colonel cassad for wednesday to thursday

Iran will continue its operations against Pindostan
Colonel Cassad, Jan 9 2020

Behind the commander of the rocket forces of the IRGC are the flags of Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi Ansar Allah, the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi, the Palestinian Hamas, and the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Liwa Zainebiyoun. The Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected the Pindo offer of negotiations without preconditions, as having no meaning. Pindostan wants regime change in Iran, while Iran wants to expel Pindostan from the Middle East. Platform for compromise was missing. The leadership of the IRGC said that the operations against Pindostan will continue across the region. The strike on Pindo bases in Iraq is not the end of the Iranian response, but only its beginning. Shelling Pindo bases did not aim to kill enemy soldiers, but was directed against the Pindo military infrastructure. According to the statement of the IRGC, it would not have been difficult for Iran to plan a retaliation which would have killed up to 500 Pindos in the first wave, and 4,000 or 5,000 in the second and third waves, but preference was given to a limited impact on the infrastructure, so instead of hundreds or even thousands of missiles Iran launched only half a dozen. The fact that the Pindo defenses did not hit any incoming missiles, says that Pindostan cannot respond to the missile troops of the IRGC, who also actively used cyber-attacks and electronic warfare against Pindo air defense systems and UAVs in Iraq. The leadership of the IRGC says that Pindostan is hiding information about losses occasioned by hits on the airbase Ayn al-Assad. Operation “Martyr Soleimani” is not finished. It will continue until Pindo troops have left the region. Those Gulf States that will pander to Pindostan will regret it.

In fact, the IRGC did not disclose any unprecedented secrets, just informed that the hybrid war in the region will continue, and the intention of Iran has not changed. Those who believed that Iran was frightened by the threats of Trump and had begun to revise its aim were very naive. On the contrary, Iran will carry out its aim more actively and consistently, and the role of the hawks in Iranian politics, reduced by the JCPoA, is growing again. Purely pragmatic or religious reasons lead to this Iranian policy. To this is added now the motive of revenge for the nation’s hero and martyr, which will draw a lot of Iranians and Shiites across the region into the structures carrying out this policy. It is quite obvious that Iran needs to meet Pindostan directly at the first opportunity, and is eager to return to the usual strategy of asymmetric warfare, avoiding direct military confrontation with Pindostan, which in itself promises nothing good about Iran, due to the difference in military capabilities, but increasing the pressure (on Pindostan) from the pro-Iranian movements across the region. History suggests that Iran needs ways to achieve the goal of Pindostan quite regularly suffering defeats in the confrontation with the rebel movements, each acting in terms of the need to free their territories and rebellious populations from Pindo occupation. So it was in Vietnam, so it is in Afghanistan, and the same has occurred in Somalia, on a local scale. Iran is interested to repeat this scenario in Iraq and Syria, where Iran can expect the aid of Russia, and receives support formally from local forces associated with Iran, intending to create unbearable conditions of stay in these countries for Pindostan and force it to leave.

The most recent example of this kind of success is the Pindo withdrawal from the Toad coalition and their cessation of direct involvement in the Yemeni war, since the Pentagon realized a little earlier in Riyadh that the war had stalled, that military victory over the Houthis was unlikely, and that a war of attrition with the Houthis had no prospects. Iran is not averse to repeat this scenario in Iraq, using Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl’al-Haq and others, offering alternatives to the implementation of the decision of the Iraqi Parliament. That means the leaders of the IRGC Quds Force and other structures will work in the next phase of the great Iranian retribution, where the aim of course isn’t dead Pindo soldiers or diplomats, which would only be a means to an end, namely the withdrawal of Pindo troops, something Soleimani actually achieved. How Iran will move in this direction, without regard to how many Pindos it will kill or how many Iranians will be killed, it will be possible to tell whether they have successfully avenged Gen Soleimani or not. In fact, the IRGC just announced the transition of Iran to the next stage of retribution, where the main tool will not actually be missiles launched from Iran but from the friends of Iran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine, Afghanistan etc. Iran will seek implementation of the decision of the Iraqi Parliament on the withdrawal of Pindo troops from Iraq in this way, and also pursue its entirely peaceful nuclear program more actively. So the haircut has only just begun. The options of Pindostan will be considered in a separate article.

