what i think will happen

It seems to me that the Pindosis will probably launch a conventional war against Russia anyway, as soon as they can. Novorossia has essentially surrendered, despite a lot of smoke and mirrors from Zakh in particular trying to suggest the contrary, and the Kiev 404 junta is going to pile in with a massive occupation force, huge garrisons in every city, flying squads scouring the villages, and probably a continuing stream of atrocities. We know what a 404 occupation looks like, from for instance Slavyansk or Mariupol, and it’s not very nice. It is definitely a Nazi style of occupation, quite consciously so, and Novorossia has absolutely no underground networks of Communist militants who are technically prepared to take up the struggle under those conditions. This is ironic, because if we compare the Nazi occupation of France during WW2, there were such networks, precisely because France was not and had never been a Communist country. But because Ukraine was a Communist country for so many years, all the elements of what might otherwise have been a militant Communist underground were liquidated long ago.

I believe that the Pindosi/NATO war against Russia will be a conventional one. I also believe that the Russian response will be a conventional one, despite the statement by the Russian General Staff, which was approved by then-Pres Medvedev in Feb 2010, which said: “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.” I anticipate a speech from Putin, going something like this:

It appears that despite all our efforts aimed at conciliation, the Pindosis are determined to wage war against the Russian Federation. It seems that they have realised that mere economic warfare is not enough to bring the Russian Federation to its knees. Indeed, we have proved our ability to withstand all forms of merely economic warfare, sanctions, and so on, and we shall do so again. But a raw military assault is now obviously impending, and I have spoken with President Obama via the well-known Hot Line, which was established many years ago for just such contingencies, and we have reached certain limited agreements. I should like to inform the world of their contents.

First of all, I have undertaken to President Obama that the Russian Federation will not make first use of its nuclear weapons. In return, he has made the same reciprocal undertaking to me, on behalf of the United States of America. Therefore, if neither side will make first use of nuclear weapons, then there will be no nuclear weapons used. This is extremely important. Russia knows well what the cost of a conventional war waged across Western Russia and Eastern Europe will be. We have experienced this before, under the onslaught of Adolf Hitler and his German Nazis and their allies. If you remember, we lost 20 million members of our population in that war. If necessary, we are prepared to suffer the same losses again, rather than surrender to the new Nazis, with President Obama at their head. But I am not prepared, even under those circumstances, to take the first step in a nuclear escalation which will lead to a ‘nuclear winter’ and the extinction of civilisation upon Earth. I will not do it. And nor will President Obama. That is the sum total of our agreement.

I should like to reassure you that there is no danger of an Army coup, or a coup by the commanders of the Missile Forces, or any type of coup in Russia which might affect this decision or overturn it. The military forces of the Russian Federation will remain under the command of the political echelon. Similarly, I do not believe that the authority of President Obama can possibly be overturned by any form of right-wing imperialist coup in the United States of America. I believe that President Obama is now leading a Nazi coalition, that NATO has become a Nazi coalition, and I consider its doctrines to be no better than those of Adolf Hitler, seventy years ago. But even in such a coalition, the military remains subordinate to the political echelon. As a matter of fact, if you study the history of Nazi Germany, you can see this fact abundantly confirmed. Though there were a number of schemes developed behind the back of Hitler, they were aimed at surrender to the forces of Britain, the USA and the USSR. They were not schemes to escalate the war against his will. And none of them, not the schemes of Schellenberg or the schemes of Himmler, ever came to fruition. Hitler remained in control until the end. And I believe this will be true of President Obama, also. As for our side, you can rest assured that the authority of the Kremlin is unshakable.

I should also like to say that we shall not be the first to resort to strategic bombing. Our missiles, even without nuclear warheads, are capable of devastating the cities of Western Europe. However, we shall not do this. We shall restrict our attacks to purely military targets, though some of them may be a considerable distance behind the so-called ‘front lines’, ie major marshalling points, military transport hubs, armaments plants and so on. We do not wish to initiate a ‘war of the cities’, aiming to devastate the civilian populations under the always dishonest excuse that these civilian populations will then demand of their leaders that the war be brought to an end. We shall not be the first to resort to such methods….

All very nice. He’s a well-intentioned man, President Putin, and that perhaps is a major cause of his misfortune. But anyway, I believe that a certain sort of coup is quite possible, and under war conditions it may well happen. This would be what the Murid calls an ‘apical coup’, ie a coup at the top, a palace coup. It would be masterminded by the FSB. And it would place Igor Strelkov in the President’s chair.