for Syrian sovereignty, and stresses that such criminal acts will not weaken Syria’s role nor will discourage Syrians from continuing to support resistance movements and just Arab causes, particularly the Palestinian issue.
The Lebanese Army said in a statement on Wednesday that Israeli warplanes had carried out two sorties, circling over Lebanon for hours on Tuesday and before dawn on Wednesday, but made no mention of any attacks. Israel never admitted to the bombing of a (purported – RB) Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007. Syria kept mum about that attack, too, and the ambiguity allowed the event to pass without Damascus feeling pressure to retaliate. Amnon Sofrin, a retired brigadier general and former Israeli intelligence officer, told reporters here on Wednesday that Hezbollah, which is known to have been storing some of its more advanced weapons in Syria, was now eager to move everything it could to Lebanon. He said Israel was carefully watching for convoys transferring weapons systems from Syria to Lebanon. Israel has made it clear that if the Syrian government transfers advanced weapons to Hezbollah, Israel will feel compelled to act. Avi Dichter, the minister for the home front, told Israel Radio on Tuesday that options to prevent Syria from using or transferring advanced weapons included deterrence and attempts to hit the stockpiles. Dichter said:
Everything will have ramifications. The stockpiles are not always in places where operative thinking is possible. It could be that hitting the stockpiles will also mean hitting people. Israel has no intention of hitting residents of Syria.
Israeli Jets Blast Arms Shipment Inside Syria
Farnaz Fassihi, Julian Barnes, Sam Dagher, WSJ, Jan 30 2013
Israel launched an airstrike against a convoy of trucks moving near the Lebanon-Syria border Tuesday, a senior US official and a Lebanese security official said. The early morning strike in a border area west of Damascus targeted a convoy of trucks carrying Russian-made SA-17 missiles to Hezbollah, according to a Western official briefed on the raid. Timor Gokselof the American University in Beirut said:
An attack of any kind is a major escalation. Why would Israel do this out of the blue?
The answer, according to several Western officials, is that Israel took a calculated risk that Syria’s government would choose not to retaliate, and that Hezbollah and Iran would also be unlikely to strike back at Israel now. In addition to taking out weapons that could be used by Hezbollah against Israeli warplanes in a future conflict, Israel sent what amounted to a message of warning to Assad and Iran against attempting to transfer any advanced weapons to Hezbollah, US and Western officials said. Syria maintained that the accounts of a strike on an arms convoy near the country’s border with Lebanon were wrong. Instead, Syria’s military said, Israeli jets had attacked a military facility near Damascus. Syria’s military said in a statement carried by the official Sana news agency:
Israeli warplanes violated our airspace at dawn today and directly struck one of the scientific research centers responsible for elevating resistance and self-defense capabilities in the area of Jamraya in the Damascus countryside. The attack killed two workers and injured five others, and caused significant material damage and the destruction of the complex and an adjacent parking lot.
The Jamraya site is in a mountainous area of military facilities and training camps located on a heavily guarded road just off the main Damascus-Beirut highway. Later Wednesday, a US official said the accounts of two targets weren’t mutually exclusive. The US believes Israeli warplanes bombed a Hezbollah-bound convoy of antiaircraft missiles, US officials said. The vehicles may have been close to a military facility, they said, cautioning their information remained incomplete. On Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel is vigilantly watching the disintegration of Syria and the fate of its “deadly weapons.” Israel’s army deployed an Iron Dome missile-defense system in northern Israel that same day. Two days later, four Israeli jets flew low over villages in southern Lebanon, a violation of the country’s airspace, according to the Lebanese military. A spokesman for UNIFIL said the group had recorded a higher-than-usual number of Israeli jets entering Lebanon’s airspace in the past few days. Gen Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese security official, said:
Hezbollah keeps a stockpile of weapons in military bases in Syria located near the Lebanese border. As Syria’s security has deteriorated, Hezbollah has grown increasingly concerned that its weapons cache could fall into the hands of rebels. Hezbollah has decided that it’s no longer safe to keep the weapons sheltered inside Syria. They want to bring them back before it’s too late.
For months, Israeli officials have also spoken of the risk that Syria’s weapons caches might fall into the hands of Hezbollah amid the civil war, and vowed to act if necessary. Israel has worried about specific types of weapons that would mark a game-changing shift on the battlefield in a future conflict with Hezbollah. If Hezbollah were to obtain the SA-17 missiles, it would limit Israel’s air superiority in Lebanon. Hezbollah denied that Israel had attacked a convoy of its weapons in Syria. Hezbollah spokesman Ibrahim Mousawi:
We have no information about this issue. We are not concerned at all.
An attack on Syria would be a relative rarity for Israeli forces. In November, Israel said its forces had targeted and hit a Syrian military vehicle after a Syrian mortar shell landed in the Golan Heights. The retaliatory attack was the only previously reported Israeli attack inside Syria since 2007, when Israel attacked a site in Syria in 2007 that was suspected of being a nuclear facility under construction. The Israeli government has declined to confirm or deny that strike. Prof Gerald Steinberg of Bar Ilan University said:
Israel has a long history of intercepting and preventing weapons that are on their way to terror groups, whether it is Hamas or Hezbollah.
Israel has typically maintained silence amid allegations of pre-emptive attacks, a stance Israeli analysts and Western officials alike view as an effort to avoid escalating hostilities. Aram Nerguizian of CSIS said:
The usual way this plays out is, the Israelis won’t take credit, whoever suffered the effects will divert attention or try to downplay it. The Israelis got their point across. If anyone had any questions that Israel would act on what it perceives to be its red lines, now they have an answer.
Niqnaq 