Visualization of the death of Ukrainian Boeing
Colonel Cassad, Jan 9 2020

Computer reconstruction of death of the Ukrainian Boeing near Tehran.

The fall of the Ukrainian Boeing. Video from a surveillance camera.

Zits (Зиц), President of Ukraine made an appeal over the death of Boeing.

The situation is this: Reuters quotes sources in Western intelligence as saying that the cause of the crash was the fault of the engine. In parallel, the media are trying to spin a version that the Boeing was shot down by mistake by an Iranian Tor rocket. The media use a photo of the wreckage, hinting that some of the marks on the skin look like traces of rocket submunitions, then they parade an unsourced photo of the tail of a rocket. Iran now decides how to carry out the accident investigation, and it not in a hurry to give the black boxes to the West, demonstrating that Tehran consider and act on their own terms following the sad experience of Russia, which handed over the investigation of MH17 to its own enemies. Despite numerous explanations, the version that it was a Boeing 737 Max continues to circulate. It is not. Kolomoisky’s airline used an older model of the Boeing, which is actually more reliable than the infamous newer Boeing. In the official report of Iran, it said that just before the crash, the plane tried to return to the airport due to a technical fault. The plane caught fire in the air before the crash. The black boxes are damaged, but the information is preserved. Iran will report the contents to Canada, Pindostan, Ukraine and Sweden.

Briefly on Iraq
Colonel Cassad, Jan 9 2020

Iranian TV claims that the attack used rockets with fragmentation warheads. Regarding the inoperative air defenses, Pindo media claim that Patriots were not employed because they are not sited on these bases. Do not confuse this story with the attack on the Toad Aramco refinery, where the Patriots screwed up completely. We already know that Iran has warned of impending strikes on Iraq and Qatar. Iraq is able to avoid causing any Pindo casualties in the strikes, although yesterday the Pindo media and Pentagon sources said that any casualties on the base of ‘Ayn al-Assad were Iraqi ones. Iraq and Qatar could transmit information about the time and place of a Pindo attack that with a high probability was done under the guise of stories about detection system. We will return to this topic in a separate article. Iran said today that its overt response was finished, which suggests that it intends to return to its traditional asymmetric methods. Tonight again fired at the Green Zone in Baghdad, 2 rockets fell inside the Green zone without reaching the Pindo embassy. With high probability, the attack was the handiwork of either Kataib Hezbollah or Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which will make life in Iraq less safe, as part of the process of implementation of the decision on the expulsion of Pindo troops from Iraq. This is the main goal of Iran, and serious struggle will unfold around this goal in the near future, as Pindostan has made it clear that having suffered defeat in the vote on the withdrawal of Pindo troops, they will try to present it as a “temporary victory of Iran” and to disavow the decision of the parliament, after the formation of the new government of Iraq.

The Iran crisis in foreign caricature
Colonel Cassad, Jan 9 2020

War with Iran is postponed
Colonel Cassad, Jan 8 2020

With a considerable delay, Trump explained the Pindo position on the Iran situation. Significant. The main result of the application, an immediate attack on Iran is not planned. On the contrary, Pindostan is “ready to make peace with Iran” and to build a “bright future.” According to Trump, the Pindos suffered no casualties, and the infrastructure has suffered limited damage. Trump plans to impose new sanctions on Iran, even more powerful than the former, and will not remove the sanctions until Iran changes its behavior. Pindostan will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and appeals to Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia to work together on this. Strengthening Iran is Obama’s fault, and Iraq is a very ungrateful country. In general, most of Trump’s speech was devoted to excuses not to bomb Iran after it bombed Pindo military installations. Just consider the simple fact that for the first time in a very long time a sovereign state has inflicted a military strike upon the Pindo army, and Pindostan has offered “peace with Iran” and abandoned military action. On the one hand they will say that this was arranged two days ago and announced by Qatari sources. On the other hand, even if it was fixed, if you believe the Qataris, Pindostan offered Iran the freedom to “do a little dance here with their military objectives” to avoid the threat of a major war. Frankly, this is quite a pathetic position for the sole superpower which just recently promised to pulverize even the Iranian cultural objects. But it is enough to look at the deep shadow of the former Pindo greatness, the current status of hegemon in the Middle East is not so strong as it was when such devilry (распальцовка) in the style of Bush Jr made an indelible impression on impressionable states still rooted in the past. The story of the murder of Soleimani and subsequent events is enough to demonstrate that. That of course does not negate the possibility that the arsonists of war with Iran may still get their way and find a pretext for a full-fledged war.

The consequences of an Iranian strike
Colonel Cassad, Jan 8 2020

Satellite pictures of the aftermath of strikes by Iranian ballistic missiles at the Pindo air base Ayn al-Assad. They illustrate the fact that Iran was careful not to do any more damage to Pindo targets than it did.

The Iranian response
Colonel Cassad, Jan 8 2020

While we await the Pindo response, it is possible to draw some intermediate conclusions about the Iranian response to the murder of General Soleimani. Iran has achieved adoption by the Parliament of Iraq’s formal decision on the withdrawal of Pindo troops. Iran is completely out of the nuclear deal, and now not constrained by limits on enrichment of uranium. Iran has undertaken a limited demonstrative attack on Pindo bases in Iraq, as part of the IRGC;s Operation Martyr Soleimani. Iran has filed complaints against Pindostan and justified its own actions of Iran in the international structures, before the UN Secretary General and the UNSC. Various Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have announced additional measures in response to the murder Soleimani and Muhandis. In general, the first two points are significant because they seriously change the overall situation in the Middle East, and will have lasting consequences beyond this particular stage in the escalation of force. A limited strike on Pindo bases shows that Iran could not refrain from responding, especially given the sentiment of the masses and the public statements of politicians, but that it prefers to stick to the asymmetrical approach towards its main objective, associated with squeezing Pindostan out of the region, and issues specific revenge, he wants to assign as its proxy, which will operate outside of the open strike, which Iran accompanies the plug from threats and retaliation by Iran means a major war, the rejection of retaliation for deescalation. So the impact is positioned as a limited and demonstrative, and not as bloody retribution, where the aim was to murder large numbers of people. Hence the dualism of the Iranian state and non-state rhetoric on one side radical threats to destroy Dubai, Haifa, and tel Aviv and us bases in the region, on the other hand indications of the legitimacy of a limited response with reference to the 51st article of the UN Charter and the willingness to de-escalate.

The second part of the message addressed to the EU and the Pindo Demagog Party, which use statements by Tehran to put pressure on the Trump administration, pointing out that this is a provocation by Trump which has brought the situation to the threat of war. In Faschingstein, even against the background of strikes Iran on Pindo bases, speakers from the Demagog Party have more blamed Trump for causing the situation, and not Tehran. If Trump and the neocons decide to strike, then the measures will allow Iran to shift the responsibility to Pindostan for starting the war, and even in Pindostan, the Iranian arguments will find understanding. If Pindostan refuses to respond, it will set a precedent whereby a direct attack on Pindo targets by another state actually remains unanswered, which will allow Iran to play propaganda in the Middle East that Pindostan fears Iran’s response, simultaneously destroying their propaganda slogan that Iran is afraid to attack Pindostan, while retaining the ability to cause Pindostan further damage using proxy formations in different countries. In general, the ball is in the court of the Pindos and their choice is simple: either a big war that will engulf the whole region, or deescalation followed by withdrawal in the medium term,m as the situation in Iraq is in any case highly unstable both from the political point of view and from the security point of view. It is worth recalling that a few days ago, Qatari media reported that Faschongstein was using the Qatari Emir to convey to Tehran offers to tolerate damage “restricted to local impact,” which would allow the two sides to avoid war. So fraudulent messages on victims and destruction are not surprising: the spread of numbers is from zero according to the Pentagon, up to 80 dead and 300 injured according to Iranian sources. If both sides are willing to leave the situation under “light response,” the theme of death and destruction will not be too hard to back-pedal, consigning these questions to routine information war or psychological war. Trump will speak in the morning, Pindo time, so the wait is long. You can follow developments in the Middle East on the online broadcast here. Today the number of subscribers of the channel increased from 24,000 to almost 32,000, which is enough of an indicator of the development of Telegram against the background of Live Journal.

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